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plo50, rivered FH facing pot donk by fish

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Skodljivec
Joined: 17.12.2011

villain is 95/20/0 over 50 hands, so a huge fish. However, he doesn't seem that agressive... Raise or call otr?

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

UTG: $60.45 (120.9 bb)
Hero (MP): $75.57 (151.1 bb)
CO: $55.43 (110.9 bb)
BTN: $14.25 (28.5 bb)
SB: $192.81 (385.6 bb)
BB: $96.24 (192.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 7 9 J A
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.75, CO folds, BTN calls $1.75, SB folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($5.50) 7 6 2 (3 players)
BB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, BTN folds

Turn: ($6.50) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero raises to $8, BB calls $7

River: ($22.50) 9 (2 players)
BB bets $21.49, Hero???


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4 replies
RuiBouquet
Joined: 21.03.2008

Easy raise imo. Once you raised the turn and he called the chances of him showing 99 are quite less!


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Ribbo
Joined: 25.06.2010

Looks like a chop to me. If you raise here I don't understand how anyone can call without 97. A more obvious 97 has never been seen if you raise here and given how passive the guy is what else could he have?

It's possible he is spewing with a straight or flush, but if you raise he can't call there.

This situation is nothing to do about the chances of villain having 99. What it's about is the chances that villain has worse than 97 and pays off against the chances that villain has 99 plus the relative win/loss of both scenarios.

My only worry would be that if villain has 97 and we minraise to try and get a worse hand to pay off, he is probably shoving it, and we can't fold to a shove so if you do raise you have to treat it as a shove.

His range is heavily weighted towards 97/99 and spew. If he had any other full house he would jam the turn so I just don't see the value in a river raise.


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Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Quite often those VPIP 95 guys overvalue their low fullhouses too much. I have seen them raise-calling rivers with bottom fullhouses. I would shove here, and think that opponent can't fold his 72/76/66 hands that often as it's just over $40 to pay into pot of $150. He donked the flop and turn, so he has something. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he had 76/66/22 that he "slowplayed".

Any thinking player couldn't call without 99/97, but VPIP 95 guy who makes those mindonks and 2x mindonks isn't really a thinking player.


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Ribbo
Joined: 25.06.2010

It's more likely he is donking the flop and turn because he has a massive draw.

Something like 9985 or T998 with an outside straight flush draw I reckon. :f_biggrin:


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