*** Collin Moshman Blog ***

I like the line of overbet/shoving the turn. You have the stone cold there. No call he makes can be correct, but he will sometimes make them, because he is a fish, and he hopes for his draw to hit. He may even have the 8 x :diamond:for a worse straight and draw.

The river is either bet/fold or check behind. I kind of like check behind, because the river bet may actually induce him to bluff shove his Q8 hands for value. Other than that, he has to have backed into a flush or have exactly AQ. Definitely a fold after his shove, but maybe that makes the bet incorrect.

Having said that, he only needs to call a worse hand 14% of the time, and it is for value. Maybe that is the point of thin value play, that people like me haven't quite got yet.

Antonioull, when he check/shoves the river I think he's almost never value-betting worse and it's pretty rare he's bluffing, it's also reasonable that he'd get to the river with a hand like AdTd or QdTd. But I do agree that if I'm planning to fold to a check/shove it may be better to just check it back at the river.

Aciddrop, good point about the turn shove. On the river, the % he calls with a worse hand is important but also how often he folds and check/shoves with worse -- you're right though, it's thin enough that checking back instead would be very reasonable.

Hi Collin

Is he a winning player ?

16/4 seems reas. however u never know
Actually i didnt see he CHECKED the river lol just now , yes i agree that
makes it less likely hes bluffing however i have seen stranger things
so although now im inclined to agree with you , if i know the player does some weird bluffs or is recreational i will call and hope to win 50% of times

If hes a decent player i agree with the fold

Cool thanks for the feedback Atonioull.

Today's Blog:

Is It Always a Mistake to Drop out of School and Play Poker?

I was recently referred to as an “elder statesman” of poker. Let’s face it: at 31 I’m a damn dinosaur. Of course, with age comes knowledge. I’ve been asked in my great wisdom several times by young players whether they should drop out of college to player poker. While fewer US players face this decision post BF, I’m gonna soldier on and give my thoughts.

The easiest reply to the stay-in-school question is just to follow the party line and say “absolutely not, educational is vital, don’t toss away a great opportunity,” etc. Sometimes that answer is right.

Poker is not necessarily forever. TV ratings can go down, fewer new players get interested, games dry up. (Of course, the opposite can happen as well.) Governments also have a habit of ruining the party. So even if poker does go very well and you’re making good money, you could end up in a position where you can no longer support yourself by playing due to circumstances out of your control. If you have no degree and no formal work experience, you’ll probably be in a bad position if that happens.

But the question is, how likely are you to be in a better position if you finish college? If you’re studying to be a doctor, lawyer, engineer, or some other job where you absolutely need that degree/education, then you should absolutely continue. Get your degrees, play poker on the side, and definitely don’t drop out of college (or Uni for the non-US crowd!) to be a poker pro. If poker doesn't work out for whatever reason, you've suddenly made a really big mistake.

The thing is, a lot of people go to college just because that’s what everyone does and you’re supposed to. They get a degree/education that doesn’t have a clear purpose in the job market, while meanwhile they don’t generate much or any income while going deeper into debt with student loans. Sure the degree itself has value. But is it worth four years and often substantial debt to get it?

Poker isn’t the perfect solution. If you had a decent job opportunity where you could work for four years and end up having made money, avoided debt, and four years work experience on your resume, that'd be a lot better in terms of a longterm plan. With poker you may end up no longer being able to make down the road, and then have little to put on your resume if that happens. Of course there are also plenty of people who end up graduating from college with a lot of debt unable to find decent jobs.

In short, the answer may not always be to stay in school no matter what. There are no sure things with either path, just be realistic about the pros and cons of whatever you choose and try to have as many backup plans as possible. And if you're on the sidelines, remember that it’s a complicated decision; avoid the mistake of thinking that you necessarily know better than the person who has to make it for their own life.

Originally posted by CollinMoshman
They get a degree/education that doesn’t have a clear purpose in the job market, while meanwhile they don’t generate much or any income while going deeper into debt with student loans

Had a good chuckle at "elder statesman" at age 31.

I have a degree and a professional certification in another field. I work in neither field -- although I did work in each for a time.

There is a lot more to completing a degree than just the job prospects.
The sense of fulfilment, and all of the other intangibles actually do mean something.

My last year of university, I did a full-time program, and drove cab 40 hrs per week to pay for it, and I was supporting a wife and 2 kids. No online poker then -- or online anything in 1980, for that matter.

I've heard of several people who go to school full time AND grind about that many hours each week. And they probably make better money doing it.

