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shorthanded AT top pair

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DodoBrabbel
Joined: 21.08.2009

Villain plays 28/16, so probably calls too much.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 127.8 BB
BTN: 202.8 BB
SB: 96.6 BB
BB: 116.2 BB
Hero (UTG): 100 BB
MP: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A:spade: T:heart:

Hero raises to 2.4 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 2.4 BB, fold, fold

I only open this UTG on weak tables, so I think its ok.

Flop: (6.2 BB, 2 players) 6:club: 5:spade: A:club:
Hero bets 4.6 BB, BTN calls 4.6 BB

obvious cbet for value.

Turn: (15.4 BB, 2 players) 4:spade:
Hero bets 11.2 BB, BTN calls 11.2 BB

Only 87 got there, and 88. So a bet for thin value on the turn.

River: (37.8 BB, 2 players) 3:diamond:
Hero checks, BTN bets 14 BB, Hero calls 14 BB

It really sucks to call here, but I couldn't bring myself to fold. What do you do?

Spoiler

BTN shows 2:diamond: A:diamond: (Straight, Six High)
(Pre 33%, Flop 16%, Turn 16%)
Hero mucks A:spade: T:heart: (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 67%, Flop 84%, Turn 84%)
BTN wins 63 BB


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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by DodoBrabbel
Villain plays 28/16, so probably calls too much. <<agreed

It really sucks to call here, but I couldn't bring myself to fold. What do you do?

Swear

I can sometimes find a fold, sometimes not.
in other words, I have no clue what would be "correct" but generally against unknowns, I let 'em get away with a few before I look 'em up -- so sample size would be important.

You quote VPIP/PFR but in this hand post-flop stats become important -- things like Afreq, Af and WTSD


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jawoftheox
Joined: 11.09.2013

I think it's an easy fold because half of villains range is suited aces and pocket pairs. You really only beat his bluffs imo and I don't see him bluffing with that sizing ever.


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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by jawoftheox
I think it's an easy fold because half of villains range is suited aces and pocket pairs. You really only beat his bluffs imo and I don't see him bluffing with that sizing ever.

Very good point.

Now comes the tricky part -- on which street to you fold?
A tighter player isn't opening AT pre-flop.

but after that...


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DodoBrabbel
Joined: 21.08.2009

@Vorpal Sample size was too small for good post-flop stats, so I only can make assumptions.

@Jawoftheox I think villain will call more than that pre-flop with these stats. But with that river bet now it is hard to think of a hand that I beat.


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