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AJ how to make a logical decision

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RandomGenerator
Joined: 27.11.2010

Hi, I was going through hands in my session and realized that I don't have a solid background for making decisions.

Here's the hand.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $105.96 (106 bb)
SB: $100 (100 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $115.80 (115.8 bb)
Hero (MP): $49.52 (49.5 bb)
CO: $49.22 (49.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A J
UTG raises to $2, Hero raises to $5, 4 folds, UTG calls $3

Flop: ($11.50) 7 4 J (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $4.39, UTG raises to $11, Hero calls ?

So we got raised on flop and must make a decision whether to continue with the hand or to fold. Say we know for sure that we have 40% equity vs Villain's range. Then there's no question. We may ship it right away or call and ship a lot of turns. Mostly non-heart turns.

But seriously, even though I have TPTK here I'm not sure that I will have 40% vs villain's xRaising range. For example, vs AA,JJ,77,44 I have 3,67%.

Vs JJ,77,44,AsAc,Th9h,Th8h,9h8h we have 16%, which is also very low.

So it looks like versus some villains fold isn't that bad isn't it?

Okay. here's my question. If I'm writing a poker bot, how will it make a decision in this situation? I'm asking that because I realized that I make most decisions intuitively and not logically. Machine doesn't have intuition, so logically. How do I decide whether to continue with this hand or not?


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2 replies

Hello,

Basically, in my opinion, poker bots are being written according to millions of hand sample, and they evaluate with what range would people stack off here.
Also, they might take under consideration stats.

Overall, with TPTK I don't think this is a board where we can fold because we are only beat by 77/44 and JJ+ will most likely 4bet preflop. Also J7/74/J4 are not likely.
To me the question is here whether to stack off on flop or call and call turn. This of course will be best taken if we had any information, so against unknown I think just going broke and saving ourselves some tough decisions.

Best,
Plamen


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RandomGenerator Topic starter
RandomGenerator
Joined: 27.11.2010

Overall, with TPTK I don't think this is a board where we can fold because we are only beat by 77/44 and JJ+ will most likely 4bet preflop. Also J7/74/J4 are not likely.

this is all true, but how do you determine whether opponent has any other hands in checkraising range?

I mean, in this hand the guy was opening about 27% from this position and folding about 45%. His checkraise was 12% and wwsf is 45.

Don't you think that such a villain might have very little amount of bluffs on such board and we may fold?


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