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TT - Should I bet river?

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ramadas
Joined: 02.09.2011

What is the probability, that he has flush? Should I bet the river?

Poker Stars $2.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 2028004
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $2.10 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 2.2, Hands: 5225
UTG+1: $1.28 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 6.0, Hands: 76
MP1: $1.61 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 1.5, Hands: 94
MP2: $0.56 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 33, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 6
CO: $2.07 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.5, Hands: 8
BTN: $2.00 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 10, 3B: 14, AF: 0.0, Hands: 10
SB: $2.05 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 14, 3B: 5, AF: 1.8, Hands: 147
BB: $2.00 - VPIP: 0, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 2

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG with T :heart: T :spade:
Hero raises to $0.08, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.08, 5 folds

Flop: ($0.19) 7 :heart: 5 :diamond: 4 :heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.18, MP1 calls $0.18

Turn: ($0.55) 4 :diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.52, MP1 calls $0.52

River: ($1.59) 2 :diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks

Final Pot: $1.59
Hero shows T :heart: T :spade:
MP1 mucks 6 :spade: 5 :spade:
Hero wins $1.53
(Rake: $0.06)


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Hi Ramadas,

Preflop: looks good

Flop: I like our big bet.

Turn: Big bet is good to get value/protect.

River: Considering we have about only 0.83 left I would put him all in. There's no way he folds 7x, 88, 99, 66, 5x for 1/2 pot bet.

And the chance for him to have a backdoor flush is smaller because certain diamond hands fold the flop.

If you want to know exactly, compared to his overall range, simply plug this hand into equilab and assign a range to villain. Then you will see how often he has a flush.


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