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Nl100 ATo 2pair river decision

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boomslang31
Joined: 01.04.2012

PKR, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (MP): $100 (100 bb)
CO: $48.64 (48.6 bb)
BTN: $127.26 (127.3 bb)
SB: $108.89 (108.9 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)

Villain reg. stats: 10K hand. Btn 3bet 7.8/ Btn coldcall 16/ FvFCB 45/ FvTCB 29/ FvRCB 36/ Raise rivercb 50(6)/ WWSF 50/

Preflop: Hero is MP with T A
Hero raises to $3, CO folds, BTN calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50) A T K (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN calls $5

Turn: ($17.50) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $12, BTN calls $12

River: ($41.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $27.66, BTN raises to $107.26 and is all-in, Hero calls $52.34 and is all-in

The runout is not good for him to bluff on this river ever, so i dont think a good reg would raise allin here with worse than my hand.
Now i think i should fold maybe every 2 pairs on the river and worse, and call with sets(TT, KK, AA) and with the nuts (JQ).
What do you think?

Results:

Spoiler

$201.50 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: A T K 5 7
Hero showed T A and lost (-$100 net)
BTN showed J Q and won $198.50 ($98.50 net)


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2 replies
mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Hi

Please provide the basic stats VPIP PFR 3bet. This gives us a good summary on his basic player type.

If he's really so full of it on the River, then I think you have to call here. Vs other more passive types, this is probably a fold cos people don't do this with busted FDs most of the time and they almost always have the straight. That's only like 4 combos though, assuming they don't flat QJo here.


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boomslang31 Topic starter
boomslang31
Joined: 01.04.2012

Sorry. Villain is 24/19/6.8 vpip/pfr/3b

I will have to call 47% of the time in order to not make his bluffs profitable here if he's got any.

I will get to this river with 35 combos(dead cards out): AA-KK,TT,AKo,ATo,AKs,ATs,A5s,QJs (with AQ,AJ i think i'd rather x/c river)

I'll have to defend at least 47% of this range which is ~17combos. If I fold ATs, ATo, KTs, A5s, I still call with 22 combos which is more than enough.

Since I am percieved to do this line with a very strong range(I would give up my bluffs on this river), i think he wouldn't bluff much here, and his value raise range is pretty much beats me everytime in this specific situation, so I would rather fold 2pairs except AK.
Is my thinking ok? If not let me know, i need to develop


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