QJo

Hi legand73

Preflop: looks fine

Postflop: Raising flop could be an option instead of calling (but as seen below folding is usually best) although without backdoors turns will be ugly and as played I don't mind checking turn as it's an over and he can bet it as a bluff.

As played why bet the river? Ask yourself what value do you actually have?

Ok so I've kinda been working on my poker theory a bit and let me give a shot at analyzing this hand. Ask me if you don't get anything.

Before I begin, QJo isn't in my calling range vs CO open however for this analysis I added it.

CO's opening range I took aka (IP),

AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K6s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s (25% open)

BB's cold calling vs CO open range aka(OOP)

TT-22,AQo-AJo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AJs-ATs,KJs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s (12.1%)

How hard both ranges hit:

Equity is very similar BB vs CO is almost 50/50 however,

OOP range has 2 pair+ 6.34% of the time, Top pair+ 16.9%

IP range has 2 pair+ 3.06% of the time, Top Pair+ 20.4%

OOP range seems a bit more polarized and can have a decent x/r range.

Flop: 9d 4h 3d

IP:
Combos: 294

Value Bet: 99(3), 44(3), 33(3), AA(6), KK(6), QQ(6), JJ(6), TT(6), A9s(3), K9s(3), Q9s(3), J9s(3), T9s(3), 98s(3), 97s(3)=60

Draws: Nut FD(10), FD(20), 65s(3)=33

Bluff Bet: 88(6), 77(6), 66(6), 55(6), A4s(2), 64s(2), 54s(2), A3s(2), A5s(3), A2s(3), 76s(3), 75s(3), AK(15), AQ(15), AJ(15), KQ(15), AT(15)=113

Betting Freq: 70%

OOP:
Combos: 142

Bet:0 I can't find any hands to lead here. All strong hands are strong enough to x/r and other than that everything else is too weak to lead.

x/c: 99(3), TT(6), J9s(3), T9s(3), 98s(3), FD(7), 88(6), 77(6), 66(6), 55(6), AQo(6), AJ(12) =67

x/r value: 44(3), 33(3)=6

x/r bluff: AJ(5), ATs(1), AQo(6)=12 (Backdoor FDs of AJ ant AT and some AQo, 2 AQo combos were called)

I threw the nut set in the x/c range cause otherwise x/r becomes pretty big on this board. Using a 2:1 bluff to value ratio on the flop if you x/r 99 as well you'll end up x/r a total of 19% which I think is too high and you won't have enough decent hands to x/c and your x/r range will just be awful.

Total check defending range=59.86%

EV of CO's flopping air= 1[$1.1(0.4014)-$0.50(0.5986)]
=$0.14 or 0.56bb

This above equation just shows if the IP player can ever exploit us by betting any two cards on the flop and he really can't.

Equation is

Overall check %[(Amount won x OOP x/f %) - (Amount lost x OOP defending checks range)]

I hope I haven't missed out on anything but if i made a mistake in totaling or something it'll be really very small.

With our x/c range vs the opponents overall betting range again our equity is almost 50/50 so nobody is really exploiting anybody.

I like our OOP overall x/c range also cause a lot of turns hit some part of our range or the other so even that way its balanced. The range can improve to flushes, top pairs, 2 pairs and some straight draws.

Exploitative play:

Now I'll try to see if I can do anything different from what I feel is optimal play against this opponent.

30/31 and AF of 3.3 so a sort of LAG. What will he do different? Maybe bet a lot more on flop and also have a wider preflop opening range. Maybe bet even higher than 70% that I defined as what is a good range for him to cbet the flop with.

In any case I don't care cause he won't be making any money and is only getting himself exploited and I think I have no incentive to change my strategy or deviate from this one.

For him to bet ATC is -EV here.

Say he opens very wide from CO and plans to cbet a very high % on the flop, whats his overall profit.

We already determined that he is winning a total of 0.56bb everytime we check and defend this much however overall he loses cause he also invested 2 bb preflop to get here.

So his net loss is -2+0.56=-1.44bb.

If he plans on double barrelling he is digging himself a deeper grave IMO cause many hands improve in our range on many turns and his overall EV for the hand will be more -ve

Bottom Line:

I think its best to fold QJo on the flop there are enough hands that you can defend with which are way better and sure as hell don't bluff raise with it cause there are even better hands to bluff raise with.

Like I mentioned in the begining I don't even flat QJo in this spot preflop.

A question you might have:

Is x/c with hands like 77,66 better than QJo?

I think so cause you already have other better Jx and Qx hands in your x/c range, hands like 77, 66 can improve your overall range on many turns too which can be cards between 4-9.

If you think I am wrong with anything please do challenge me. It'll only make me think harder and make this whole analysis better.

Hey maheepsangari

Thanks for the analysis. I see you gave villain a range of 25% but I do expect villain to be raising a lot more than that from the CO if he's playing 31/30 (although sample is still small). I play 20/17 or so am opening wider than this (31%). I'm not sure how much of an impact this open range would change your overall analysis but i'm not sure you can just discount this information and say that it doesn't matter because there are a lot more hands that do continue imo which we should be accounting for rather than analysing a play discounting what could be up to 1.5x the amount of hands that were in the original analysis.

Also when you split your ranges up into say your bluff bets, like 88 for example how come we're not considering this a value bet? if we expect AJ type hands to call?

