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nl5 QQ Top set vs completed FD on river

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tommygecko
Joined: 11.08.2012

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BTN): $10.93 (218.6 bb)
SB: $5 (100 bb)
BB: $9.31 (186.2 bb)
UTG: $9.37 (187.4 bb)
MP: $4.93 (98.6 bb)
CO: $1.15 (23 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q Q
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.10, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.35, SB folds, BB calls $0.30, MP calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.07) Q 3 K (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $0.75, BB calls $0.75, MP folds

Turn: ($2.57) 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.55, BB calls $1.55

River: ($5.67) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Villain is a nitty TAG 16/12 over 386 hands.

Is there any value on this river? I'd expect him to raise sets/ two pairs on the flop (which are really very few combos anyway since he is tight and I have QQ). I feel his range contains mostly FDs. And i doubt he calls a 3rd barrel with Kx hands and even then it's not a significant part of his range for me to get value out of, IMO.


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w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Hey Tommygecko,

Preflop 3b vs min-raise from MP is fine.

Flop cbet for value is standard.

Turn cbet for value is fine.

There is likely a thin value bet on river here, but we can't be more than around $1.80 (we need to ensure Kx calls as mentioned). I don't think we miss a huge amount of value by checking - but keep in mind that a lot of villain just lead their rivered flushes OOP.


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