Mind Games

5-Card Draw

Oooooo, I HATE HANDS LIKE THIS.
IMO they are the absolute toughest of 5-Card Draw hands to play 3-way

The questions are:
1:d  If either villain bets, do I call as a bluff-catcher?
2:d  If I bet post-draw, do I call a check/raise?

A clash of expectations.
I *expect* UTG to be limping a decent pair. KKxxx or AAxxx
His vpip/pfr are not excessive -- around 28/20 I don't have limp stats by position
When BB calls my raise, he is getting 5.5:1
He is even more loose, and he should know I'm not pissing in the wind here -- I play around 20/18 so I have something I can raise over UTG.
BB is also trappy.
I *expect* he also has KKxxx or AAxxx

The odds of either of them getting 2pr or better drawing 3 is 2.7:1
Thus the chance of 1 of them missing is 73%, so the odds of BOTH of them missing is 0.73 squared or 54% -- so I figure here that if either of them hit even 2 pair, I'm beat. No better hand will fold, so I check behind.

My last thought:
I'm glad I'm not the poor bugger w/ the trip jacks!

Peace,
--VS

YESA

Originally posted by amatorPOLSKA
YESA

Hi,
I'm guessing you mean
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=yesa

In any case, thanks for stopping by!
--VS

5-Card Draw
There were two tables of FL $1/$2 going yesterday.

I analysed the stats of all the players over 1579 hands
The biggest winner won a very respectable $37.03 over 451 hands -- 4.11 BB/100
The biggest loser lost $54 in 225 hands.

There were 28 net winners, 33 losers.
The rake was $192.10

Wow.

The purpose of all this was to see how my stats compared to the big losers and winners.
[ ] Adequate sample size.
The big winner had a vpip/pf4/3Bet of 30/14/1.3
Steal % a mere 22%
Saw draw 23%, but saw showdown only 17%

These numbers are very similar to mine at this limit -- except I'm VP'ing onto the pot only about 21%. Another difference is that I folded to 3Bet pre-draw 13% of the time -- he never did.

His "won money at showdown" is less than 50%, mine is just over 55%

ALL of the >=40 vpip players lost -- and big as a group they lost of 106 of the $563 lost.
A lone player in this group won $1.72 over 25 hands.
Players playing 30 - 40 vpip won slightly, 7 losers and 5 winners combined to win $4
In the 25-30 group, losers outnumbered winners, 6:5, but their losses totalled 107 compared to the winners winning a mere 37 between them.
In the 20-25 group, winners outnumbered losers, 9:8, but only won 134, whereas the losers lost 139
The nits playing < 20 had 7 winners winning $103 and 4 losers who lost only 58

Did I learn anything?
I can't really say -- I think though, that I'm not too wild, nor too nitty.

I did notice one thing though:
I won with a fairly good rate when I had people on my left who fold their blinds a lot, together with people on my right who enter a lot of pots.

Under those conditions, my own vpip/pfr/3 goes to around 25/20/8, and my winrate to about 8 BB/100.

So for the rest of this month, I'll seek out such tables, and leave if the tables aren't acceptable -- even if it means not playing that session -- or playing a different game for a bit.

Cheers,
--VS

Hi, thanks for the investigation. Really I don't know what to comment, but still try as I am a poker scribbler

I don't think you should copy this best winner (in the end a couple of coolers would help a lot to be the best on such a distance), he limped a lot (Vpip 30+steal 22) and it's not so easy to be balanced using limps. Also it's possible. And you definitely should fold a lot to 3bet from opps with narrow 3bet range, so his zero fold is nonsense.

I think it would be interesting to analyze not one winner, but average stats from say best 5-10% of all opps.

I think it would be interesting to analyze not one winner, but average stats from say best 5-10% of all opps

I think sample size is a problem here.
our 30/14 friend is an example -- he may have just run good.
His pre-draw fold-to-3Bet is low because he so rarely bets, he is not going to be 3Bet often by thinking players.

