[plo2 zoom] overpair+fd on turn

is it too tight fold?

No

what do you think his range is?

You gave some good examples. I think he should 3bet deep OOP not too wide so lets say 6% 3bet OOP preflop range and from this range we pick Aces with flushdraw, top2 with flushdraw, wrap with flushdraw, sets

why doesn't he full pot?

Hard to say but you dont know if he doesnt know he has to or he maybe doesnt bluff full pot. If you get to showdown you can note down and maybe get a read

do i have fold equity here?

He showed much strength 3 times and SPR is ~2.5 I dont think you have fold equity here

can i push?

I think this would be -EV

can i call and fold river if i miss?
do i get any value on river if i hit?

For the last 2 questions have a look at my PPT results: You have like 29% equity here. assuming the betting ends at turn you would have a little -EV call on turn since you need like 33% to have a breakeven call.

Now on one hand you can assume that in some cases you improve and get payout from a smaller ss flush on the river. you have to consider that this wont happend that often because you block each others outs.

so assume most of the time you will see no spade on the river and fold, sometimes see a spade but dont get more bets from weaker hands (because it is obv when you called the flop you are drawing to a spade), sometimes see a spade but paired river, where a call is ugly when he bets and may be scary for him if he checks and you bet (otherwise you dont get any value).

based on these ideas I think it is only like 5% equity that you miss on the turn but it is also somewhat hard to get implied odds here and therefore I think a fold turn is not too tight but the best play even if it is somewhat close.

https://ibb.co/6Rjs6yX

no not so tight fold i think he have 3 kings ore fluch draw ore he only try to bluff

thank you everyone, esp. efkay, that was very detailed

according to monker solver we should call this hands preflop. we should call 97% of our suited Ace + brodway pair type of hands, so I would basically call any AsTT+. but I personally think it is good to fold hands with unsuited ace or pair (or both ace and pair) against 3bets if you are new to the game.

Imo I think a raise-allin otf makes sense, he might have a large cbet/fold range, we have top-set blocker (blocking his 2pair/top-pair combos aswell) and with nutflushdraw+overcard+jacks we will often have like (9 discounted to 7 flushouts + 2 set outs and sometimes 3 discounted to 2 ace overcard outs) = at least 9 (depending on if your Ace is live usually 10 or 13) clean outs. We would not like him having AA stack-off but wihtout accompanying side-draw we would still have decent equity against those. Against the rest of his likely overpair(+draw) hands either we are ahead (if he is bad and stacks off sth like bare KK) or have sth like 38-46% equity. this board is hard to hit for his 3betting-range (64xx+fd, 33 and 55's are unlikely). he would need to have a very strong and nutty cbetting range to bet here. from a gto point of view he should cbet this type of 3-low-suited flop texture like 50%, that's less frequent than on other boards because it is hard for villain to be betting balanced here. gto raise ip vs cbet frequency for half-pot cbet is like 15% and vs full pot we should raise 25% (and stack-off). as his sizing is somewhere between I would raise sth like 20%. that's a lot of hands, this hand you have (nut-combodraw) is a good hand to start with.

I am open for ideas about calling the flop and continuing on turns

Remember that solver plays against solver SB 3bet range and -strategy. In PLO2, 3bet range from SB is very AA heavy, and their strategy postflop is far from solver's. non-premium pocket pairs can be easily folded to 3bets in PLO2, unless opponent is an aggro.

I would pot the flop.

Imo I think a raise-allin otf makes sense

I would pot the flop.

you both aware of being deepstacked and spr flop is ~7-8?

Yes. In game theory wise, higher SPR creates more Fold Equity. Versus AAxx you have 47%, so if you have any FE it becomes highly +EV to raise.