Mind Games

NLHE
As I mentioned, I've been concentrating on the river for a while.

Well, not quite like that, more like this:

To save you the trouble:

Board: 9♣7♥2♦ 5♠ T♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    34.52%  34.23%   0.30% { 22+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, ATo+, KJo+ }
MP3    65.48%  65.18%   0.30% { 88 }

Is his range OK?
In what way does his range narrow (if at all) on successive streets?
Is this enough equity for a river call?
How do you tell?

If you feel like a game of "guess villain's hand" feel free to offer a guess.

All the best,
VS

To say something we need more hands and more stats including postflop. As we don't, we should think he play normally, not as a maniac, who bet 3-barrel bluff every time with any hand not connected to the board. So normally it's a fold.
There is no busted draw on the river, even not probable T8 (due to your 88) hit TP on the river, so not so many bluffs. And normally he should check hands with showdown value that worse than 88 on the turn or the river.

I think preflop range is more or less OK, maybe he CB flop 100%, but not turn and river - his range narrows every street.

We tend to assign a'sensible' range when facing utg unknown, which in itself is sensible of course, but what range do we assign utg with a monster stack? I'm torn between the sensible in-yer-face value betting of an overpair and an AK or 89ss type hand that would really like you to fold please.

I'll go for 89ss just for the lolz.

Nice stack for utg by the way!

Yes, sample size definitely lacking here.
As the hand played out, I was thinking perhaps an overpair, perhaps a set, but his entire range includes a lot of overcards.

I also took his stack size into account -- playing like this can succeed at NL 2, so I hung in there.
No, I don't do this a lot -- not any more anyway but he couldn't have known that.
My W$SD is now well over 60% in the last several sessions.

As it turns out, he went all the way w/ A♣:Q♣:

tyvm, so noted.

Which leads us to the question:
How do you detect stuff like this?
How many times have any of us folded 3rd pair on a river bet?

There is a stat called "River Call Efficiency" that according to PT 4 is:
"Ratio of the total amount won on the river to the total amount called on the river. Money that is taken out of the pot as rake is not counted as money won."

So clearly this stat should be greater than 1, or you're losing money on the river.

Lifetime on this site it is 1.53
This year it is 1.64
This month 1.73
This week 2.03

So clearly paying attention to river play is paying off.
I need to do more work. I've been calling small river bets more, though, but only with decent showdown value.
I've also been checking back rivers I used to bet.
The result in both cases is I'm winning more on the river and losing less.

So my red line is no longer going up as much -- and my blue line isn't lolbad.

What clued me in to this was my comment earlier this month that I seemed to do much better after dropping a stack or two early in a session. So I tried to analyse what changed in my play after such a start.

So clearly it was a mental game thing, which after all is the subject of this entire blog...

May peace and contentment follow you all your days,[1]
VS

[1] Unless you're looking for wild and crazy excitement, of course

Well this one has nothing to do with the river, but it is rather interesting.

I would have much preferred a flush draw to go with my OESD, but it is what it is...

In this next one, I kinda felt sorry for villain. I put him on an overpair, TT-QQ (Kings not too likely).
Straight and flush draws possible, and even a made straight. But I'm not folding KK here, so may as well.
Oops...

OK, back to the river...
Here I decide to take a stab. All I have OTT is a draw, but the effective stack is 150 BB, so I have good implieds.
OTR I have squadoosh, so I make a biggish bet, intending to bet/fold, but I didn't need the fold part.

For the time I've been focusing on the river, I've played 2500 hands.
I've raised my W$SD to nearly 60%, but I still think I'm going to SD too often -- around 35%, but my VP/PFR is way down, so I have better hands, so maybe it makes sense.

I have a +ve winrate in all pos except BB, and my VP/PFR there is way low -- 16/4.

In hands where villain is content to check down, I might have to stab at some, but I'm not sure where.

5-Card Draw
I've played no 5-Card Draw for almost a week. Just taking a break.

Have a great weekend all,
VS

NLHE
I mentioned that I took a shot at NL 5 a few days ago. I did OK, but played NL 2 for a few days toward the end of last week.
Along the way, I was given a bonus of $5, that had to be cleared by Monday.

At the rate I play, it was not going to be possible at NL 2, but if I played another 1000 hands of NL 5 I figured I could do it.

The trick of course is to lose less than $5 in the course of earning $5.

So the graph is my 1000 hand shot at the bonus.

I surprised even myself.

