So I have been a casual player for years, but looking to improve. I have been getting into the specifics of odds of hitting draws versus the expected return and pot size. I am trying to become consistent in my plays and therefore profitable while playing online. In order to learn, I have been calculating what the breakeven point on bet size for chasing draws. This is one of my weakness areas, and I go way to often on "feel" on whether or not to chase that flush or straight draw against a better hand.
I fully understand the odds when looking at one card at a time. Flushes for example, with 9 outs, and most calculations putting it around 19% that you'll hit that flush on the river. So with 4:1odds, it's making sense to me then that it's not profitable in the long run to chase a bet beyond that. Say $10 on a $40 pot. As far as I understand it, a $5 bet would be worth it to win 40, while even an 11 would not.
This makes sense to me, and the odds or the same if you look at JUST the turn.
Where I am getting myself confused is looking at the Turn and River together... odds for hitting the flush when calculating the turn AND river, rise to around 35%. making it more like a 2:1odds situation.
SO, that would make the breakeven point as much as a 10$ bet for a 20$ pot with a bet on the turn, but doesn't that then assume that I would also call on the river? What if the opponent makes a massive bet before the river forcing a fold. Did we lose the value of accepting a larger bet on the turn?
Example, after the flop pot is $10. I have flush draw, they have an over pair etc. At 4:1, I should accept any bet by the opponent that is 3.30 or lower. this would be long term sustainable to win 13.30. However, if you include the 35$ odds with the river too, I should be calling all the way up to a $10 bet to win $20. Now, assuming the turn is useless, the river is back to a 4:1, which would necessitate a call for on a $10 bet in the first scenario, or a $5.5 bet on the $16.60 pot in the second scenario.
If the opponent makes consistent $10 bets in the first scenario, I've put in $20, and will win $40 3:1, and would break even. Is that the correct play? or should I be lowering my turn chasing threshold down to the $3.30 bet before the turn to protect myself from a potential fold before the river? I feel like I am risking losing $6.70 unless I am committed to chasing on the river too.
What am I missing?
VS