Beautiful post! ![:]](https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/uploads/wpforo/emoticons/pokerstrategy-legacy/basics/pleased.gif ":]")
I am reading this carefully now. Lets, as you say, not argue over variable variable names. But we can still discuss them. Percentages are not good to have in the formulas (or the names). This would require numerical factors of 0.01 and 100 for the formulas to be correct. Probabilities are better.
The first term in your formula is clear. Our net win in this scenario (he folds) is exactly what you say. This assumes that you put the baseline at our stack before the decision to shove.
The other two scenarios must then also be calculated as net results w r t the same baseline. We either stand to win net the current pot (including his last raise) plus the amount he is forced to call with if we push (say 100 000 in the pot + 300 000, which equals our remaining stack, totally 400 000). Or, we stand to lose our remaining stack (still 300 000). This is all with respect to our baseline.
The probability of winning, net from the baseline, 400 000 is 0.4.
The probability of losing, net from the baseline, 300 000 is 1 - 0.4 = 0.6.
Final cEv = 0.32 * 100000 (fold equity) + 0.68*0.4*400 000(we win) - 0.68*0.6*300 000(we lose) = 32 000 + 108 800 - 122 400 = 140 800 - 122 400 = 18 400.
(As a minor corollary, we should shove.)
When he calls, we expect to make 0.4 * 660000 = 264000 from just winning the pot.
This is where I believe that you go wrong. This number is the expected stack if he calls. If my guess is correct, you mix apples and pears in your formula.
/Johan
