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NL5 Zoom - Flop Set

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bennisboy
Joined: 11.04.2011

Fast poker so villain unknown

IPoker, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: $5 (100 bb)
Hero (UTG): $5.47 (109.4 bb)
MP: $2.39 (47.8 bb)
CO: $4.98 (99.6 bb)
BTN: $4.77 (95.4 bb)
SB: $4.13 (82.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 4 4
Hero raises to $0.15, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.15, SB calls $0.13, BB folds

Flop: ($0.50) 4 6 T (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, SB folds

Turn: ($1.10) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, BTN raises to $1.60, Hero raises to $5.02 and is all-in, BTN calls $2.72 and is all-in

River: ($9.74) Q (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results:

Spoiler

$9.74 pot ($0.64 rake)
Final Board: 4 6 T 7 Q
Hero mucked 4 4 and won $0.00 (-$4.77 net)
BTN showed 5 8 and won $9.10 ($4.33 net)

So the flop comes and I make my set. I bet out fairly standard 2/3 pot size and get one caller. Figure that they could have Overcards, A/K rag which has hit a pair, maybe even an over pair or suited connecters (56 or 67).

On the turn I lead out and get raised. I figure it is most likely that villain has 2pair and would be a good sport to get it in as only realistic hands I am losing to are 66,TT,77 & 89

Villain calls and shows up with 58s.

Do you think this is played okay, or should we really be able to get away from this?

Seems to me on a dry board it was okay to go broke here?


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6 replies

Hi bennisboy

preflop: looking fine

Postflop: with btm set this is a pretty nasty spot because there are very few worse hands that would ever play like this.

You've listed the better hands but how about the worse ones?


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bennisboy Topic starter
bennisboy
Joined: 11.04.2011

Originally posted by BogdanPS
Hi bennisboy

preflop: looking fine

Postflop: with btm set this is a pretty nasty spot because there are very few worse hands that would ever play like this.

You've listed the better hands but how about the worse ones?

Yeah I guess 67 is the only hand I beat that would make that play. So really fold is correct, but also tough to fold?


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KillerFishes
Joined: 11.07.2010

Hey,

I think you can just call turn for fullhouse odds + bluff opportunities otr.
I would be ready to bluff some cards as 5,8 with donk bet + he surely bets all straights otr even when
board pairs.


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bennisboy Topic starter
bennisboy
Joined: 11.04.2011

Originally posted by KillerFishes
Hey,

I think you can just call turn for fullhouse odds + bluff opportunities otr.
I would be ready to bluff some cards as 5,8 with donk bet + he surely bets all straights otr even when
board pairs.

Yeah I think you are right there, definitely a better play than shoving, haven't checked the maths on whether we would have the pot odds or not yet, but definitely better than my shove


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bennisboy Topic starter
bennisboy
Joined: 11.04.2011

After doing the maths it looks like we can call here for +EV in the long run?

Pot odds to call the raise on the turn are just over 5.5:1

Odds to improve are 10 cards out of 46 so 4.6:1

However I guess this assumption rests on the fact that if we improve we would have the best hand. Do you think this is ever an assumption we can make in this position vs unknown villain in BU?


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IF we add all straight combos then yes we can still call.

It's definitely not a shove for sure so it's between a call and a fold.

And no, we can't assume that we will always improve to the best hand as he still has his own sets that crush us.


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