The better limpers are limping some quality hands.
I see too many time BTN limps, I raise 2pr from blinds. He draws 2 and bets, I call, he has trips but no high card -- so he had the trips from the start. This seems wrong, but by doing so he wins a big bet, instead of a small bet.

I'll have a look at the average stats of the top 5 winners with sample size > 250 hands and for the fun of it, the worst 5 with similar sample size.

--VS

Is it hard just to put all stats for all players from this limit to Excel?
I make this sometimes from https://pokeit.co

Well that wasn't as hard as I thought it would be.

FL $1/$2 top 5 winners sample size >= 200 hands
            n     vpip      pfr      pf3      pf4     pff3    pff4    steals    saw_f    sawsd    wtsdwsf     wmsd    FlAFq       Net    BB/100  
  Min:    272    19.50    14.00     1.30        0        0       0     20.50    13.30    10.20      56.90    45.50    25.70     14.49      2.28  
  Max:    623    30.10    19.90    11.40    66.70    12.50       0     33.80    23.30    16.90      76.30    70.60    44.80     37.03      4.82  
  Avg:    389    24.84    17.28     6.34    22.50     2.50       0     26.22    18.66    12.48      67.26    55.76    32.18     25.71      3.41  

FL $1/$2 bottom 5 losers sample size >= 200 hands
            n     vpip      pfr      pf3      pf4     pff3    pff4    steals    saw_f    sawsd    wtsdwsf     wmsd    FlAFq       Net    BB/100  
  Min:    201    18.90     6.60        0        0        0       0      8.90    15.40     9.30      55.80    25.00    15.10    -31.34     -7.54  
  Max:    313    28.80    17.30     9.00        0        0       0     30.40    24.80    18.70      75.50    51.70    35.50    -20.85    -4.55  
  Avg:    239    23.40    12.30     3.75        0        0       0     19.45    19.00    13.10      67.70    41.03    25.53    -27.93     -5.98  

Conclusions:
♦  Sample size is too small. In a 600 hand session losing 3 set-over-set hands pretty much wipes out your earnings.
♦  Losers tend to be less aggressive -- but we knew that already

The query I used is modified from the playerStats query in SQL.py, if you have the fpdb source code.

The modified query:

 SELECT
       concat(upper(stats.limitType), ' '
             ,concat(upper(substring(stats.category,1,1)),substring(stats.category,2) ), ' '
             ,stats.name, ' $'
             ,cast(stats.bigBetDesc as char)
             )                                                      AS Game
      ,stats.pname
      ,stats.n
      ,stats.vpip
      ,stats.pfr
      ,stats.pf3
      ,stats.pf4
      ,stats.pff3
      ,stats.pff4
      ,stats.steals
      ,stats.saw_f
      ,stats.sawsd
      ,stats.wtsdwsf
      ,stats.wmsd
      ,stats.FlAFq
      ,stats.Net
      ,stats.Rake
      ,stats.BBper100
      ,stats.Profitperhand as "$/Hand"
 FROM
     (select /* stats from hudcache */
             gt.base
            ,gt.category
            ,upper(gt.limitType) as limitType
            ,s.name
            ,format(gt.bigBet/100,2)                                         AS bigBetDesc
            ,hc.gametypeId                                                  AS gtId
            ,p.name as pname
            ,sum(hands)                                                        AS n
            ,case when sum(street0VPIChance) = 0 then 0
                  else Round(100.0*sum(street0VPI)/sum(street0VPIChance),1)
             end                                                             AS vpip
            ,case when sum(street0AggrChance) = 0 then 0
                  else Round(100.0*sum(street0Aggr)/sum(street0AggrChance),1)
             end                                                             AS pfr
            ,case when sum(street0CalledRaiseChance) = 0 then 0
                  else Round(100.0*sum(street0CalledRaiseDone)/sum(street0CalledRaiseChance),1)
             end                                                             AS car0
            ,case when sum(street0_3Bchance) = 0 then 0
                  else Round(100.0*sum(street0_3Bdone)/sum(street0_3Bchance),1)
             end                                                             AS pf3
            ,case when sum(street0_4Bchance) = 0 then 0
                  else Round(100.0*sum(street0_4Bdone)/sum(street0_4Bchance),1)
             end                                                             AS pf4
            ,case when sum(street0_FoldTo3Bchance) = 0 then 0
                  else Round(100.0*sum(street0_FoldTo3Bdone)/sum(street0_FoldTo3Bchance),1)
             end                                                             AS pff3
            ,case when sum(street0_FoldTo4Bchance) = 0 then 0
                  else Round(100.0*sum(street0_FoldTo4Bdone)/sum(street0_FoldTo4Bchance),1)
             end                                                             AS pff4
            ,case when sum(raiseFirstInChance) = 0 then 0
                  else Round(100.0*sum(raisedFirstIn)/sum(raiseFirstInChance),1)
             end                                                             AS steals
            ,Round(100.0*sum(street1Seen)/sum(hands),1)                       AS saw_f
            ,Round(100.0*sum(sawShowdown)/sum(hands),1)                       AS sawsd
            ,case when sum(street1Seen) = 0 then 0
                  else Round(100.0*sum(sawShowdown)/sum(street1Seen),1)
             end                                                             AS wtsdwsf
            ,case when sum(sawShowdown) = 0 then 0
                  else Round(100.0*sum(wonAtSD)/sum(sawShowdown),1)
             end                                                             AS wmsd
            ,case when sum(street1Seen) = 0 then 0
                  else Round(100.0*sum(street1Aggr)/sum(street1Seen),1)
             end                                                             AS FlAFq
            ,Round(sum(totalProfit)/100.0,2)                               AS Net
            ,Round(sum(rake)/100.0,2)                               AS Rake
            ,Round((sum(totalProfit/(gt.bigBet+0.0))) / (sum(hands)/100.0),2)
                                                                             AS BBper100
            ,Round( (sum(totalProfit)/100.0) / sum(hands), 4)                 AS Profitperhand
            ,Round( sum(activeSeats*hands)/(sum(hands)+0.0), 2)                 AS AvgSeats
      from Gametypes gt
           inner join Sites s on s.Id = gt.siteId
           inner join HudCache hc on hc.gametypeId = gt.Id
           inner join players p on hc.playerId = p.id
      group by gt.base
           ,gt.category
           ,upper(gt.limitType)
           ,s.name
           ,gt.bigBet
           ,gtId
           ,p.name
     ) stats
 inner join
     ( select # profit from handsplayers/handsactions
              hprof.gtId, sum(hprof.profit) sum_profit,
              avg(hprof.profit/100.0) profitperhand,
              case when hprof.gtId = -1 then -999
                   else variance(hprof.profit/100.0)
              end as variance
             ,sqrt(variance(hprof.profit/100.0))                                                         AS stddev
       from
           (select hp.handId, h.gametypeId as gtId, hp.totalProfit as profit
            from HandsPlayers hp
            inner join Hands h        ON h.id            = hp.handId
            where hp.tourneysPlayersId IS NULL
            and   date_format(h.startTime, '%Y-%m-%d')
            group by hp.handId, gtId, hp.totalProfit
           ) hprof
       group by hprof.gtId
      ) hprof2
     on hprof2.gtId = stats.gtId
;

Edit: There was a doubled set of quotation marks in the query -- fixed
Modifications:
♦  parameters <xxxx> replaced by some actual values
♦  some items that refer to later streets removed
♦  column for rake added
♦  bigBlind replaced by bigBet throughout

Cheers,
--VS

I adjusted the query a bit, and applied it to my main database.
Data is only from 2014-01-01 on, and only looking at players with over 2000 hands

Some general tendencies begin to emerge:
Winners:
♦  Enter slightly fewer pots, but do so with a raise more often <= no surprise
♦  pre-draw 3Bet more AND fold to 3Bet more.
♦  Appear to 4Bet less pre-draw, and fold to 4Bet less <== sample size?
♦  Steal more <== I need to add the fold to steal and raise to steal stats in here
♦  See the draw much less.
♦  Get to showdown significantly less
♦  Win at showdown more <== well duh
♦  Are more aggressive

Things I would like to do:
♦  Add some post-draw stats besides aggression and showdown. Any suggestions?
♦  Test for positional awareness.

