KJ in 3bet pot blindwar vs unknown

We were talking about a turn c-bet range ( 31% bluffs vs 16% bluffs) not a flop range (tho 48% there is also too much IMO), and on this board 31% is too much, I have shown that even QJ has a profitable call, which means SB is overbluffing, because these hands should be dumped if SB bluffs with a correct frequency

Even K8 (which should be folded otherwise) has a call on most rivers

You can ofc donk x your bluffs on the river to bluff 13% instead of 30% but then when you x CO knows that you have nothing but a bluff,and that is the most readable move that you can make.
And CO doesnt even have to do anything special with K8 its enough that he folds or x-s it as usual, its EV increases anyway, because on the turn it gains twice as much % from the pot than it should ( 30% vs 15% ), and this is also true for every hand in his range, the EV of for ex. KK increases the same way.

And I dont use an incorrect model, because I dont use any model. IMHO there is no such thing a 'correct model' for bluffing, that tells you need to bluff X percent on every turn for example, because there is no uniform number for bluffing% on a street,because every board is individual and different from the others. Instead of looking on X as a constant I consider it as a variable.

Originally posted by Boomer2k10
Just becasue you're not a fan of the model doesn't mean you should use an incorrect one

Single street values for bluffing will not be correct under this circumstance. It's easy enough to disprove the theory by simply looking at flop play. According to 1-street theory you should only bluff the flop in a 3 bet pot about 12.5% of the time (your opponent is getting 7-1 to call minimum) which I'm pretty sure you can see isn't correct given that even in absolute worst case scenario (i.e. single raised pot where the board is something like 3 low-straight cards and 2-flush) a bot will c-bet the flop with at least 75% frequency and you simply don't hit the flop that often. Also it won't allow you to bluff at the correct frequency on the turn because your betting range doesn't have enough bluffs in it now.

Given we're talking our turn raising range here and not betting range the maths does change and we bluff a bit less (our opponent's getting better odds and it costs more to raise so in a 10BB pot probably looking at about 20% bluffs for raising to be spot on but this can change with board texture and opponent type)

Also given your example of certain cards crushing our range, that's why you have to adjust your range for future card distribution, which I've definitely gone over before. If you look at your bluffing range and see that it always hits a certain selection of cards and never hits others then your bluffing range is unbalanced even if it's at the correct frequency (it's why you'll see GTO-style players and bots bluff raise with K-High and Q-High on the turn where it often wouldn't appear to make much sense)

However the fine points of GTO play are probably unnecesary for the hand as these sorts of boards and pots tend to be where players are most unbalanced.

I quote the post in order to be able to read it. For some reason, the text extends a couple of miles to the right.