And this playing 17/13

I discovered a few things:
When you have a big stack, they come gunnin' for ya -- like the wild west or something. So every time I hit a 200 BB stack, I left the table, and rejoined (I was playing fast-fold poker).

Also, I found that I could make use of scare cards post-draw more effectively by 3Betting from the blinds instead of just calling.
If they called the 3Bet (esp BvB) then Aces or Kings OTF were money in the bank, regardless of what I held (almost).

To cash that cheque, though, it required a fairly big CBet -- I was using about 70% pot size.
And fold to any really strenuous opposition.

'twas fun -- I hope to do it again sometime...
VS

I saw the Hunger Game Mockingjay Pt 1 tonight.
Lot of things I liked, some I didn't.

As always, it was a better movie because I had already read the book. So many movies now are just imagery for those who already know the plot details.

It has been such a long time since I've seen a decent original film.

Oh well...
VS

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
I saw the Hunger Game Mockingjay Pt 1 tonight.
Lot of things I liked, some I didn't.

As always, it was a better movie because I had already read the book. So many movies now are just imagery for those who already know the plot details.

It has been such a long time since I've seen a decent original film.

Oh well...
VS

What kind of movies are you into? Might be able to give a good recommend.

That movie has been getting mixed reviews, but mrsgadget has the other two Hunger Games ones and so I'll probs fork out for that one as well. I can always retire to my pc if it's as boring as one commentator said.

Damned nice job bonus clearing by the way V! ♠_thumbsup: Staying there or settling at nl2 still?

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
I saw the Hunger Game Mockingjay Pt 1 tonight.
Lot of things I liked, some I didn't.

As always, it was a better movie because I had already read the book. So many movies now are just imagery for those who already know the plot details.

It has been such a long time since I've seen a decent original film.

Oh well...
VS

Seen it as well. It was mediocre IMO. Obviously it was a big filler upper for Part 2!

Originally posted by CekamBoju
What kind of movies are you into? Might be able to give a good recommend.

Hi, CekamBoju
Thanks for stopping by!

It is easier to tell what films I *don't* like.
For example, I've grown to dread the huge battle scenes where the CG overwhelms the action. The timing in those is almost always off. Example: I loved Avatar even though it was all special effects, but really disliked the long drawn-out battle scene at the end.

Another one that suffered was the siege of Gondor in Lord of the Rings. The first couple of rocks took out entire towers. At that pace the city was rubble in 10 minutes, but the battle dragged on for several hours -- at least it seemed like it.

What I would like to see is a thought-provoking movie where I don't already know the plot.
Science fiction is good -- time travel is OK. Post apocalyptic is OK.

Things that are totally off-the-wall are good. I liked Pulp Fiction, for example. Only Tarentino film I have liked so far.

Before the show last night I was watching the trailers hoping for something I might like that is coming along. Nada.

It gets tough. Almost everything lately has been "based on a book" or a comic, or a fairy tale or a play.

Have all the stories been told?

Cheers,
VS

Hey,

From the more recent flicks I have seen, which have in a way fucked with my head and made me think I would say:

- Her - Joaquin Phoenix is phenomenal, as always. The movie explores the not so distant future, and the relationship of human and artificial life forms. Movie is visually stunning, strong performance by the lead. I think you might like it.
- Last Budapest Hotel - If you like visually strong movies, where the plot comes second to fantastic imagery, camera work and quirky dialogue, then you should think about watching Wes Anderson's The Last Budapest Hotel. It's a very strong movie in my opinion and one you can rewatch many times. If you are into more conventional types of films with clearly defined plot, structure etc. then you should probably stay away from Wes Anderson.
- Snowpiercer - Postapocalyptic plot where Earth has gone to a new ice age, almost all population died due to the weather experimentation, except for a train full of people who goes around the globe by perpetual motion engine. The train is an ecosystem of itself, with different social classes and differences and etc. The rebellion of the low class is about to start ♦ The movie is one of the year's favorites for me. Never got a wide release in cinemas, but it's awesome with lot of action, good plot, visually strong. Try it out.
- The Trip - It's a few years old but it doesn't matter since most of the people haven't seen it. Basically the plot is that 2 British comedians (Steve Coogan and Rob Brydon) are playing a fictionalized movie versions of themselves. They go on a trip through English countryside to visit nice restaurants and hotels and do their reviews. The plot is secondary to the dialogue which is FANTASTIC, had me laughing in tears. What makes it even more amazing is the fact that the whole movie is largely improvised on spot, with very little of the actual script. Recently the sequel was released, The Trip to Italy, which is just as good and funny. Try this one though first, if it's your cup of tea, then you have something to look forward to ♦

Anyway that's off the top of my head, let me know what ya think!

