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NL400 KK river valuebet after board pairs a T

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fuzzyfish
Joined: 12.01.2010
PokerStrategist

Villain is a competent regular, we have some aggressive dynamics of 3betting and playing back. His EP open stat is around 15%. On the river I think its a pretty thin spot, but then again he could put me on barrels and call light (99, JJ-QQ). After he shoves my call is pretty marginal, but the odds, the odds... Besides, I don't see him having Tx there often (open EP and call 3bet).

So... would you valuebet river, and as played, would you call a shove?

$2/$4 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP: $509.60 (127.4 bb)
CO: $278.79 (69.7 bb)
Hero (BTN): $586.79 (146.7 bb)
SB: $574.01 (143.5 bb)
BB: $398 (99.5 bb)
UTG: $637.24 (159.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K K
UTG raises to $12, 2 folds, Hero raises to $36, 2 folds, UTG calls $24

Flop: ($78) T 4 8 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $53, UTG calls $53

Turn: ($184) 5 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $122, UTG calls $122

River: ($428) T (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $212.50, UTG raises to $426.24 and is all-in, Hero calls $163.29 and is all-in


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w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009
PokerStrategist

Hey Fuzzyfish,

It's hard to see villain having too many Tx in his range. He can have TT/88/44 though.

I think we are pretty crushed by his value range here - it just becomes a question of whether he's every bluffing frequently enough. Tbh, I doubt it, especially given that the x/r is less than a min-raise. Just because you guys have an aggressive preflop dynamic doesn't mean he's going to x/r bluff vs a 3barrel.

Ironically the fact we get such great odds may work against us here. Does villain really expect us to fold anything....


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