I've regretted a lot of things, but I've never regretted finishing school.

I'm very glad that you finished your degree and it is working out very well for you Vorpal; my point was just that it was a decision everyone needs to make for themselves.

Mail Bag: Is It Possible to “Calculate” Fold Equity?

I’ve gotten the same question twice recently, which is whether there’s a formula for fold equity. The answer is yes: (Hand Combos he calls you with / Hand Combos currently in his range) x 100%

One of the fold equity questions came with an example; I’ll reprint it below and then give a method for answering.

MTTer writes:

Ok so the scenario is on the turn board is 7h4h5x, turn is a 7x.

Do you think there is a way to calculate how often they will fold, or a number to use to add to the equation to see if it's +ev to re-ship here... ofc assuming a certain range based on the way the villian played it.

Here’s the EV equation for shoving:

EV = P (He Folds) x Reward (He Folds) + P (He Calls) x Reward (He Calls)

So let’s solve for these.

Reward (He Folds) = Current Pot = $8295

P (He Folds) = Hand Combos he Calls with / Hand Combos currently in his range

Without knowing how the hand played out it’s tough to give those ranges, so let’s just put something in and say that his current range is: 98s, T9s, J9s, JT (excluded suited in hearts for each of these), 44, 55, 77, 88+. Decent draws he just ships the turn, so his range is mainly weak high card hands he’s bluffing with and full house/overpairs he’s gonna call us with.

There are 3 hand combos each of the non-heart suited hands and 15 non-heart JT hands for 24 hands he’s folding. There are an additional 3 each of 44, 55, and 77, and 6 each of 88+ for 51 hands he’s calling with. Therefore fold equity = 24 / (24+51) = 32%.

The “reward” of him calling depends on the equity our hand has against his calling range. The player who asked the question didn’t give his hand (making a brotha work for his cheddar!) so let’s say it was a semi-bluff like KhQh (which actually eliminates 6 combos from Villain’s calling range and increases our fold equity to 35%). According to Equilab we have 24% equity against his calling range with KhQh. So when he calls we’re paying $6595 to have 24% equity in a $19425 pot for a “reward” of $4662 - $6595 = -$1933.

Lastly P (He Calls) = 1 – P (He Folds) = 0.65

So EV = 0.35 x $8295 + 0.65 x (-$1933) ~ $1650

Basically all this means is that we have some fold equity shoving in a pot this huge relative the effective remaining stack, and we suckout a reasonable % of the time when he calls, it’s a good spot.

One alternative is to say that we want EV > 0 and solve for P (He Folds) to see what % the guy needs to fold for the shove to be profitable.

Also usual caveat that the EVs above are relative to baseline of folding and calling could be more profitable depending on assumptions.

Nice post on "Is It Always a Mistake to Drop out of School and Play Poker?" As for the calculating fold equity post il have to wait till the morning to take a look at it.Maths at 1:30am = waaay over my head ♠_biggrin:

Am I right that once the second 7 appears on turn, there's only one combo of 77 in his range, meaning he's only calling with 49 combos? Never was very good at maths so I forced myself to work through this...

Also,

"Villian bets 2040 and has 4555 behind, at blind level 60/120.

Pot was 6235 before the Villian bet, so pot now is 8295."

6235+2040 is 8275, rather than 8295.

Not that either of these matters since it's just an illustration; but it proves I did the workings out by myself. So now I go to the head of the class.

Good points Tim, top marks for going through the calculation yourself!

And thanks Jason, glad you liked the college post.

Huge Stats-Based Fold at the Big $109 FT

My friend Greg Jones just released a course on 9-man SNGs that I wrote the forward to. It includes a text, three videos, and an intro where he tells a story about me eating a huge burrito and calling a $50 bill “chump change.” (My recollection is that I politely asked the waiter for change, but I come across as a trendy if somewhat arrogant baller in his version so that’s cool.)

I think the material – particularly the sections on pivot points and range construction -- should be very useful to any 9-man player at the beginner or intermediate level, so definitely check it out.

-----

Congrats to BlackPersian for chopping the Big $109 3-handed today, then shipping it for the points. There was an interesting hand he played that we discussed involving a possible huge stats-based fold that then got analyzed quite a bit in the TM Skype Strategy chat.

8-handed at the final table, folds to Hero in SB with stack of ~ 35bb. He opens 2.1x with AJo, and Villain shoves a stack of around 20bb in the big blind. Villain has stats of 4/2 (0% 3bet) after 70 hands. Call or fold?

