[Closed] NL100 AKo rainbow flop

I go broke here against unknown fish. If he has something you still have outs.

I'm a bit surprised at this advice. I thought the advice was: when in doubt, play according to the basics.

I have to call $10 for a pot of 24.5$, so I need 28.99% equity. Against any poket pair or any hand that has paired this board my equity sucks way less than 28.9%.

So basically I can only call if I believe my opponent to be bluffing and I don't see how I can make that conclusion after 13 hands.

Well I'm not really sure that's the right thing to do, I just couldn't fold against a player like that, maybe that's a leak. On such a dry board my line would probably even be not to continuation bet, try to get to a cheap showdown, or raise if an A or K falls, but that could be a leak as well

Let's see what the better guys have to say.

You need to invest $10 into a pot of $31.5*0.95 meaning you need 25%

on such a dry flop + fishy opponent, I think shoving is the best move here.

Though I raise 5bb preflop or 4.5bb (pot+1bb) since I see a poster as a limper

Yikes! Are my calcs that far off? Can you explain how the pot is $31.5?
I make it ($9.50 + 6$ + $10 as this is villain's effective stack) = $25.5

And if so I make it 29% equity that I need. Can you confirm?

If it is 29%, do you still shove? And if so, why?

Thanks as always

Effective Stack preflop is 20$, blinds are 1,50$, so entire pot should be 41,50$*0.95.

hero has 10$ left (and villain has him covered) after the cbet, so he needs 10/39,42 = 25,4% equity.

@Gerv: Your way of calculating it doesn't rake hero's reststack.

btw: I like your raisesize preflop, but i wouldn't cbet more than 5$ on this dry flop. so in this spot i have an easier decision to b/f.
as played i still would fold since i see less reason to assume that an unknown villain should (semi)bluff here with this dry flop. without bluffs i should only have ~20% or less.

go with gonzo for sure, bet less for cont bet

at nl50 i have noticed that few people see how much you actually bet and they only see the action of betting.

getting minraised is superstrength i think, i give villain at least tptk.

fold it wait for a better spot.

i dont understand the shoving mentality with overcards on a 3-bet that was a minraise.

OMG, I will never be able to play poker profitbly if I can't work out the pot odds. What's wrong with me???

When I do it, I get:

Pot before the bet from opponent: $15.5
Bet from your opponent: $10 (effectively, since this is all I have left)
Possible profit for you: $25.5
Bet, which I have to call: $10

So, I have to invest 10$ to win $25.5 (NB this calc ignores rake – I want to ensure I have the basics first)

Pot Odds = possible winnings : cost of staying in the hand

So, : $25.5:$10, i.e. 2.55:1
As a decimal, this is 1/3.55 = 0.282 So, if my chances of winning are greater than 0.282, I should call.

Help me! Where am I going wrong with this?

Originally posted by Tim64
Pot before the bet from opponent: $15.5
Bet from your opponent: $6 for calling your bet + raising you $10 (effectively, since this is all I have left)

Yowzers that's embarassing ♦

I think I need to go back to basics...

@Gonzo: Thx for that - I also used to leave out the rake on the remaining Hero stack.

@Tim64: don't feel bad man, you understand the concept. You just made a slight oversight that's all

Maybe... But after another -100$ session just now I feel not so much like mutton dressed as lamb, but bronze dressed as platinum.

Will post the awfulness in a mo...

I hate these spots so much...
I mean, any time I have a set of jacks here (and go broke obviously) the villain shows with something ridiculous like T9 for a gutshot.
And anytime I call with AK high they have sort of a pair, either a pocket or J or 7.
Anyway against 1 pair hands you have about 25 % (as long as your 6 outs are clean) and you are getting pot odds where you only need 25, so I guess it can't really be bad to call and at least maybe get a read.