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Too thin value on river?

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pokerboy198229
Joined: 20.08.2011

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 111.6 BB
SB: 270.1 BB
BB: 109.5 BB
UTG: 127.2 BB
MP: 78 BB
CO: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♦ A♠

fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 5 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 4 BB

Flop: (11.5 BB, 2 players) 5♣ K♣ 2♦
MP checks, Hero bets 8.3 BB, MP calls 8.3 BB

Turn: (28.1 BB, 2 players) J♦
MP checks, Hero bets 14 BB, MP calls 14 BB

River: (56.1 BB, 2 players) Q♠
MP checks, Hero bets 84.3 BB and is all-in, MP calls 50.7 BB and is all-in

Spoiler

Hero shows A♦ A♠ (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 89%, Flop 80%, Turn 89%)
MP shows 4♠ K♦ (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 11%, Flop 20%, Turn 11%)
Hero wins 150.4 BB


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7 replies
Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

I'm not loving the run out but you either stack or get stacked on this board.

5.5BB ~ 9BB is my isolation raise vs weak players.


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id probably think about checking the river because the only hand thats calling and were beating is k10 and ak is unlikely. i wouldnt get my whole 100bb in on this hand

edit: wot


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Dragar
Joined: 09.09.2008

Yeah just check behind river. This outcome was lucky and non-standard. You usually get called with a two pair hand here or it just folds.


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danielillok93
Joined: 25.01.2017

Villain has 18 combos only on two pairs K-Q, K-J (let´s leave out Q-J, which shouldn´t call on flop. Only Q-J of clubs) plus 18 K-5, K-2s (in the end he had K-4, so he would have played those the same preflop). Adding 12 sets of 5 and 2s, 2 flush draws that turn into straight (A-10 and 9-10 of clubs) .
We could say there are around 50 combos that beat you and make sense with the hand.

I don´t think enough worse hands will pay you in that spot. Assuming that if he has a better hand he won't fold, you would need him to pay with 50 worse combos, or else is better to check behind.
A-K, K-10,K-9,K-8,K-7,K-6,K-4,K-3 make for 69 combos, but most of the times a K with a bad kicker would,t pay you there.

Anyway, if you have some statistics on him paying too much on river is close enough to try it


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I think we can size up a bit on the turn and checking back the river on that run out seems reasonable.


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KatalonacX
Joined: 22.11.2013

Bet bigger on turn and like 1/3 on river for thin value(all stronger Kx hits), fold to raise.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Originally posted by KatalonacX
Bet bigger on turn and like 1/3 on river for thin value(all stronger Kx hits), fold to raise.

If you bet bigger on turn you can't really bet 1/3 pot river and fold a shove with in mind he has less than 50bb behind if you bet turn at least 15bb. Than you have insane odds to call.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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