I thought this was a pretty clear decision. 20 bb deep post-ante, BvB, raise/calling AJo? Seems the definition of standard. While BP did make the call, a decision I strongly agree with, he brought up the possibility of raise/folding based on the stats. I was surprised when a couple others liked that idea and/or thought it was very close.

The problem to me with raise/folding is that it’s just too exploitable. If we’re opening say two-thirds of hands here and folding a hand like AJo to a shove, he’ll have a great ATC 3bet and can exploit us like crazy. Of course, if he we know that he’s on a static 3bet range of JJ+/AK or something insanely tight like that, then it doesn’t matter that he could exploit us since he’s not. But to me, 70 hands of extreme tightness isn’t a big enough read to make a huge fold like this.

So my question: Would you ever consider folding in this spot, and what type of read/stack sizes/other factors would you need to fold AJo 20bb deep in a BvB spot?

Hi, just watched video with your analysis, literate arguments, I really enjoyed it.

About that hand KT vs QQ, I think you were result oriented, against a stack with 9bb it's an easy push. If we lose in that hand, we still stay at sng with good stack.

Thnx for your video.

Thanks for the feedback MountainRose. I agree that shoving the KTo is very +EV, but I also think minraising is even higher EV.

Ken “Teach” Aldridge and the Million Dollar Stake

There’s a substantial 2+2 thread about the efforts of a player to sell his action in the upcoming $1M WSOP event. The majority of posters seem disinclined to invest. Understatements aside, the thread is basically mocking the guy. Here are the two main criticisms made by posters, along with my comments.

The player is –EV in the tournament. Whether this is true depends on his skill level relative to that of the field, as well as the rake -- or in this case, amount withheld for charity. I’d very much tend to imagine that posters are right about him being –EV. With that said, most of the reasons he lists in favor of investing don’t pertain to it being a good spot $-wise. If you buy a $200 piece of the guy to be able to say you’ve got a piece of someone in that tourney, support the One Drop charity, and possibly win an autographed hoodie, that’d certainly be your prerogative. After all, any tournament where over 10% of the prizepool is withheld as a charitable donation can’t be all about the money right?

So while I definitely wouldn't invest in him, he is right that people can have other motives besides money for buying a piece of a player in a major tourney.

He makes misleading statements in his pitch. A lot of the 2+2 thread pertains to a Pokernews article containing dubious comments by Teach that was later taken down. On his current site though, the main thing I object to is his bullet point, “Potentially get 80% (normally 50%) return on investment.” First, by “return on investment” he's using a non-standard meaning of “% of any cash returned to investor.” So if he cashes for $2M, then someone who bought a $200 piece would receive back $320.

His claim that this figure is normally 50% is inaccurate. That would be the equivalent of a markup of 2.0, whereas markups of around 1.1-1.3 are standard in situations where the players is likely to have an edge. Most likely he’s not intentionally trying to mislead people. But when you’re selling action, particularly to a demographic who may be less experienced with live staking, you shouldn’t call terms “normal” without doing the research first.

With all that said, in the unlikely event he does manage to play, I certainly wish him the best. And with there being a large number of people mocking his chances and declining to invest, obviously the dude’s shipping it.

hey Collin, am curious do you play PLO at all?

If yes, what lead you to play.

If not, the inverse, what lead you not to play.

My gut feeling is you don't play it yet, but i'm not sure.
any plans for it?

Hi Conall88, I play some omaha but it's limit and not much PLO. Would be fun to learn though.

Stars Buying FTP? And an Interesting MTT Hand with 44

The big news today is the rumor that Stars is buying FTP. Best case scenario is:

All FTP players (US and rest-of-world) getting fully repaid

Both sites back online, including Stars or both back in US soon

There’s no question it’s great news, but it’s not a certainty at this point and timeframes are unknown. Requests for 90% or higher paid for FTP funds – as there have been several posts like today – are optimistic. There’s still need for confirmation this is correct, everything to actually go through in presumably a pretty complex deal, logistics of payment, and the timeline to consider. But it’s good news and let’s hope it happens, more to come.

Merge $33 turbo, Villain is 20/17 after 101 hands, dead SB. How would you rank the lines of fold, call, 3bet/call, 3bet/fold, and 3bet shove?

Merge (200/400 blinds, 40 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players

Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

UTG+2: 6,628 (16.6 bb)

MP1: 10,750 (26.9 bb)

MP2: 11,994 (30 bb)

MP3: 2,740 (6.9 bb)

CO: 2,161 (5.4 bb)

BTN: 9,599 (24 bb)

Hero (BB): 19,926 (49.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4s 4d

5 folds, BTN raises to 800, Hero...?

