Facing a shove turn against a fish

Hi guys, sketchzr posted a hand that got a lot of replies. I decided to bring this hand to the highlight session because despite 16 replies no one used a very simple tool that could bring some clarity to the discussion: Equilab.

Here is the hand:

Originally posted by sketchzr
Villain seems a bit spewy but turn card is horrible for me. Maybe I'm checking the turn? I feel like I'm being bluffed off these spots often in other situations since it's been happening a tonne and usually at the same table.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $6.43 (VPIP: 35.00, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 20)
Hero (MP): $14.67
CO: $11.72 (VPIP: 32.26, PFR: 19.35, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
BTN: $10.62 (VPIP: 41.27, PFR: 6.35, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 65)
SB: $12.98 (VPIP: 26.56, PFR: 21.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 65)
BB: $15.47 (VPIP: 20.93, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 44)

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q♥ Q♣

fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, BTN calls $0.30, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.75, 2 players) 3♣ 4♠ J♣
Hero bets $0.54, BTN calls $0.54

Turn: ($1.83, 2 players) 5♣
Hero bets $1.10, BTN raises to $9.78 and is all-in

Spoiler

BTN wins $3.85

The flop and turn bets, against a loose fish seem very standard to me, sizes included.

So, let's get to the juicy part of the hand. Can we call a shove? The answer to this question depends mainly, of course on what type of hands do we expect villain to shove here. What we should do is calculate our pot odds and play around with different shove ranges in equilab to see if our intuition is correct. Because this type of equity vs pot odds calculation is EXACTLY what we are doing in our head when deciding to call the shove or not.

So let's see.

Pot odds: what we have to put in the pot divided by the final pot = 8.68 / 21.39 = 0.406 = ~40%

So, for us to be able to call the shove profitably our equity has to be higher than 40%.

Let's try first a pessimistic range for villain, where he only shoves flushes, straights and some sets:

Board: J♣4♠3♣ 5♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    12.00%  12.00%   0.00% { QhQc }
MP3    88.00%  88.00%   0.00% { 44-33, A2s, 76s, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Qc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, Kc7c, Qc7c, Jc7c, Tc7c, 9c7c, 8c7c, Ac6c, Kc6c, 8c6c, Ac5c, 6c5c, Ac4c, 5c4c, Ac3c }

Ok, we can see above that if villain only shoves this strong range then we have a very easy fold.

Now, let's try a more optimistic range, let's say villain shoves hands like some Jx with a club, and combos of Axo with the A of clubs, besides the strong hands I talked about before:

Board: J♣4♠3♣ 5♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    32.29%  32.29%   0.00% { QhQc }
MP3    67.71%  67.71%   0.00% { 44-33, A2s, 76s, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Qc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, Kc7c, Qc7c, Jc7c, Tc7c, 9c7c, 8c7c, Ac6c, Kc6c, 8c6c, Ac5c, 6c5c, Ac4c, 5c4c, Ac3c, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, Ac7d, Ac7h, Ac7s, Ac6d, Ac6h, Ac6s, Ac5d, Ac5h, Ac5s, Ac4d, Ac4h, Ac4s, Ac3d, Ac3h, Ac3s, Ac2d, Ac2h, Ac2s, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs }

So we need not advance any further. Because even if we are very optimistic, saying that villain shoves everytime hands like AcXx, we still don't have enough equity to call.

This type of exercise really cuts through the fog of our minds. Even an experienced player like myself has something to learn by doing this. Before doing this analysis I felt that if villain shoves enough Axo with A clubs our call would not be that bad. But I was wrong, it really is very bad to call here.