Wow -- thanks a lot!
I'll see if I can find the Trip to start with
Snowpiercer sounds a touch weird -- perpetual motion? But postapocalyptic is always good. One of the first international news stories I can remember was the Cuban Missile crisis of the early '60s. It was freaky sitting around listening to adults calmly discussing whether or not the US and the Russians would blow us all up. I was 10. My friends and I would play in the woods on the edge of town pretending we were the last survivors. Not that we would have survived long, since we had to be home by supper time.

Thanks again!
VS

We started watching Game of Thrones a few nights ago -- starting with Season 1 Episode 1.
It is a bit difficult to understand the whole society from the snippets of story line that make up an episode.
However we are beginning to like and dislike certain characters, so I guess we're in it for the duration.

At last count we are 30 years behind in episodes <sigh>

I played some 5-Card Draw yesterday and today. I won't make ChromeStar this month
Some of the comments in the thread https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?threadid=328624&goto=firstnew clued me in to the fact that I was giving FL $0.10/$0.20 players too much credit for bluffing, light 3Betting etc.

So today I played 500 hands or so of mixed FL $0.10/$0.20 and FL $0.25/$0.50.
I had a bit of difficulty, as I was doing something totally related at the same time
This turned out to be +EV though (I think) because I could not keep track of how much I had won/lost in the session.

At the end I was surprised to find I had a 3.5 BB/100 over the two limits. Nice.

I think that this was largely due to table selection. I dumped a few tables, then landed on a couple with nits on my left and some looser players on my right.

I did have one table though, where I had a player on my left who called *anything* from the blinds, then led post-draw.
I hate this normally, but I think I adjusted well. I tightened up from the BU and played bluffcatch postdraw. And since he wasn't hitting his weak pairs, I did OK.

I'm pondering moving up to NL 5 as my base NL game. My shot went well, so the only thing holding me back is the mental part.
I need to play one hand at a time. I tend to play differently when I'm ahead or behind. I need to have my behind game in front of me.

Reminds me of the mule song [1]

Cheers,
VS

[1]
On mules we find two legs behind
And two we find before.

We stand behind before we find
What the two behind be for.

I wonder how that translates into Russian?

I guess like this:

In mules we find two feet
And two, we found earlier.

We are back before we met
Two behind being.

How's the Game of Thrones going? I miss it!

Quite a surprising show.
I'm amazed at how elaborate the sets are, and the detail that went into the production is stunning.

There are so many stories going on at once that it's a bit hard to keep track.

We've found our favourite characters -- some of whom are dead already -- and the ones we hate seem to be thriving, but I'm sure everything will get worse and better.

We have not even got through the first season though...
VS

Ohhhh it gets sooo good!!! You lucky so and so.

3 or 4 cliff hangers an episode is special.

Originally posted by zachrina
3 or 4 cliff hangers an episode is special.

No cliff-hangers as yet, but one guy went through a hole in the floor, the dwarf was imprisoned in a cell with no wall, and speaking of walls, I don't want to stand that close to the edge when its that icy.

They're a bit explicit with the gore -- but I've no idea what realistic gore looks like, never having seen a dagger go into an eyeball and out the back of the head in real life.

We have 3 more episodes of S01 to do, then its on to S02,
VS

Mrs Vorpal and I had a wonderful evening out tonight.
We went on a Carol Ship dinner cruise in Vancouver's False Creek and English Bay. I had spotted a coupon for 50% off on this cruise, and I'd always wanted to try one.

With us was a friend we've known for 30 yrs and his new wife. I thought it was going to be hard to include her in conversation, as so much of our history together happened before her, but as it turned out, she is a great conversationalist, and fit right in.

The food was very good, if simple, served buffet style. Better than I expected actually. After dessert, comes the carol singing part.

The staff bravely tried to lead us, but were having a tough time, so the four of us just started "O Come all Ye Faithful" on our own. Dennis can sing a harmony part too, which helped. Soon the whole ship (about 50 people) we following along. We did a couple others then the staff did a few more, but by then the guests were not so afraid and the rest of the songs were better.

I thought most of the customers would be old farts like us, but we were near the oldest there.

No poker though ♠_cry:
VS