There is no small blind so a steal is less attractive, and opponent looks like a standard TAG. It depends on your reads on this opponent.

I see only two possibilities worth consideration, which would be 3bet/fold, where the possibility of him throwing his hand away against your 3bet is high, otherwise calling for set value.

Folding to the minsteal doesn't warrant thinking time given implieds, 3bet/call would have to be spew against his range for doing that, 3bet/shoving only if you know he is a trickster, not likely given his stats.

As you are the table chip leader comfortably, and his stack is also comfortable, I can't see him wanting to go broke against you without top of his range.

what is his open from btn first in stat?
...
readless imo 3bet ai > call (with intrention to c/r on some flops when u miss) >>>>>>>other options r spew imo withouth any history/dinamic

I agree with your ranking TheRebuz, and AcidDrop nice comments but I think he'll be opening wide enough that shoving will be profitable.

Buying FTP $, Insane Live 1/3, and Kindle Book Sales

Insane Live 1/3 Game

Katie and I played in a beyond-wild $1/$3 game at Hard Rock on Saturday. The guy to my left didn’t understand it was table stakes. He had a stack of $19, dealer told him it was $25 to call, and he said “Aww for real?”, reached into his pocket and pulled out his wallet. Dealer told him it was just what he had on the table and he seemed to consider folding at that point.

Table Stakes (who was actually a very nice guy) and I tangled in a few hands, including my last hand at the table. I limp KK UTG as probably 95% of pots were raised by one of two players, but alas, not this time: The entire 8-handed table called behind.

Flop: Ah Kh 8c (Pot: $24)

Blinds check, I toss out two red chips, table stakes raises to $20, player to his left flats, everyone folds back to me, I raise to $40 (wouldn’t normally size this small but they were both really short), they both call.

Turn: Td (Pot: $144)

I gangsta-toss a benji into the middle, table stakes calls all-in for about $20, player to his left calls all-in for about $60.

River blanks, table stakes flashes a queen with a knowing look, and I win the pot. Ship it!

Meanwhile Katie immediately shot up about $800 when she limped/shoved JJ $300 deep and got called by A5, then called a 150bb overbet shove with 44 on a flop of Q54. When the guy got called he sighed and was like, “I probably got kicker trouble here.” She actually put up a Cardplayer blog on the game from her perspective, check it out here.

Kindle Book Sales

A couple years ago, Katie and I took on the long project of writing a full-length thriller called The Superuser. Reviews were good but sales were slow, in large part because we were getting very little exposure as a self-published Kindle book. I read another low-priced indy thriller on Kindle called Thread of Hope, where the author blogged about being in a similar situation, then making the book free for a couple of days, getting a ton of downloads, and then doing very well in paid sales once the book had a price tag again.

So it was experiment time for us. Between last Friday and Sunday it was free, and its free sales ranking improved until it was #60 or so in Kindle Free, and we got over 6000 downloads.

Not everyone can manage to make 6000 x $0 for three day’s work baby!

It was cool though that people were reading it, and our hope was that sales would be decent when it returned to the paid category.

Well on Monday it became paid again and sales were very slow again, but yesterday and today it looks like they’ve picked up some as we're currently about 6,000 in Kindle Paid which is better than it's been at any point previously. It's also doing a lot better in searches. So the experiment continues, but even if we never get a huge number of sales, it was still a very fun project where I got to collaborate with an amazing writer. So no regrets no matter what happens at this point!

Buying FTP $$

Another tough spot with a horse recently. Very talented MTT/MTTSNG player and friend/nice guy, always behind on rent/expenses and needed a loan. Like I’ve blogged about before, I used to be pretty quick to loan money in these situations particularly to friends and players I trusted. Since then I’ve had a lot of bad experiences unfortunately, including super-long repayment times, outright defaults, and hard feelings from players I had thought of as good friends.

In this case though, we were able to reach a diffferent arrangement. While I’m not actively looking to buy FTP $$, he had money caught on there so I bought a chunk. The EV of this purchase is tough to assess. On the one hand, I paid a significant discount compared to par value. On the other hand, a lot has to go right for me to collect:

Stars has to in fact go through with the purchase
DOJ has to accept
Player balances have to be refunded
He has to actually pay me (would be very surprised if 1-3 happened and he didn’t pay, but I’ve been wrong before)

And even if all four of those happen, the timeframe is very unknown. But at least this way he gets to pay his rent and I've got the potential to make a bit more if FTP money does get repaid.