[SH] NL50 Q3s 3barrel bluff

Pre ok, until he starts to adjust. It's a check/fold on the flop tho. He has quite a strong range, as he fold a lot preflop, and he doesn't really fold to cbets. Your profit is coming from stealing his BB. After he called, and you missed, check/fold oop. If you ended up cbetting, then check/fold turn. You get only a little equity against his range. Don't like river bet either, his range is Tx, FD, maybe sometimes 77-99 that could fold, but thats not too much.

Hi duder1n0,

PREFLOP
Fine.

FLOP
I have to agree with DarkAwi - flop cbet is not super profitable.

If your cbet is only 50% then it would be slightly profitable or BE, but with vs 2/3 PSB the villain defends enough for your bet to be -EV.

TURN
Villain folds more to turn cbets (from a small sample) and with your bet you could expect to fold out hands that you beat but which still have equity vs you (overcards, gutshots etc.).

RIVER
I don't like this bet as you won't fold better hands besides 6x (unless your image is nitty). However, it's true that villain's range is weak. So I'm not sure about this bet. Given that your SB OR range is super wide I think you'll end up bluffing too often in this spot.

Cheers,
David

hi,

great topic.

Although I think that as played turn bet is close since he can easily float with 2 overs and if he wants to fold a weaker pp he will likely do it on the turn. I see no reason betting the river cuz ppl loves to bluffcath bvb and it's a total blank.

Hi,

SB vs BB he is likely going to call you down especially getting that good pot odds. If you want to fold T or 6x then overbet river 22$. Very few people are willing to herocall that spot- I would prefer checking with showdown value, since there are not too many better hands that would fold. Also if he floated with overcard, he can turn weak showdown value hands into bluffs and raise that river card

best regards,