NL100 AQ Speed

I would say villain never takes this line with worse or with a draw. Because I would assume if he has like KJ/AK or FD he would just make a Cbet.

If he has something like JJ he might check/call or bet/fold.

If he has better like AA/KK I could see him play like this.

But I don't know the history between you and villain. And if villain is capable of making weird moves ( You have seen him do something non-standard in a previous hand ) then you might be ahead.

Folding seems to weak. Raising would imo be overplaying the hand because i'm not THAT scared of turn cards and would only isolate us against better hands.

1) Against a non-standard capable of doing weird things player : Shove flop or call flop + shove turn

2) Against a standard reg: Call flop and fold turn to a turnbet

Villain's cbet is low and c/raise is really high, so i'm expecting a c/raise a fair bit on this flop. I would jam flop, since this guy looks like a type to not bluff turn if his c/raise gets called.

Originally posted by Shevtshenko
Villain's cbet is low and c/raise is really high, so i'm expecting a c/raise a fair bit on this flop. I would jam flop, since this guy looks like a type to not bluff turn if his c/raise gets called.

Why are we looking at the c/r stat here? We need to know the skip c-bet & r/c/f
We don't have these stats, but they're pretty unreliable anyway, so we shouldn't draw conclusions from that until the sample is very large. If villain smashes the flop there's good reason to think that he might ch/r instead of c-bet, because the texture looks like it might get attacked by the defender if checked to. His range seems strong because it makes no sense that it should be weak, so we should expect it to be strong more often than not.

I think value jamming may be +EV, but the reasoning I don't like at all. We should look at all possible ranges and not put villain on whatever hands we want to. Do we have any reason to suspect villain to play a weak FD this way? Why wouldn't he just c-bet? Then again, if we think a lot of FD's could play this way, why would we shove? Do we think many players will stack off with 97dd?

The most crucial hand that villain needs in his range is KQo. Without it our EV goes way down and we need to be careful not to shove every good looking hand. Villain's 3-bet stat is pretty low from the BB, I see him hit that board quite hard.

I'd call flop. On the turn I'd shove 2-8, T, Q, A and fold diamonds, 9, J, K. We might be able to shove the 9 or fold the 8, but I'd draw the line somewhere so that's what I came up with.

Originally posted by Shevtshenko
Villain's cbet is low and c/raise is really high, so i'm expecting a c/raise a fair bit on this flop. I would jam flop, since this guy looks like a type to not bluff turn if his c/raise gets called.

He has 14 better combos TT, QQ+, AdQd.
With 7% range, he cant have > 14 fd that call shove. Most of his fd combos are having > 9 outs so we really dont have value in shove vs such range. We would need him to raise/call with all KQ combos to make it just thin value raise.

I think that it is the best to call raise given great pot odds, and considering he gives up his bluffs on turn we can fold vs bet if we think he doesnt bluff and doesnt bet enough KQ combos, but likely it is call turn on blank.

Also his cbet stat in 3bet pot is only 9 samples, and check raise 24% isnt wide because his preflop range is strong.

Hey guys,

Imo, villain looks the kind of type that can have c/raise/folds in his c/ring range. If he's not going to bluff the turn with those, you are giving him free chance to bink the turn. For example, if he chooses to play AdKs this way, the turn is a J or a diamond, he's going to win with a hand that would just fold to a jam. And if the turn is a 4, he'll c/fold and you don't make any more money from that. Also, if villain is c/r/folding 9d7d, all the more fold equity for the push. He has a lot of equity vs AQ and if I can somehow get him to not realize that equity after he puts in 30bbs, I'll certainly take that.

So yea, we might not have >50% against his value stack off range but we don't need that much, since there's so much $$ in the pot.

Ok, the purpose of your raise as I understood is more protection than that you really want to get called ?

By the way, how do you know that he is giving up a lot on the turn? As I saw from his stats, we have in 3bet pots only 9 samples for cbet, where he did cbet 3/9 times. We dont have stat provided how much he folds when he checks which is crucial here imo.

By the way, how do you know that he is giving up a lot on the turn?

Low turn AFq. High c/r indicates he is likely c/ring in 3bp as well.