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Full house on the river, facing a bet/raise All in

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Mandator
Joined: 02.02.2008
Oldschool Grinder

He is a Nitty 13/8/1 with only a 1.2 aggresive factor, WWSF of 36 and W$SD of 59. I Raise OTR for value but I have to face a huge raise after my bet. Can you hero fold here??

Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $2.11 (105.5 bb)
BB: $0.64 (32 bb)
UTG+2: $3.35 (167.5 bb)
MP1: $1.46 (73 bb)
MP2: $2.56 (128 bb)
MP3: $2.38 (119 bb)
Hero (CO): $2 (100 bb)
BTN: $0.80 (40 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5♠: 5♦:
2 folds, MP2 raises to $0.06, MP3 folds, Hero calls $0.06, 2 folds, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.19) A♥: J♦: 3♥: (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.19) A♦: (3 players)
BB folds, MP2 checks, Hero checks

River: ($0.19) 5♣: (2 players)
MP2 bets $0.12, Hero raises to $0.45, MP2 raises to $2.50 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.49 and is all-in

Results:

Spoiler

$4.07 pot ($0.14 rake)
Final Board: A♥: J♦: 3♥: A♦: 5♣:
MP2 showed A♠: J♠: and won $3.93 ($1.93 net)
Hero showed 5♠: 5♦: and lost (-$2 net)


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5 replies
Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016
PokerStrategist

I don´t think we can fold there (definitely I wouldn´t be capable of that ). But when I think about it more and more deeply I don´t really see us we beat him, though I don´t think I would fold.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013
PokerStrategist

That is sick AJ ( 6 combos ) is the only realistic hand in his range that beats us. His play is sooo weird and he will often miss so much value here :f_rolleyes: The guy is tight and passive and now he starts raising + his W$SD is ok so it makes this scary. I think I still would call here


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010
PokerStrategist

It is very strange play but if you raise, you cannot fold.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009
PokerStrategist

The fun thing is that 55 is the only possible hand you can have that makes this decision hard. No other full house (or trip A) is in your range:D


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009
PokerStrategist

Assuming the above post (i.e. 55 is our only bluff catcher), this is a clear GTO fold. Not always, but mostly (haven't done the exact numbers). Add in that he is a nit, and the fact that he 3-bets river, you can fold 100% of the time.


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