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TT mid-late stage of tournament

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stevegold87
Joined: 18.06.2009
PokerStrategist

Do you bet river here?

PokerStars - 800/1600 Ante 200 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 21.82 BB
MP+1: 26.93 BB
MP+2: 54.74 BB
Hero (CO): 44.46 BB
BTN: 12.85 BB
SB: 18.48 BB
BB: 76.09 BB
UTG: 13.5 BB
UTG+1: 28.04 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has T♦ T♠

fold, UTG+1 raises to 2.07 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.07 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (6.76 BB, 2 players) 7♣ 2♦ 9♦
UTG+1 bets 3.79 BB, Hero calls 3.79 BB

Turn: (14.34 BB, 2 players) 3♠
UTG+1 bets 9 BB, Hero calls 9 BB

River: (32.34 BB, 2 players) K♦
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks


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8 replies
Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010
Oldschool Grinder

What worse will call?
What better hand would fold?
Would JJ or QQ fold here?
AA certainly would not.

Your showdown value is really quite good.
If you bet, and he raises, now what?


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stevegold87 Topic starter
stevegold87
Joined: 18.06.2009
PokerStrategist

Yes all good point specially since he raises from UTG we can expect him to have a tight range I doubt we see A9-A7 often here


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008
Oldschool Grinder

Check behind river is decent indeed. Tough to get value of A7 and A9 if he would raise it from UTG+1.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Coach
maniac
Joined: 29.03.2006
Elite Grinder

dont you think we can get value if we bet 25%?


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yadijavadi
Joined: 31.01.2018
Legacy Member

No point Maniac. His JJ and QQ are more likely than 7x or 9x so the bet loses us money.

Vorpal, the villain is all-in if we bet the river. He can’t raise.

What to do... What to do...

Standard plays don’t look any good so you gotta get creative. I think a min-raise on the flop is the best play:

We look like the ubernuts to many villains so we should survive in this tourney if the villain has JJ+. I doubt they raise or bet again so we can check it down afterwards. We could also steal it away from these hands on a good turn card.

We also get value off some players overcards as we are giving them the best possible price to come along.

We’re protecting. This is important. We dont want his KQ to take this pot away from us.

We’re also leaving him room to bluff jam over the top. He might think this minraise is a little stab at the pot and so he could raise Jam some of his overcards. He could obvs also jam his draws.


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007
BlackMember

Preflop and flop calls are good to keep villain range wider. On turn with these shallow stacks I would go for shove. Only 13bb remaining after call so river SPR is 0.4 which means it's questionable to fold most rivers because of great pot odds.

So at this point on turn if we call we are fairly committed to pot but by not shoving we still allow some AK type hand to see river. Also if villain has flush draw he is likely calling shove. Well even better if he doesn't call.

On river I would just check as it's scary river completing flush so villain could still have some better hands that likely x-c anyway. So no need to turn hand into bluff and too thin to value shove.


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stevegold87 Topic starter
stevegold87
Joined: 18.06.2009
PokerStrategist

Interesting point thank you everyone

If I shove turn dont you think we run into JJ plus often from utg raise ?


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007
BlackMember

Sure that is danger but if you assume he has better too often you should be folding. As said calling turn to fold most rivers is very very questionable considering you need to be good around 20% of time. So to me times villain has better hand on turn is kind of irrelevant. Of course if stacks are deeper and we still have like SPR 1 on river we can argue about call turn and fold river to be perhaps better.


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