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[MP]AdJs vs CO

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Zexion
Joined: 14.10.2011

Pacific Poker - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

Hero (MP): $10.00 (100 bb)
MP+1: $1.93 (19.3 bb)
CO: $10.45 (104.5 bb)
BTN: $9.09 (90.9 bb)
SB: $8.20 (82 bb)
BB: $33.59 (335.9 bb)
UTG: $12.60 (126 bb)
UTG+1: $10.06 (100.6 bb)

SB posts $0.05, BB posts $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has J♠: A♦:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, CO calls $0.30, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.75, 2 players) 7♠: J♣: T♠:
Hero bets $0.70, CO calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.15, 2 players) J♥:
Hero bets $1.92, CO raises to $9.45 and is all-in, Hero folds

Results: $5.99 pot ($0.30 rake)
Final Board: 7♠: J♣: T♠: J♥:

CO wins $5.69

I don't have a lot of information about CO other than I can assume he's a recreational player with a VPIP of 86, PFR of 0, and 14 hands played. Based on how he played, I assumed he often has 77, TT, and 89 in his range, so I decided to fold. Do you think the opponent could have a flush draw often enough here for the call to be profitable?


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9 replies
EmiyaKiritsugu
Joined: 13.08.2013

Based on how he played, I assumed he often has 77, TT, and 89 in his range, so I decided to fold

You have very detailed knowledge about his gameplay after 14 hands with max 2 showdowns. EZ call, player like this think that QJ is nuts.


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You have very detailed knowledge about his gameplay after 14 hands with max 2 showdowns.

Sometimes even 1 showdown is enough. Long time ago you can spot a sucker in the first half hour of the game. Now you can spot it in the first 1 minute of the game!

I think fold here is way too tight. I am gonna call this one


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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

I guess the only range that raises for protection that has you beat are 77 and 89s. This is actually a pretty tough spot and in a FR game, without information, I would fold this.

With your read of V's high vpip, I'm leaning towards call here.


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NoNameHypo
Joined: 28.04.2023

Full house here possible, but very unlikely...98s...98o will be a big problem. 14 hands, 86 VPIP you said...I think it is a call. See in Equilab, if you want, but I think you should give him some 98o combos, lets say 50%, some 77 lets say, some Jx (trips, no full house), its a call imo...With this info. And vs this field...If he have 98o, he will have a lot of Jx, you missed that, mate..Call next time...

FD almost never mate, you should think mainly about the straight and the trips...Think also about the off suit combos in this situations. It's very important...Because they are 12, not 4...3 times more...


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mkBISCUIT
Joined: 19.01.2018

call off.. with A kicker, if you had maybe j8 or lower i think about calling but doubtful with no info


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Zexion
Joined: 14.10.2011

According to the Equilab software, there are 25 possible combinations of hands that can beat my hand. However, it is worth noting that I have no information to suggest that this particular player is capable of playing aggressively on the turn with a flush draw.


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NoNameHypo
Joined: 28.04.2023

It's very unlikely to see here FD or full house, mate...You are trying to justify your fold...Well, if you made a mistake, this will be lets say $1 loss. In a long run. Not a big deal...I hope you feel better now...


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NoNameHypo
Joined: 28.04.2023

The guy have 16 combos straight...3 combos 77 (maybe). But OK , 19 combos better hand, but you still have some outs. If he have all the combos 98o, he will have a lot of Jx (trips)...I didn't saw what in Equilab, but I will now ...Ok, our guy with all the combos 98 and 77 and also I give him J9, KJ, QJ, J8s, AJ (only that)...Ok, $1.50-$1.60 loss...A little worse :f_biggrin:..But we are not sure, also more often we will lose (tilt , variance and etc). Ok, it's a mistake, but not a big deal...You know now. It's a small price for this knowledge...A dollar...


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EmiyaKiritsugu
Joined: 13.08.2013

First of all - we need about this player for sure only that he played 14 hands and played only 12. At this point we can safely assume he is huge whale because of probability. Lets assume that we have fullring reg with not tightest range - 20% vpip. Chance that he played 12 from 14 hands is like 1 to 4 034 039. Even for 50% vpip player its less than 1% chance.
We dont have enough data to prove anything else. Even if we saw he played passively draw it doesnt matter - its one hand and solvers for example will often mix passive and aggressive lines with draws. I think its safe to say he may overplay a lot of Jx there and maybe find sometime fancy bluffs. Sure I expect to win less than 50% of times there but I dont see how I can ever fold this. Not against this guy.


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