KK overpair river decision

Originally posted by Dragar
What should we do on the river, call or fold?
Or should we bet fold? Might be better as I could bet 50% of pot.

Bet/fold would be my play here.
As played though, I think it's a fold.

Cheers,
VS

This is close and probably the best combo to call. He now has some KQss, KJssd. I think he is wider than the nuts here with his "value" range but he does have the nuts here quite often. A5hh/A4hh, Axhh, 76hh/76s/Back Doored QJhh or QJss. Some guys will have 2 pair here. Not sure what to make of the size. Probably the KsKx combos are better than this particular one due to the blocker.

While I agree that we can probably bet the flop here since they won't defend anywhere near correctly, this is an extremely high check (like range check) on a flop such as this. We have 300+ combos in our raise range, he has 120-130 and this flop just connects too well with that range. If I was going to bet this board, I would do it with sets+ and the combo draws that can pull ahead when he has flopped nutted and trapped flop and I would bet bigger to extract from some weaker overpairs and charge FD's.

The other reason not to be this combos is that we are going to fill quite a few hands when he do turn nutted withi the Ks. If I had to choose a KK combo to bet, it will have the Ks and, to a lesser extent, Kh.