You did a lot of stuff in your analysis that i'm trying to make myself do but just haven't made the time

Ok lets use this 33% opening range for the CO and see what happens.

AA-22,AKo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s (32.8%)

Flop: 9d 4h 3d

Total combos: 386

Now he flops 2 pair+ 2.85% of the times and Top pair + 30.1% of the times. So his nutted type hands have reduced but his medium strength hands have increased. So his range isn't as polarized now.

Value Bets: 99(3), 44(3), 33(3), 43s(2), AA-TT(30), A9, K9, Q9, J9, T9, 98, 97s (75)=116
Draws: FD(27)65s(4)=31
Bluffs: 88-55(24), A4s(2), 64s(2), 54s(2), A5s(3), A2s(3), 76s(3), 75s(3), AK(15), AQ(15), AJ(15, KQ(15), AT(15)=117

Betting freq=68.39%

This range isn't even balanced properly but when betting flop the bluff:value ratio needs to be like close to 2:1. If I try to make that much I'll have a lot of weak bluffs in CO's range. I've already thrown in middle pairs, gutshots and overcards in the bluffing range. Also his value betting rang isn't that strong overall.

Compare this range to earlier range I made from a 25% preflop open. This betting range is way weaker, less polarized cause has a lot more medium strength hands.

We have a more polarized range meaning its more +EV for us to play cause even if 2 ranges have the same equity, the range that is more polarized has more EV.

And we are defending enough of our checks to not let him get away with bluffing any two cards.

We could maybe throw in top set into x/r range rather than x/c range and add some more stuff to x/c range to adjust.

End of the day here's the comparison between both out scenarios:

1. We still defend the same % of our checks
2. Our x/c range has hands that can beat his wider betting range
3. There are more absolute number of bluffs in his range compared to earlier. We already established that we make money when he bets the flop after flopping air cause we defend a good % of the time. Hence he reaches a -EV spot more absolute number of times.

If you think he won't have that many bluffs in his range and will only bet his pairs+ and draws then he'll have a pretty low flop cbet% like between 40-50% and that you can start exploiting yourself in other ways.

Regarding hands in bluffing and value betting range.

I think there is a very thin line between bluffs and value hands when the range isn't very polarized as it is in this case. Many of his TP hands aren't even good value hands as they can't go for 3 streets of value and some of his bluffs have more equity than normal hands.

I try to define value hands as hands that have like 80% equity and bluffs that have like 20% equity. When ranges are less polarized equities of value hands and bluffs would be close like even 70-30 type.

Hence our x/c range is normally designed to beat his bluffs but lose to his value hands. So again coming back to polarized range aspect, when his range is more condensed ( which it will be the larger preflop opening range he has) some of our x/c will even be good enough to beat some of his value bets. Like the FDs we have are better than the FDs he has and our TT beats his 9x pairs. Not to forget, so many times when he bets with his 9x( the more he opens preflop the more 9x he has) we x/r with our sets etc.

With a hand like 88 in CO's betting range, he should be happy to get a hand like AJ fold. A hand like AJ will normally have 25% equity against a low PP and the aim of betting with 88 to make that equity fold and not give him an opportunity to realise his equity means we bluffed him as we made him fold his equity.

So I see a hand betting like 88 against AJ as a bluff in this spot cause 88 anyway can't go for 3 streets of value. Many turns outdraw 88 and 88 won't know when its ahead and will rarely be able to realise its equity.

Also when betting hands like 88 or weak pairs into TP type hands, you make them as bluffs as they will have some equity to win against TP type hands. Weak pairs can improve to two pairs and low PP can improve to sets.

Hence from CO's perspective, BB will x/c with a condensed range meaning that they will be medium strength hands like TP type hands. against a majority of that range a hand like 88 acts as a bluff, makes some overcards fold or sometimes even TPs might fold if BB didn't construct the ranges properly and when called, hands like 88, weak pairs or even gutshots for that matter can improve on some turns jumping from like 20% equity hands to all of a sudden having close to 80% equity hands.

Hope this makes sense.

Board: 9♦4♥3♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     71.78%  71.78%   0.00% { 88 }
BB     28.22%  28.22%   0.00% { AJs, AJo }

Board: 9♦4♥3♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     65.25%  65.25%   0.00% { 6d5d }
BB     34.75%  34.75%   0.00% { AJs, AJo }

88 has more equity than 6d5d here. But that doesn't mean 88 is a better hand to play.

6d5d fits very well in a polarized betting range cause whenever it improves it improves to a very strong hand and that will happen a lot more often than 88 improving to a very strong hand.

This is what I meant in the last post. More equity doesn't mean more EV cause you won't be able to realize the equity of 88 properly but its a lot easier to realize the equity of 6d5d here.

So I threw 88 in bluffing range, even if it beats AJ, i won't know that against an overall x/c range and if 88 makes AJ fold, I'll consider that a successful bet.

TLDR...

All joking aside good job here mahee.

You clearly spent some time doing this.

When I referenced a raise on the flop I was more referring to raising vs calling (and I edited the initial post to make that more clear).

I agree that calling the flop is marginal because we have a hard time continuing with this and there are plenty of better hands we can do it with.

Raising at least is a one street bluff and again we have many better hands to raise with but if I really want to continue this hand (for whatever reason) I rather attack the pot now.

Of course folding is best almost always given the info we have.