Check my Maths time

12.10.2013, 10:57 0

Before I start i want to apologise to VorpalF2F as you helped me alot but I my tiny brain can't understand those complicated maths

Assumption 1: All MSS have a go broke range of AQ+, 99+

Assumption 2: All MSS have to go broke after he/she 4bets

Case 1:

Spoiler

Lets say MSS open for 3BB and I 3bet to 9 BB

Thus the Maths behind this will be:

9BB to win 13.5BB (His Bet + My Bet + Blinds)

9BB / 13.5BB = 66% I have to be successful to break even

Case 2:

Spoiler

Villain decide to 4bet 18BB (which technically put him all in)

Thus the Maths:

31BB to win 81.5BB (His Stack + My Stack + Blinds)

31BB / 81.5BB = 38% EV

This means If my Hand has minimum of 38% EV vs his Range, I have to call to break even in a long run (without calculating the rake)

Thus if I 3bet with AJ, I can have fold because vs his go broke range, I only have 30% Equity

Case 3 (same as Case 2 but with rake involved):

Spoiler

Villain decide to 4bet 18BB (which technically put him all in)

Thus the Maths:

31BB to win 77.5BB (His Stack + My Stack + Blinds - Rake of 4 BB)

31BB / 77.5BB = 40% EV

This means If my Hand has minimum of 40% EV vs his Range, I have to call to break even in a long run.

Thus if I 3bet with AQ, I have to fold it because AQ vs his go broke range, I only have 36% Equity

Thank you for your time.

Are my equation correct?

And thus in the future with AQ,AJ I have to fold since I have such bad Equity

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4 replies

VorpalF2F

Super Moderator

Joined: 02.09.2010

Posts: 45,056

12.10.2013, 17:37 0

I had a quick look, but I won't have the time to go over in detail until Monday.

Perhaps one of the other members can have a look.

In the meantime, have a look at this article:
http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/bss/1725/

I think that it has the explanations you need.

Best of luck,
--VS

Bizarre hand? Post it in Hand of the Day!!
Mind Games: My blog
As in life, so in a game of hazard, skill will make something of the worst of throws from Moonfleet by JM Falkner

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lnternet

Joined: 19.06.2012

Posts: 334

15.10.2013, 04:15 0

it's all correct as far as I can tell

In Case 3, you should account for rakeback as well when you account for rake, as 4bb is 5% uncapped, and when there is this much rake you better get some back ♦

If you can't stack off AJ/AQ you should probably just call the open raise.

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_Anonymous_

15.10.2013, 12:00 0

Internet Sir,

But i was once told by some coach that unless the Regs or MSS has at least 15% open, it is better just to fold with AJ.

Thats why i rather turn AJ into a so called "bluff"

Do you agree with me to turn AJ into a bluff??

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lnternet

Joined: 19.06.2012

Posts: 334

25.10.2013, 21:20 0

The 15% is a bit arbitrary, but the idea is good, if the range is too tight you can't call. But if you can't call the open then you surely can never ever call the 4bet!

If you can cold call depends how many people are behind (because getting squeezed is very bad for the EV of calling) as well as your position (IP better than OOP) and blinds (cheaper call is better)

Against 15% UT range I would
fold MP (too weak for call or 3bet)
3bet CO (too weak to call)
call BT (just strong enough to call)
fold SB (too weak)
call BB (good odds, always call BB)

(not saying this is 100% perfect, just to get the idea across)

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