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[Closed] NL10 SH - TT vs 3bet from short stack

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Tosh5457
Joined: 18.01.2008

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($12.72)
BB ($40.46)
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($10.50)
Hero ($10.41)
BTN ($2.85)

Dealt to Hero T♥ T♣

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.40, BTN raises to $1.20, fold, fold, Hero 4bets ?(

He had tight stats, but I don't remember his stats at the time.

I have to put $2.45 for a $1.75 pot. If I assume he calls wth his whole 3bet range, that means I have to have way more than 50% equity?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.892% 46.62% 00.27% 546074664 3133902.00 { JJ+, 99-77, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 53.108% 52.84% 00.27% 618873468 3133902.00 { TT }

So it's EV- to 4bet?


6 replies
veriz
Joined: 20.07.2008

Hello Tosh5457,

But well, you were saying that he had tight stats. Although you are still putting him a range of 9-10%? I really doubt that. :P Would be great to hear what kind of stats. If he had something near SSS stats then I'd rather fold the hand, doubt we are getting 42% equity against that kind of range which is needed.

Best regards.


Tosh5457 Topic starter
Tosh5457
Joined: 18.01.2008

Originally posted by veriz
Hello Tosh5457,

But well, you were saying that he had tight stats. Although you are still putting him a range of 9-10%? I really doubt that. :P Would be great to hear what kind of stats. If he had something near SSS stats then I'd rather fold the hand, doubt we are getting 42% equity against that kind of range which is needed.

Best regards.

The problem is that HE doesn't show the stats I had at the time of the hand... I had few hands at the time. In fact writing the stats here is useless most of the time I think, because when the hand occurred we didn't have the stats we post here.

Hmm but how do we only need 42% equity? How do you do that calculation?


veriz
Joined: 20.07.2008

Pot is (with his all-in) = $3,40 ($0,40 + $0,15 (blinds) + $2,85 (opp. stack))
For us to Call = $2,45

Equity = $2,45/($3,4+$2,45) = ~42% equity which includes rake.


Tosh5457 Topic starter
Tosh5457
Joined: 18.01.2008

Originally posted by veriz
Pot is (with his all-in) = $3,40 ($0,40 + $0,15 (blinds) + $2,85 (opp. stack))
For us to Call = $2,45

Equity = $2,45/($3,4+$2,45) = ~42% equity which includes rake.

Ah ok thanks :)


Tosh5457 Topic starter
Tosh5457
Joined: 18.01.2008

Originally posted by veriz
Pot is (with his all-in) = $3,40 ($0,40 + $0,15 (blinds) + $2,85 (opp. stack))
For us to Call = $2,45

Equity = $2,45/($3,4+$2,45) = ~42% equity which includes rake.

Hmm but you're assuming we're the ones who're gonna call, but we're gonna 4bet. It's like betting pot has to result 50% of the times to be EV+, but a call against a pot bet only has to win the hand 33% of the time to be EV+.


veriz
Joined: 20.07.2008

No, I assume that the guy is going broke anyways with his stack. :P


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