5-Card Draw all limits combined sample size >2000 win rate < 0 BB/100

                n     vpip      pfr      pf3      pf4     pff3     pff4    steals    saw_f    sawsd    wtsdwsf     wmsd    FlAFq       Net    BB/100
    Min:    2,284    16.50     7.20     1.60    14.30        0        0      8.70    15.20     9.50      57.70    43.90    12.30    -50.41     -3.94
    Max:    4,381    30.20    16.50     7.30    54.50     5.90    33.30     21.60    27.90    19.30      69.10    56.30    32.40     -1.43     -0.11
    Avg:    3,035    22.14    11.78     5.44    29.42     1.50    14.48     15.54    20.98    13.62      64.28    49.62    24.02    -22.73     -1.64

5-Card Draw all limits combined sample size >2000 win rate > 0 BB/100

                n     vpip      pfr      pf3      pf4     pff3     pff4    steals    saw_f    sawsd    wtsdwsf     wmsd    FlAFq       Net    BB/100
    Min:    2,145    18.80    15.50     5.70    10.70     7.30        0     21.30    15.30     8.70      54.40    49.70    23.00     11.22      0.86
    Max:    7,528    24.50    20.30    11.00    32.70    33.90    12.20     29.30    19.00    11.40      65.80    54.40    45.10     25.53      2.59
    Avg:    4,258    21.80    18.88     8.14    17.30    16.00     7.52     26.02    16.68    10.18      61.16    51.76    31.10     17.51      1.46

Players included in the above -- guess which one is me

                n     vpip      pfr      pf3      pf4     pff3     pff4    steals    saw_f    sawsd    wtsdwsf     wmsd    FlAFq       Net    BB/100
  on…nd:     2395     24.5     19.9      5.7     10.7     33.9     10.0      29.3     19.0     11.4       60.2     52.2     23.5     25.53      2.59
  Ep…10:     2145     22.1     20.0      7.2     11.5     14.8        0      28.6     16.0      8.7       54.4     49.7     45.1     18.70      2.04
  oo…na:     6380     18.8     15.5      6.7     14.4     12.2      8.3      21.3     15.3     10.0       65.8     54.4     23.0     11.22      0.93
  Fa…hi:     7528     21.1     18.7     11.0     17.2     11.8     12.2      24.4     16.8     10.7       63.5     50.9     31.4     17.85      0.86
  Mr…AA:     2842     22.5     20.3     10.1     32.7      7.3      7.1      26.5     16.3     10.1       61.9     51.6     32.5     14.27      0.86
  ma…41:     2727     19.4     16.4      6.1      8.2     17.8     20.0      24.9     15.0      9.8       64.9     60.2     20.0     19.91      0.73
  he…ro:    72059     19.9     16.4      5.6      9.8     23.7     25.4      24.0     17.7     11.2       63.5     49.8     32.2     52.24      0.51
  Jc…ll:     2599     22.5      7.3      1.5        0        0        0      10.2     22.3     14.2       63.6     55.3     18.3     -0.15      0.03
  no…if:     2432     22.3      8.3      1.6     19.2        0        0      10.9     23.0     15.0       65.5     56.3     12.3     -1.43     -0.11
  Sa…ys:     3142     19.3     16.5      7.2     26.7        0      9.1      21.6     16.7      9.6       57.7     48.2     32.4     -8.25     -0.42
  ha…21:     4381     16.5     14.0      7.3     14.3      1.6     13.3      18.7     15.2      9.5       62.7     50.0     21.8    -13.75     -0.67
  Se…oo:     2938     22.4      7.2      4.4     54.5        0     33.3       8.7     22.1     14.7       66.4     49.7     23.9    -39.82     -3.04
  ZO…26:     2284     30.2     12.9      6.7     32.4      5.9     16.7      17.8     27.9     19.3       69.1     43.9     29.7    -50.41     -3.94

Onward!
--VS

NLHE

I had my suckout shoes on tonight

I had written this guy off as a flake, and flakes call with crap.
Memo to self: Flakes can have good cards too.
OTF SB has 14¢ in the pot, and adds another 18¢, so he has 1/3 of his stack in the pot.
He's highly unlikely to just abandon it, so I forced the issue.

