please advise

Hi, Balltas...
Disclaimer: I am NOT a coach!

What was his aggression like?

Is this zoom?

Really deep stacked like this, he has a wider range than normal.
If he was drawing, the bricked turn means he has a lot less chance of hitting, so he may be just trying to get you to fold your pocket pairs.

OTOH, made straights, and trip tens are very real possibilities.

How far do you want to go with top 2 pair 200 BB deep?

You have 4 outs, so your pot odds suck, if you think you need them.

As you can tell from the ramble, I don't want to stick my neck out and offer actual advice.

I would hate to fold this, but I probably would.

I would probably reraise the flop. If you THEN get a shove, then you have an easier fold, and it costs you less than calling the turn.

Just some thoughts...
--VS

If he's pretty loose then I expect him 3 bet TT/KK/AA close to 100% of the time here, so we can rule out most sets.

I think you have to ask yourself, does villain c/r flop here with the nut straight?

And what the hell is he doing over jamming the turn (which is a huge brick).

For me it's a fold, for the times he doesn't have jq he's still probably like 35% so it's going to be -ev in the long run to call 300BB bets in these spots w/o the nuts or good redraws

I think, because you are so deep you can fold here. I can imagine him shoving TT or QJ here. Also he's check/raise on the flop indicates a strong hand. I would have 3betted on the flop, and fold to he's 4bet.

I doubt he's trying to bluff you off AK. he has it

Fold all day.

with your stack you should fold, that is the nuts shove with a QJ IMO

I doubt he's trying to bluff you off AK. he has it

Turn: ($1.24) 5 (2 players)
SB bets $11.96 and is all-in, Hero?

U had 10.68 left on river so villain is in fact risking 10.68 to win 1.24

From villain's perspective, break-even = risk /(risk+reward)
Break-even = 10.68/(10.68+1.24)
=~89.6%

I think it is a pretty wild speculation to say villain is bluffing when the threshold to break-even is close to 90%.

hmmm... I dunno, maybe we should get another opinion on this one...

282bb deep, it's a fold.

100bb deep I'm probably calling

Had a very similar hand to this last session. The flop texture is quite different being three cards to a flush but I think similar scenarios like this can be very villain dependent. I mean this in that I am not giving the villain in my hand enough credit to be able to even think about break-even percentages. He was a bit of a maniac and I watched him over bet after over bet in an attempt to run over the table. Agg fish. I witnessed about three C/r all-in over bets on the flop in the space of about 30 hands by this villain (albeit no one called these ones). He loved scary boards to force folds. My call was a quick intuitive call and I am yet to do any mathematical evals on this particular hand yet in terms of the correctness of my call (anyone want to chime in feel free haha), except I have ran villains 'generate folds to break-even' at %67. So I guess if he was taking that into account then maybe I would fold %67 of the time there without an A or club. The hand just smelt super fishy.

Anyway, hope this helps shed some light on your situation too.

Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

CO: $5.23
BTN: $9.05
SB: $5.00
Hero (BB): $7.01
UTG: $8.13
UTG+1: $7.59
UTG+2: $1.50
MP1: $3.11
MP2: $5.00

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BB with Ac Kc
3 folds, MP1 calls $0.05, 2 folds, BTN raises to $0.22, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.85, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.63

Flop: ($1.77) As 4s 3s (2 players)
Hero bets $1.27, BTN raises to $8.20 all in, Hero calls $4.89 all in

Turn: ($14.09) Kd (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($14.09) 5h (2 players - 2 are all in)

Villain had 66 and no spade.