postdraw question 5CD

The normal/standard play is actually to bet, because from game theory, the BB needs to call+ ( includes legitimate checkraises ) with a frequency of f ~ 9(0.97)/(4+9(0.97)) ~ 0.68578162. Recall that the probability of improving a pair is p ~ 4656/16215 ( ignoring cards in the other hand(s)) ~ 0.28714154 which is strictly less than half of f; thus, if the BB is playing unexploitably, he should call with an unimproved pair about 55.921351% of the time; however, in practice, many typical players in the BB won't call unimproved even 40% of the time and against such players, betting two pairs with no chance of beating some two pairs the BB could make will be a bet with negative expectation.

Leaving the theoretical aspects aside, if you have a wide semibluffing range or are sometimes playing exploitively, some of your opponents will pick up on that and will have an excuse to call you. From the cutoff, many aggressive/good players will raise a lot of flush draws and hands like AKQ(J/T)x and AJT98, and some will even draw one to a pair ( not necessarily recommended! ), so the BB should normally pay off with AA or KK ( because his proper defending range of one pair hands will include JJ and sometimes TT ). OTOH, if the cutoff is perceived to have a tight image or not bluff much or have a narrow semibluffing range, then it makes sense that the cutoff not try to extract value with two small pairs against a typical BB; still, an exception would be if the BB is a calling station, so even though your semibluffs from any position may have been reduced because of who is in the BB, you can still bet any two pairs for value.

At the low limits, it sometimes does make sense against tight opposition in the BB to play a super fast approach: to have a wide semibluffing range and to have it is wide as reasonable, the cutoff ought to bet not just any two pairs, but any A-high flush draw or AKQ(J/T)x that happened to just pair on aces.

On balance, if you want to know what the BB defends with, you could check; if you want to test out the BB to see if he will call you ( maybe unimproved ), you should bet; thus, it depends on the information you want. Also, the other players at the table will notice if you check two small pairs. Although checking is not the most testing play, it's not necessarily related to whether the cutoff will be exploitable by the BB's bets in this situation in the future.

Originally posted by Karl1977
On a side note, even 0.25/0.50 is tough nowadays, often you seem to only get a play (instead of picking up the blinds) when
they hold at least AA, AAXX or trips.
Hi, Karl1977,
I think that your observation is correct -- but the only way to counteract that is to open the throttle, and pick up the hands when they don't have AAxxx+

On the two-pair hand.
I think bet/fold is the way to go.
Unimproved AA will call often enough to value bet this -- but only if you have shown some open-raised draws.

Originally posted by bigpooch
Also, the other players at the table will notice if you check two small pairs. Although checking is not the most testing play, it's not necessarily related to whether the cutoff will be exploitable by the BB's bets in this situation in the future.

Assuming he was not drawing 3 to a flush or a straight, he has a pair pre. There is a less-than-even chance he improved.
In this case, it is unlikely he improved to worse, but it is at least possible.
By checking, you deny him the opportunity to make a mistake (calling with worse, or folding better)

I think I leave a lot of money on the table checking these behind.

Then again, I lose a lot when I forget the fold part of bet/fold.

<sigh>
VS

Thanks Bigpooch and Vorpal for your replies and your help!

Vorpal btw I saw in another post that you use a HUD for 5CD ? However it says it doesn't work for 5CD but you seem to be able to use it somehow

Originally posted by Karl1977
Thanks Bigpooch and Vorpal for your replies and your help!

Vorpal btw I saw in another post that you use a HUD for 5CD ? However it says it doesn't work for 5CD but you seem to be able to use it somehow
For 5-Card Draw I'm using fpdb.
The HUD works, and you can review your stats (and other players' stats also), but you cannot use it to run queries like: "How did I do raising JJxxx in the CO?"

The other 5-Card Draw capable HUD is Pokerhands.
It does allow such queries, but it seems incapable of handling a database of over 100K hands w/o become unbearably slow, so by the time you have sufficient hands to have a meaningful sample size, the program becomes next to useless.

<sigh>
VS