Ooops.

I just played a short session to try to dislodge 5-Card Draw from my brain for a bit.

Peace,
--VS

Hi, great job grats and thanks
ATM just 2 things:

>>Add some post-draw stats besides aggression and showdown. Any suggestions?
For sure "Fold flop" and ContB, also interesting CR and DB(R)

I think that it's better to have stats for players with less hands in DB (say 500-1000), but with something like winrate >XBB and <YBB (I don't know right figures for XY, may be 1-2). But current <>0 is not so distinct.
BTW - is rake included in winrate calculation?

I found a better query to build on.

I'll be running a set of queries just for steals, and I'll redo the earlier ones setting the min sample size to 500. I'll also add "Call a Raise" preflop stat, too. I don't know how it got left out. It is important, as I think that the higher win rate players fold marginal hands more and 3Bet stronger hands more. My prediction is that winners will call less than losers.

I might not get a chance to work on it for a few days, as I have to get ready for a wedding. No, not mine

--VS

5-Card Draw
I put some of my database research into action today.

In the past, that is a call. However, this player has low post-draw Agg freq of 22% (sm sample though), but was playing about 50/25 over 80 hands. You *know* he's calling with shite, but he definitely *can* hit -- and I didn't so I held up.

Not only that, but he is now trained to believe I can fold to aggression post-draw, so hopefully he'll try a bluff later on.

Oh, you mean like this?

Q:d  So why not raise post-draw?
A:d  I thought about it. But... He's not 3Betting pre- and drawing 3 with anything other than AA. I've seen none, so have no blockers. Since the previous hand, he has shown more aggression, and I don't want to call a cap with KKK. Besides, this way I get some info. Yeah, I know it's not very Vorpal of me, but...

Peace,
--VS

Originally posted by jbpatzer
Since Roo's so enthusiastic, I think we should restart The Zimmers. However, MisClick is stuck in a cleft between two steep rocks somewhere in the U.S.A. and will probably not be able to hack her own arm off in time to manage the club. Since she's the only one who can do this, we'll have to play somewhere else. Fortunately, I created the imaginatively named 'JB's Club' so that I could get my arse handed to me on a plate in last year's PS HU tournament. Let's play there.

Club ID number: 895115
Invitation Code: jbpatzer123

I reckon it's too ageist just to restrict it to old farts. Anyone can join but I reserve the right to throw you out if

(1) I don't like the cut of your jib,
(2) You check-raise me too often when I cbet 98% of my range,
(3) You're no fun.

Joining the club does not guarantee you entry to the Skype channel, because not everyone can cope with Roo asking what the rules of 2-7 single draw are for the 17th time.

We usually start three or four nanostakes MTTs in various games at about 8pm and play until Vorpal sucks out in the final HU pot.

Anybody up for 8pm this Thursday?

Originally posted by jbpatzer

We usually start three or four nanostakes MTTs in various games at about 8pm and play until Vorpal sucks out in the final HU pot.

Anybody up for 8pm this Thursday?

Hey, I like the sound of that...
I'm working at that hour, but will have a go at one of the tournaments at least.
I may have to sit out a hand or two to tend to some crisis or other...

--VS

Whilst catching up on your blog last night I noticed this

Cool truck

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
My truck -- "Truckle" with Mrs Vorpal and the oldest of the wee blades

Originally posted by roopopper
Whilst catching up on your blog last night I noticed this

Cool truck

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
My truck -- "Truckle" with Mrs Vorpal and the oldest of the wee blades

TYVM
That truck is the one thing I ever owned that hurt to part with.
A lot of memories tied up in that old beast.
It went to a good home, though.
A back-to-the-land type bought it with the intention of using it as a bush truck.

wp him.

