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Fold the river or call?

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maheepsangari
Joined: 08.06.2010

Cake Poker, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $29.76 (148.8 bb)
BB: $18.46 (92.3 bb)
MP: $9.43 (47.2 bb)
Hero (CO): $21.56 (107.8 bb)
BTN: $45.70 (228.5 bb) 20/13, AF 1.8 ,3bet 9.8 , Flop fold to cbet 56%(9), WTSD 31% W$SD 60%, F/T/R AF 1.8/1.4/2.7, F/T/R Agg% 19/25/38 282 hands

Preflop: Hero is CO with A K
MP folds, Hero raises to $0.60, BTN calls $0.60, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.50) 2 K 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, BTN calls $0.80

Turn: ($3.10) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($3.10) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.20, BTN raises to $5.40, Hero???


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5 replies
Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Hey Maheepsangari,

Preflop is fine.

Flop cbet for value is fine.

I think turn check is completely reasonable at these limits with the intention of x/c , x/c. At higher limits we can bet turn since we will be perceived to barrel this card frequently.

River would bet/call (although one of the weakest hands I'm doing this with). Opponent can be value-raising worse 2pair or even an Ax given our line.


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maheepsangari Topic starter
maheepsangari
Joined: 08.06.2010

I think there are very less 2 pairs he can have, he is kinda nitty and I don't expect him to have many of the 2 pair combos possible here.

I think only 2 pairs are maybe A9s (just one combo possible) and 89s maybe sometimes (2 combos possible)

A8 is completely out, K9 is also very unlikely and stuff like 92, 82 is almost never.

So what do you think after taking these ranges into account, cause he is nitty, or am I being too nitty?


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maheepsangari Topic starter
maheepsangari
Joined: 08.06.2010

Bump


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Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Hey,

We don't really have any info on his cold-calling range so it's not impossible he calls A8s.

Also keep in mind we only need to be good 23% of the time to call so it doesn't matter if we are beat most of the time here.

You've told us which hands you think are not in opponents range.....but he must be raising with something.....so which hands do you think he has in his range exactly?


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x3mwisp
Joined: 31.03.2009

I aggree strongly with weazel on this one. Actually it didn't really cross my mind to be x/c x/c such spots on lower limits but now I see it makes most sense.
Also aggree about the river. At least the combos of K9,98,A8s,A9s, would be enough to be calling here.

Thx.


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