We have top pair and FD. I don't think villain has many better hands in his range than AhQh and AK. The rest he is probably folding, maybe.
Maybe we can actually check this flop. Then we call one street if he bets because he might be bluffing. If he checks turn too we stab. That doesn't sound bad.
But if we bet here he is folding almost 70% of his range. Autoprofit?
Almost agree about the range. The problem is that he has few worse hands than those mentioned as well. There are at most 8 AK out there. There are at most 9 = 6 + 3 QQ + JJ. There is the stray KK/TT.
If we bet here and he is folding almost 70% of his range it is the best auto-profit situation I've seen. I'd bet without thinking. As you might guess, I think 25% folds, especially to a small bet is much more reasonable than 70%.
You think villain folds only 25%? What hands he is calling then?
Originally posted by la55i
You think villain folds only 25%? What hands he is calling then?
AK and certainly all 
(like Q♥:Q♣: ) and better if we bet small will at least call. 25% is very little. Just emphasizing that 70% is absurd.
Villain's range is not only PP.
He does not have much AK as he will play for stacks. He has medium pairs and some suited hands - AQ, AJ, KQ, QJ- 98
If he folds non-heart hands plus the part of pp the FE is way above 25%.
Originally posted by YohanN7
Originally posted by la55i
You think villain folds only 25%? What hands he is calling then?AK and certainly all
Those hands are going in preflop.
Originally posted by nitrol
Originally posted by YohanN7
Originally posted by la55i
You think villain folds only 25%? What hands he is calling then?AK and certainly all
Those hands are going in preflop.
Yes. I have calculated with, but not mentioned, that QQ should be discounted. This is also why that possible AK-holding is scary. On the other hand, AK should not like to call a 4-bet.
I am still lost!
Both QQ and KK go in the middle preflop from these positions.
I hope this will help you to find yourself. 
No, I am still lost. Are you saying his range is exactly AK? No you don't, but they are there, right? But then why put money in the pot? Tell me, I am going bonkers:why:
This is indeed a tough spot. The problem is we can only guess what hands villain has here and how he will play those. I think checking can work here too. Very difficult to decide which one is better.
Originally posted by YohanN7
No, I am still lost. Are you saying his range is exactly AK? No you don't, but they are there, right? But then why put money in the pot? Tell me, I am going bonkers:why:
I say AK and QQ are pushing preflop and you have to discount then.
He doesn't have any hand in his range? That makes some sense since no hand should call a 4-bet OOP. But he did.
I thought you gave examples of hands he can't have. QQ/JJ/AK, ... Please tell me his total range as you perceive it (before any of us dies:) ).
Originally posted by nitrol
Villain's range is not only PP.
He does not have much AK as he will play for stacks. He has medium pairs and some suited hands - AQ, AJ, KQ, QJ- 98
If he folds non-heart hands plus the part of pp the FE is way above 25%.
Originally posted by nitrol
Originally posted by YohanN7
No, I am still lost. Are you saying his range is exactly AK? No you don't, but they are there, right? But then why put money in the pot? Tell me, I am going bonkers:why:I say AK and QQ are pushing preflop and you have to discount then.
AK might not push.
Originally posted by nitrol
Originally posted by nitrol
Villain's range is not only PP.
He does not have much AK as he will play for stacks. He has medium pairs and some suited hands - AQ, AJ, KQ, QJ- 98
If he folds non-heart hands plus the part of pp the FE is way above 25%.
No, conceptual error. He folds more than 25%. True. What does he fold? This is not FE. FE comes about when he folds better hands. Checking is definitely better against the range you suggest. And I think your range is wrong. He is certainly slowplaying AA more than he is calling a 4-bet with 98s.
It is now official. I have gone bonkers because of this hand. Gone to the dogs. Bats in the bell tower. Here is an inside look into my brain (and this is on a good day):
There are men in white coats knocking on my door. I shall have to open and see what they want.