Cheers,
--VS

Real Life
About this time a week ago, I was getting ready to attend the wedding of my nephew.
His dad was a great guy, and was really into cars. His pet ride was a lovely white '67 Malibu which he was always working on. "Playing Chevy" he called it. Playing Chevy was an activity usually accompanied by beer in quantity. In turn, we would play with my truck (see a few posts back).

The reason I mention this is that my brother-in-law passed away a few years ago, and left his Malibu to his two sons. Each gets "ownership" for a year, but they work on it together.

The wedding was held outdoors in front of an arch flanked by their cars. They signed the register on the hood of the Malibu. I don't cry at weddings, but I did get a bit chokey there.

5-Card Draw
I've applied a few things I learned from my database review of all players w/ decent win-rates. For the most part, my stats were about the average of winning players. I did notice though that I 3Bet quite a bit less, and fold to 3Bet quite a bit more than the players with higher win rates.

I had the good fortune to observe an FL $2/$4 table on Friday. While watching I saw one player was super aggressive, and playing well over 50% of hands. Just then a seat opened up to his left, and I sat down. A bit foolish in retrospect, as I don't generally do well vs this player type. However, he liked to call post-draw raises with weak hands, and add that to some run-good and I have now a new record bankroll to show for my efforts.

I wanted to post an example of his silliness, but they were all before I started playing, it seems -- all his hands recorded were played well -- I just won ♠_biggrin:

This is a close as I could come:

I'm pretty sure I would never cap post draw with a mere flush, but he may have known his opponent. In any case capping post draw w/ a straight is a wee bit on the insane side.

We did have this hand, but I can't fault his play at all, really...

I'd like to play these limits more, but I need to learn how to handle these highly-active super aggro types.

I lost a whack-and-a-half last December when I played my 5K hands of FL $1/$2 -- mostly vs such players. If you try to avoid them, you end up folding the best hand far too often to play profitably. If you try to engage them, they can blow you off pots when you don't have the odds to call.

Best of luck,
VS

@5 Card draw:
Maybe he was just a recreational player in general and hit a few hands? 'Hey, a flush is good, right?' Just a thought over small sample, you would know better.

@RL: You're really beginning to sound more like a redneck than a canuck, or are there rednecks up your way as well! 'They signed the register on the hood...' just about did it for me; that's funny! ♦

I hope no offence is taken by my comment btw, I am from stiff upper lip Britain after all. That sort of 'uncouth' behaviour would never be appropriate here except from the great unwashed.

Originally posted by gadget51
@5 Card draw:
Maybe he was just a recreational player in general and hit a few hands? 'Hey, a flush is good, right?' Just a thought over small sample, you would know better.

@RL: You're really beginning to sound more like a redneck than a canuck, or are there rednecks up your way as well! 'They signed the register on the hood...' just about did it for me; that's funny! ♦

I hope no offence is taken by my comment btw, I am from stiff upper lip Britain after all. That sort of 'uncouth' behaviour would never be appropriate here except from the great unwashed.

No offence taken -- the whole wedding was full of funny gags.
The Justice of the Peace kept referring to "Mawage", which I recognized as a reference to the marriage scene in The Princess Bride. Also, when she got to the part that goes, "If there be anyone here who knows just cause why these two should not be joined " she went "Shhhhhh" instead of the usual. The lovely couple set this all up of course.

When I first heard "Mawage" I was hoping she would say, "Have you the wing?" at that part but alas.

The Swordsman Clan is weird, I tell ya.

The groom is defo into cars and hunting and such, but no redneck. The bride on the other hand is totally new-age. Vegan, crystals, Celtic runes -- the whole nine yards. They've been together for years, so I'm assuming they have achieved harmony, or at least detente.

As for the 5-Card Draw fella -- after the table broke up, he was back at another one, and up about 30 big bets, so I'm guessing he knew what he was doing. Over the small sample, it is entirely likely that 50% of his hands were playable, but I did see him cap once pre-draw w/ AA -- and that seems a bit on the wild side...

Cheers,
VS