Originally posted by Anykey444
But 40% ITM is still positive with 7% ROI I guess.
Definitely no get-rich quick scheme.
Miracle on 2nd street
From the "be careful what you wish for" department.
5-Card Draw
I frequently see players raising >30$ of hands from the BTN and SB, and some even >50%
Today's tale of Whoa! features a player playing 63/11, with >50% steal pct.
In the first hand, he limps from the button, then 3Bets post draw.
Spoiler
Feral Cow Poker Hand Converter
PokerStars Limit 5 Card Draw $0.10/$0.20 - 5 players
SB: $5.16 (Hero)
BB: $2.50
UTG: $0.61
CO: $0.27
Button: $4.01
Dealing Hands: ($0.15) 4♦ K♥ K♠ 8♠ 3♥ (5 players)
2 folds, Button calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.20, BB folds, Button calls $0.10
First Draw: ($0.50) (2 players)
Hero discards 3, Button discards 3,
K♥ K♠ || K♣ 8♣ Q♠
Hero bets $0.20, Button raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.20
Hero showed K♣ K♥ K♠ 8♣ Q♠, three of a kind, Kings
Button showed 7♣ 4♣ 7♥ 7♦ 2♣, three of a kind, Sevens
Hero won $1.24
(Rake: $0.06)
His problem (I think) is that he is betting on drawing to low-quality hands. Even if you hit, you may well end up with a low-quality hand.
Is anyone is wondering why I just called the post-draw raise?
♦ I wanted to see what he had
♦ Unless he has something that beats me, it seemed unlikely he would call.
(you'll see later how wrong I was)
The astute among you will recognize one of my favourite whinges in reverse -- I'm suitably chastised.
In the 2nd hand, he draws 3 and caps post draw:
Spoiler
Feral Cow Poker Hand Converter
PokerStars Limit 5 Card Draw $0.10/$0.20 - 6 players
UTG+1: $4.04 (Hero)
CO: $2.25
Button: $1.06
SB: $0.87
BB: $4.64
UTG: $1.14
Dealing Hands: ($0.15) Q♠ Q♣ Q♥ 4♦ 4♠ (6 players)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.20, 3 folds, BB calls $0.10
First Draw: ($0.45) (2 players)
BB discards 3, Hero stands,
Q♠ Q♣ Q♥ 4♦ 4♠
BB bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.40, BB raises to $0.60, Hero raises to $0.80, BB calls $0.20
Hero showed Q♠ Q♣ Q♥ 4♦ 4♠, a full house, Queens full of Fours
BB showed 2♦ Q♦ 6♦ K♦ J♦, a flush, King high
Hero won $1.96
(Rake: $0.09)
The odds of hitting a flush drawing 3 are nearly 100:1 against. He hit it. Poor bugger must have thought he'd died and gone to heaven. Not so fast my worthy friend.
Was he *trying* for a flush? Let's give him credit for a little (very little) sense.
We'll assume he had K:d J:d pre-draw.
He is BB so has to pay $0.10 into a pot of $0.35 -- 3.5:1 pot odds.
So I went to my handy-dandy table of drawing odds to find out what the odds are of hitting a pair or better drawing to two different cards.
I had never calculated such a thing.
It turns out that the odds of getting at least 1 pair are 2:1 for a 3.5:1 payout.
Crazy like a fox.
However, in this *particular* situation, his hand is ALWAYS a fold pre, since the very best he is likely to hit is KK, which is the very bottom of the UTG open raise range.
What about unlikely?
Two pair holding two different cards? 22:1
Trips, straights, boats and quads are all worse of course.
So be careful what you wish for -- you may get it when villain has better.
But hey, I needed the money, and he was kind enough to reload.
Life is good that way sometimes...
Peace,
--VS