NL50 anon QTo

You have 2 pairs and you are OOP so shoving can't be that bad. But I'm really not thrilled with this. So many stronger hands against us like sets and straights. I may bet/fold T9 for sure on the Turn. But i think we could beat Q9s and T9s, and perhaps he makes some semi bluff raise.

Do we have the option of bet/calling Turn? Perhaps, but being OOP on such a wet board really sucks. Of course this is ez bet/fold with AA.

With that said, if you chose to bet/fold top two vs this nit, I think it's also a decent play. They just don't bluff raise here with anything worse than 2pairs.

What do you say about pf defend w QTo oop vs seemingly tight opponent and our donk on flop?

Its ok esp when he opens 2.5bb

Why is dnk good for, value/protection?

I am rly looking for reasons to go broke on T but they are just so meeeh.

How many times do we see seemingly tigh opponent play AA/KK, TPTK like this?

You say he might have two pair worse than ours, but those combos are capped to only a few! While on the other hand playing sets like this from his side is very much more likely. The same goes for gs & oesd that complete on T.

Only thing I am not sure are combo draws that pick up pair on T ... but those are also very few and if he is not a total fish he must realize his EQ and the fact that he is probably turnin his hand into a bluff.

Or am I way too tight in these spots? I mean he is showing 18/14 ... not 30/25 after 30 hands.

Oh i was commenting on prefop play. Dont like the donk without dynamics. U would need him to float or bluffraise a ton to make this a good play. Which means u need to be donking gutshots and backdoor stuff a good amount too, which would make him play back at u more. Then donking some top pairs for balance woild make sense

This hand is bothering me so I want to discuss a bit further ♠_evil:
Sry if I am a bit of drag

This is the range w all of his possible value combos and strong semi-bluff combos(didn't include QQ and weak fd's):

Board: 3♣9♣T♦ Q♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    59.22%  59.22%   0.00% { KK+, TT-99, 33, KJs, Q9s, J8s, T9s, AcQc, AcJc, QcJc, AcTc, JcTc, KJo, Q9o, J8o, T9o }
MP3    40.78%  40.78%   0.00% { QdTh }

We are doing good vs this range, but we still need 43% EQ to shove profitably, assuming he never folds T (regarding rake we need even more). So theoretically we are making a mistake.

Alternative is to call, hence we need only 33%, but we will need to shut down on many river cards, esp not knowing villains tendencies.

Now here is a range w/o KK+:

Board: 3♣9♣T♦ Q♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    67.05%  67.05%   0.00% { TT-99, 33, KJs, Q9s, J8s, T9s, AcQc, AcJc, QcJc, AcTc, JcTc, KJo, Q9o, J8o, T9o }
MP3    32.95%  32.95%   0.00% { QdTh }

We are prettey much never doing good vs this and never get the odds if we shove or call.

Overall if we play around with combos, bcs he might or might not slowplay on flop we mostly get the same numbers.

I do NOT include FE me might have with shoving turn, but we can rarely expect a tight guy bluffing turn like villain did. It is mostly for value in vacuum and w/o reads we shouldn't assume different.

Would really like your thoughts on this one. I think this might look as easy spot. But in long run it is barely BE or even loosing us money if we don't pay attention.

EDIT; If we add AQ to the first range, we get 45% and a BE shove. But we are aware that is very very optimistic range that we are giving him.

Well I already mentioned it, this is not really a pleasant spot. Perhaps his actual range is somewhere between the 2 ranges you described. Most important thing about having top two here is that
1) We beat a few weaker 2 pairs
2) We block set combos

It's unlikely he overplays KK+ imo since he's a nit. Nits may not open more than 35% of BUs, so we can expect not to see hands like J8o a lot of the time. It may be closer than you think.

Also, notice that this hand played out differently from a normal hand. People may spazz out against Flop + Turn donk bets, cos they are just not used to playing against it. If hero was the PFR and cbets Flop bets Turn, then that would be a more normal spot and the chances of spazz here is much slimmer.