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[Closed] Bad call or cold deck? AKs * AA

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Just wanted to get your opinion on this hand:
the situation is:
mtt: 1226 players
it is the final table - 5 players remain
chip stakes-
1st- villan 502,000
2nd- hero 489,000
3-4 - about 250,000 each
5th- 156,000
blind are 10,000-20,000 anti 2000

i am under the gun raise to 50,000 with AKs
on the SB villan re-raise to All-in 500,000

my first think is to fold becouse i never seen him 3bet
but still blinds here and there from BU or CO
it went in my mined that i dont needed it becouse felt
i played very good and out played them aloat of time
and if i fold i am still with aloat of chips and still in 2nd
and i should wait for a better hand.
That what that hit me - a better hand is only AA or KK
and sure he wouldent go all in straight away with AA and only
3-bet me
if he have KK so i have outs so i called and he shows
AA and they held up an i am out fifth for 345$
What is your opinion about this hand??


4 replies
TheRebuz
Joined: 12.10.2008

wow its not true that only AA & KK is better than AK
any pocket pair 22-AA is better than AK
just if villain got 22-qq u r gambling with AK with a decent chance of wining that coin flip but u r still behind, its like 54%-46% for any pocket vs AK so..
the Question here is what hand can u beat that SB can have??
answer is:
u r splitting if he have AK
u can beat only AQs/o-AJs (but i dont think that he will push with AJ), and bluff of course - he will not bluff often enough in this spot but he might do it lets say ~5-10% of time to push with any two cards like 97s in this spot,
so is clear that u r behind here in 85%-95% of time.

now u should think how far behind u r
if he got AA-KK u r way behind,
if he got any other pocket 22-qq u got 6 outs to win it and some flush and str8 possibilities lets say u got like ~8 outs total (with runner runner stuff and so... )to win

So Q is
DO U WANT TO GAMBLE???? do u want to play it save (live another day and that stuff) and wait for better spot ( your M=12 before this hand and now is 11 and u got to post BB and than SB) or u r going to gamble and hope for best and try to take this down right now

and btw if it is a bluf that all in move on SB u r 5:3 favorite with any 2 cards that SB can have lets say 97s so he can suck u out too

i see it like this

- 5%-10% u are ahead (when he blufs and when he got something like AQs/o/AJs)

- 85%-95% u are behind of which
80% u r behind 54%-46% (close enough for coin flip)
and 20% u r facing AA or KK

p.s. I would take my time and fold it 80% of time and stay 2 in stack but it will be tough fold too (folding just because he is big stack and his push can buy him some fold eq and he is only 1 that can bust me out in that point in 1 hand so i'll give him credit and fold here but 95% of time I'm calling any other push from 3-5 stack) , also this depends of the paying structure too


bah22
Joined: 28.01.2008

You have tough decision! AKs 5handed is huge hand usually!
As you say i don't think he would push it with AA/KK here cause he would 3bet more often. I think you are usually on a coinflip here!
It is really helpful if u have some reads on the villain. If he is good he will know you can't call him light in this situation and therefore he might push u around with marginal hands for example.
If he has lets say:7%(pretty tight) 3betting range. You have 55% equity. If u exclude AA/KK since he wouldn't push it, it is 58%.
Another factor is that there are 3 SS that might bust before us!
I usually aim for the first place, so that's why i would go all-in here. But if u prefer more cautious approach, you should fold and attack the SS players.

P.S. I like the villains move! He has tone of fold equity! :f_biggrin:


_Anonymous_ Topic starter
_Anonymous_

I liked his move to i told him that
my tought here was surly for the win becouse of that i called
and hoped to found AQ or jj-qq
i gess he did it becouse of the pressure of the linds and the final table
i took a look on his winnings in OPR and he was like up 200$
made only one final before gess he was in great pressure
and just played the aces the safest way he could
that is to go all in..
not important but the flop was-
KJT-praying for K or Q here
turn- 7 (QQQQQQ)
river- a lovely J ( close but not good for me...)

the villain won the tourny at the end and
got an entry to a 4ppl HU
first gets 5,000$
and passes to another 4ppl HU against pros to win bigger

to the ones that dont know it was a iron man freeroll..
That why i was so disaapointed about that hand
p.s: the villain finised 4th in the HU


in very late stage of tournament im not folding AK against one opponent here.
your M is ten and far away from beeing save win :)
so here you get in a spot where he might push something like
TT+AQs+ if he is very tight.
and 88+ AJs+ if he is not that tight.
im taking the call and try to win this hole tournament.


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