wow its not true that only AA & KK is better than AK
any pocket pair 22-AA is better than AK
just if villain got 22-qq u r gambling with AK with a decent chance of wining that coin flip but u r still behind, its like 54%-46% for any pocket vs AK so..
the Question here is what hand can u beat that SB can have??
answer is:
u r splitting if he have AK
u can beat only AQs/o-AJs (but i dont think that he will push with AJ), and bluff of course - he will not bluff often enough in this spot but he might do it lets say ~5-10% of time to push with any two cards like 97s in this spot,
so is clear that u r behind here in 85%-95% of time.
now u should think how far behind u r
if he got AA-KK u r way behind,
if he got any other pocket 22-qq u got 6 outs to win it and some flush and str8 possibilities lets say u got like ~8 outs total (with runner runner stuff and so... )to win
So Q is
DO U WANT TO GAMBLE???? do u want to play it save (live another day and that stuff) and wait for better spot ( your M=12 before this hand and now is 11 and u got to post BB and than SB) or u r going to gamble and hope for best and try to take this down right now
and btw if it is a bluf that all in move on SB u r 5:3 favorite with any 2 cards that SB can have lets say 97s so he can suck u out too
i see it like this
- 5%-10% u are ahead (when he blufs and when he got something like AQs/o/AJs)
- 85%-95% u are behind of which
80% u r behind 54%-46% (close enough for coin flip)
and 20% u r facing AA or KK
p.s. I would take my time and fold it 80% of time and stay 2 in stack but it will be tough fold too (folding just because he is big stack and his push can buy him some fold eq and he is only 1 that can bust me out in that point in 1 hand so i'll give him credit and fold here but 95% of time I'm calling any other push from 3-5 stack) , also this depends of the paying structure too