MP vs UTG

I would probably call once OTF but that turn is troubling me. If he has 99,AA,KK,AK you still probably don't get good enough pot odds or implied odds.

Board: Kh4h9s8h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 39.16% 20.80% 18.36% { AhKd }
MP3 60.84% 42.48% 18.36% { KK+, 99, AKs, AKo }

If you would call you would need to win this 33% so we are quite far still. Your raise probably doesn't have any fold equity. He would need to have about 4-7 combos of bluffs and considering tight UTG range I struggle to find those.

I tend to 3bet too but most people flat here. Could be mixed etc. Just be sure villain isn't a nit before you 3bet at least.

As played pffff sick spot I suppose calling OTT is -EV indeed but I know myself I'd never be able to fold lol.
I. Should. Work. On. Folding. More. Mental game and all.

Without any specific reads I would think that turn bet is never a bluff. His bet sizing is really big so just fold OTT. The best you can hope for is a split with AK, and most villains will just check the turn on this board OOP wheh holding TPTK.

A turn shove of the backdoor flush draw is only profitable if we have fold equity (or he calls with less) - and we don't have any here.

Are you sure about his preflop range without stats? I would probably defend 99, JTs, QJs, KQs, KJs vs some loose 3-bettors in MP. I have also seen people show up in these spots with suited connectors and small pocket pairs.

Originally posted by shooshte

Are you sure about his preflop range without stats? I would probably defend 99, JTs, QJs, KQs, KJs vs some loose 3-bettors in MP. I have also seen people show up in these spots with suited connectors and small pocket pairs.

I'm quite sure it is tight. Defending with more pocket pairs than 88+ can be ok. JTs and a few lower suited connectors can be okay defends too from UTG. But I would not call KJs. QJs and KQs are problematic too if we are out of position postflop because we just end up being dominated.

You said you would defend more loose vs loose 3bettors in MP. Do you now talk about guys who have normal overall 3bet stats that you think are loose, or do you talk about villains who really have a loose MPvsUTG 3bet range. I must remind you that if we want to get an accurate stat on that specific spot we need thousands of hands on villain. Something like 500 hands barely gives us somewhat accurate overall 3bet% and that doesn't tell us yet how villain 3bets against UTG open.

Do you really expect most people at NL10 to be folding stuff such as 77 and KQs pre ? I don't. The field should be calling too much here. Even I probably am lol.

No I don't necessarily expect them to fold those. Btw I don't know how this is relevant because I just said that given the tight preflop ranges I don't find that many bluffs. Which of those combos would play like this as a bluff? 77? KQs?

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by shooshte

Are you sure about his preflop range without stats? I would probably defend 99, JTs, QJs, KQs, KJs vs some loose 3-bettors in MP. I have also seen people show up in these spots with suited connectors and small pocket pairs.

I'm quite sure it is tight. Defending with more pocket pairs than 88+ can be ok. JTs and a few lower suited connectors can be okay defends too from UTG. But I would not call KJs. QJs and KQs are problematic too if we are out of position postflop because we just end up being dominated.

You said you would defend more loose vs loose 3bettors in MP. Do you now talk about guys who have normal overall 3bet stats that you think are loose, or do you talk about villains who really have a loose MPvsUTG 3bet range. I must remind you that if we want to get an accurate stat on that specific spot we need thousands of hands on villain. Something like 500 hands barely gives us somewhat accurate overall 3bet% and that doesn't tell us yet how villain 3bets against UTG open.

I make notes when people show up with weird hands like small pocket pairs, suited aces, suited broadway cards like QTs, KTs, Ats, suited connectors, suited one-gappers in these spots on the river. That is what i refer to as loose 3-bettors. Playing KJs, KQs and JQs can be profitable vs those, since they usually make mistakes post-flop.

Vs a player I just think that is a more aggressive (because I have 500 hands and the 3-bet stat is high) I would only defend TT-QQ, AK, JTs, 9Ts. The rest of the hands just get dominated, as you said

Vs a player I just think that is a more aggressive (because I have 500 hands and the 3-bet stat is high)

In 500 hands you barely get somewhat accurate overall 3bet% and even if the guy's overall 3bet is high he could be very tight on MP and 3bet a lot on the blinds instead.

Originally posted by la55i

Vs a player I just think that is a more aggressive (because I have 500 hands and the 3-bet stat is high)

In 500 hands you barely get somewhat accurate overall 3bet% and even if the guy's overall 3bet is high he could be very tight on MP and 3bet a lot on the blinds instead.

True, be careful with that !
Anyway I wouldn't call "weird hands" most of the hands you quoted as loose 3bets, a lot of hands can be put (if not all at the same time) in a decent 3betting range it's a complex topic. And I would advice against adapting too much your 3bet calling range OOP. Even against loose 3betters it's gonna be a pain to play postflop.

His line just doesn't make sense with anything and should have some random crap in it
I just close eyes call the best hands this should be one of them, better call than AA most likely
not a big deal anyways spot won't happen very often

Why better than AA ? Because we block KK ? Or you just meant than AA without heart ?

Yeah
I mean it's rough because we're trying to put someone on a range where no hands should be played this way
and you might think AA 4bets pre and KK is plausible

But that's a pretty futile exercise so best thing to do is to just give up in a spot like this as you'll always be guessing and just call the best hands
Like our hand definitely is blocking flushes KK and having outs always

I would always pay it off here - it just doesn't make sense what he does and it should be silly bluff/speww often enough