Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $600(BB) Replayer
SB ($2,210)
Hero ($1,270)
CO ($11,260)
BTN ($5,260)
Dealt to Hero 4♦ 7♥
fold, BTN raises to $5,260 (AI), fold, Hero calls $670 (AI)
here's Nash for this hand
do you somehow account for our rather horrible siuation if we fold this one and make a -EV call?
if we call here with a hand outside of our Nash calling range we're gonna have ~32% equity (assuming our oponent plays Nash, he's a reg) in a pot of 4.73bb, so on average we've got a stack of ~1.51bb after our call (in fact either we're busto ootm or we have a nice stack of 4.73bb). (Even if we call with 32o we have 29.54% equity --> 1.4bb on average)
If we fold here, assuming that there is no shove before we act next hand we have to push ATC vs a massive chip leader calling ATC, so we're gonna have 50% equity in a pot of 2.24bb, so on average we have 1.12bb after the next hand (in fact either we're busto ootm or we're still the shorty with only 2.24bb) - to me possible outcomes of this scenario look much worse than those of the former one.
When ive checked the equity needed for a call in this hand in the ICM Explorer it shows 35.66% but im still not convinced tbh, it just seems so counterintuitive. Am i missing sth importatnt or is that a spot for a super easy -EV call?
edit:
hand a bit similar, (i dont ask for a classic eval on this one so i dont want to create a seperate thread for it, i just post it here for comparision purposes)
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $800(BB) Replayer
SB ($7,315)
Hero ($1,630)
CO ($4,765)
BTN ($6,290)
BTN antes $25
SB antes $25
CO antes $25
Hero antes $25
Dealt to Hero 7♥ 4♣
fold, BTN raises to $1,600, fold, Hero calls $800
and here's Nash for it
it looks like now we can call muuuuuch wider even though BU is pushing only half of the range from the first hand. the only big difference between those two hands that i see is the fact that in the first one there is another plr kinda short (although with a stack almost twice as big as ours!) but how can it make such a massive difference in Nash ranges if it's gonna be us who blinds out first anyway (unless the blinds increase in the meantime but Nash obv doesn't take that into consideration). I really have no idea how to interpret those. pls help 
