Biggest possible downswing

You must be an employee of the site. Anyone with vast experience on the site knows the software is a disgrace as you see the bad beats come relentlessly one after the other. Somehow you just know that 2 outer is coming to get you on the river. Heres some good supporting evidence. I see on Sharkscope that the guy who worte the book "Secrets Of Sit & Gos" has lost around $40K in the last 3 years. I guess its all about rakeback for him.

Originally posted by tombundyRNMD
yet my biggest nemesis plays this way and has won 62% of pots against me (from almost 1200 clashes). .

not very surprising if you are calling utg shoves with JT with 10bb.

Originally posted by tombundyRNMD
You're right my figure included bonus money - actual result from 5000 $3.50's 3.3%. Certainly room for improvement although I notice the most successful players are lunatics. Not sure I can see myself shoving UTG with J9 off and 10bbs yet my biggest nemesis plays this way and has won 62% of pots against me (from almost 1200 clashes). Can't help but become suspicion when I call him with JT and he beats me again and again and again. I notice that he (and other suspicious players) lack one key element in their sharkscope results ie. downswings! Beggars belief how they can run well all the time and the sites response to my query lacks credibility imo. Seems to me that mathematically correct play is punished by Pokerstars when makes me highly suspicious after now 500,000 hands of results. I would be very surprised if I am alone in this opinion.

Know the feeling dude, you will have specific regs beat you over and over and over for thousands upon thousands of hands, it's just unavoidable. You should also find regs who YOU beat over and over too. The simulation in the OP is also way off. Much higher ROI's than those can reap way bigger downswings than those. What is most scary about those simulations is realising that you can't get in that many hands LIVE over any amount of years so you could in fact just run bad your entire life in live games. Of all the Iveys, Negreanus etc there's probably a million nobodies who play better but just never ever win due to luck. Thankfully we have the internet to rack up as many games as possible to reduce that variance risk as much as possible, although you could still run bad over 20k or more tournies.

That said, at the $3.50 level am pretty sure 20+% is attainable and you will have many leaks.

Originally posted by tombundyRNMDCertainly room for improvement although I notice the most successful players are lunatics.

[1]
Not sure I can see myself shoving UTG with J9 off and 10bbs yet my biggest nemesis plays this way and has won 62% of pots against me (from almost 1200 clashes).

[2]
Can't help but become suspicion when I call him with JT and he beats me again and again and again. I notice that he (and other suspicious players) lack one key element in their sharkscope results ie. downswings! Beggars belief how they can run well all the time and the sites response to my query lacks credibility imo.

Seems to me that mathematically correct play is punished by Pokerstars when makes me highly suspicious after now 500,000 hands of results. I would be very surprised if I am alone in this opinion.

If you wish to be taken seriously, I would suggest that rather than writing off successful players as "lunatics" that you study the game, to try to figure out WHY you lose so much.

In [1] you state that you can't see yourself pushing w/ J9o w/ 10bb.
Run the ICM trainer through a few thousand hands to find lots of situations in the push/fold stage of a SNG where that is the correct play.

After [1] you state in [2] that when you call a raise ahead of you w/ JT he beats you "again and again"

Well duh! Download Equilab and put JT in against any logical open raising range t see what you get.
Here, for example is JT from the BTN vs a standard MP3 range:

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP3    62.35%  61.17%   1.17% { 55+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, ATo+, KQo }
BU     37.65%  36.48%   1.17% { JTs, JTo }

You're calling as a 2:1 dog and are surprised when you're beaten "again and again"?

It is especially odd that you pick JT as the example here, because in the previous paragraph you say you'd never play J9.

Lack of downswings:
As you read the blogs of the good players on PokerStrategy.com you will see several with only a few, short downswings. They are the REALLY good players.

My suggestion is that you take the quiz, register with a poker room that is tracked, and start studying the articles here.

If you enjoy the game for what it is, prepare your mind, and apply yourself, you will succeed.

The two most important things in this game are attitude and effort. Luck hardly enters into it, but yes it is a factor. Of the three, you control two.

Go for it ...

And Good Luck
--VS

Thanks for your thoughts but I think I need to clarify calling with JT. I used this example simply because I KNOW this player will shove with any two with 10bbs therefore my range is much much wider. I understand SNG Wiz well and also the ICM workings. My point is simply this - if players are going to play wildly they will get lucky many times - as well us unlucky many times. But where are their downswings??? No downswings simply cannot be right. And how can online poker really be trusted after Full Tilt, Absolute, Ultimate, and god knows what other undected cheating going on. Pretty scary knowing you can go your whole life of live poker on a downswing - at least you will be on a heater in hell!

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
I think that the problem with the random-number-generator "simulations" is that they do not account for such things as reads, positional advantage, the ability to fold a big hand when needed and other poker skills. They also don't account for tilt.

There was a video recently where bogdan ran several simulations using cash games though.

The site he used is here:
Play with the site, and use a winrate of 5bb/100, and
start w/ a standard deviation of 90.
The worst run results in winning 30K bb
The best run results in winning 60K bb

The more hands you play, the more the spread between the "luckiest" player, and the "unluckiest" player.

To make things easy, let's call the luckiest guy "Phil Ivey", an the other one, "Me".

both of us have THE SAME WINRATE. but the spread is huge.

Now drop the SD to 5.
Note how now the runs are all grouped together at around 50K bb

The ultimate conclusion is that "Variables that you have no control over have an effect on the outcome".

Since they do, it is necessary to optimize those variables that you DO have control over, and let the chips fall where they may.

I submit that as you perfect your skills, your winrate will increase (yay), but also your SD be lower, and tend not to vary so widely.

Oh, and the question, "What is the biggest possible downswing?" can only be answered by another question:
"How much money do you have?"

Great thought-provoking post,
Thanks for that...
--VS

That series on variance, is one of the video series I ever saw. For anyone who wants a very clear understanding of how variance works, I recommend that series