against fishes when betting as a bluff,
80% pot gets way more fold equity compared to a 60% pot bet, so bet bigger with bluffs
at the same time we bet smaller with value gets to get more calls.
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i think i made some mistakes with regards to the understanding of the people around me, specifically refering to close friends and family. im not discussing acquaintances here.
previous mistaken beliefs
1. family should support me whatever im doing, and in this respect its poker, internet business etc.
2. my gf should support me because i explained to her what im doing and why i think this is right for our future
3. i think im very intelligent and can overcome obstacles with little effort
why was my belief mistaken?
1. most people, that includes family and friends, WILL NOT understand what we are doing. chances are that they never will.. at least not when its not raking in the $$$.
firstly if they could understand they probably already did it or are doing it, and if they are not, then they do not understand
watching interviews from successful poker players and internet marketers shows that the family never really supported them, in fact their families in some cases kicked them out of the house, i think that poker player happens to be URINDANGER
there were some changes, where the family appears to understand what the son is doing, usually it involves the son being very successful and making alot of $$$, maybe buying something for the parents. i dont think thats understanding, because when that person is doing well EVERYONE behaves positively towards him, parents are just one of them
the observations here seem to suggest its impossible for us to be understood, so dont try. the only thing that seems to work here is more $$$
2. i faced some issues from my family, in simple terms they tried to apply pressure on me financially and emotionally.
i used to think they dont love me, that is mistaken. when i was hospitalized they came straight down and was willing to pay the bills. however that does not mean that their actions helped. they did try to help, but they actually made things worse.
so family is still there for me, but not necessarily make things better.
next i realised i kept complaining about this problem, but the fact is that everyone that succeeded faced this problem too, and coped with it to achieve success, so im going to see this problem in a positive light, but not sure how at this moment in time.
corrected beliefs
TBC
Originally posted by cutegoldfish
against fishes when betting as a bluff,80% pot gets way more fold equity compared to a 60% pot bet, so bet bigger with bluffs
at the same time we bet smaller with value gets to get more calls.
Hi, cutegoldfish...
I'll read the whole blog later, but for now...
Is this not exploitable?
How much more often does 80% have to succeed to be better than 60%?
Why not just split the difference and make all bets 70% pot?
Or am I missing something?
--VS
Hey cutegoldfish, I totally identify with what you have said about family, relatives and close friends are not supporting us in a way. I relate to this with a bit different story, I haven't gone on pro poker player path, though my mother thought I was gambling at first, she now understand that there is a bit more to poker.. but my story lies in me going VEGAN, nobody - and I mean nobody had supported me, on the contrary like in your story, I had be pressured emotionally mainly.
1. Mother thought I'm being abnormal, All family thought I'm going against them:
Think about that for a moment, there is an aspect of group's defense-mechanism; my change is not just about myself, since I'm part of that group, it impacts them too in different ways, I believe it may have some relevance in your case too and in similar situations.
2. Friends perceived me as "Oh he just saw a movie and went crazy and made radical decisions". this may not be the exact case when we dedicate ourselves to poker, but in a way it shares some elements together.
Individuals in groups are very likely to be similar one to another, and sometimes changes individuals make kinda questions and puts others in doubt about US,THEM, THE GROUP.
While most friends didn't cut contacts with me, something has changed.
I believe if I started playing poker for living and not making tons of $$$, I would be seen a bit weird, just as I am now 
What I'm trying to say, lot of times changes and decisions we make in our life, impacts and influences others in our lives.
Today my mother speaks to her friends and says "My boy loves animals and he does that n that, he doesn't eat them because believes that that n that... " something with pride, when it used to be said in a worrisome manner in the past.
Damn, I just did it again... #walloftext 
TLDR; Sometimes decisions and changes we make in our lives, may threaten/question or put in doubt other people in our life (Family, friends, colleagues etc..). maybe it's not necessarily that they don't support us cuz they are against us, it may because of them.
* quite hard to explain deepstuff in English ;> I hope it isn't TOO disorganized and confusing .
Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Originally posted by cutegoldfish
against fishes when betting as a bluff,80% pot gets way more fold equity compared to a 60% pot bet, so bet bigger with bluffs
at the same time we bet smaller with value gets to get more calls.
Hi, cutegoldfish...
I'll read the whole blog later, but for now...Is this not exploitable?
How much more often does 80% have to succeed to be better than 60%?
Why not just split the difference and make all bets 70% pot?
Or am I missing something?
--VS
This is highly exploitable, which is why the target group is the fish, someone who will not realize this or adjust to it.
Off hand I think a 60% bet gets a fold maybe around 50-60% of the time while a 80% bet gets a fold 70-80% of the time, maybe closer to 85%? This matters more especially when we are oop and have it harder on us to realize our equity.
The issue with a 70% pot is that we do not fully profit from each bluff and value situation. If we bet 70% instead of 60% with a weak top pair hand, they fold a lot of random crop which we could otherwise got value from. And the opposite is if we bet 70% instead of say 85%, they call more hands which then we have to give up against. Take note this bigger bet is somewhat like a replacement for a bet flop bet turn line. And cheaper than that.
Imagine yourself as a bully, as long as the person you are bullying does not fight back your strategy is fine. Of course it's poor against anyone else that would fight back. But the point of poker at the lower stakes is to bully the uneducated
Originally posted by SneakyhanD
Hey cutegoldfish, I totally identify with what you have said about family, relatives and close friends are not supporting us in a way. I relate to this with a bit different story, I haven't gone on pro poker player path, though my mother thought I was gambling at first, she now understand that there is a bit more to poker.. but my story lies in me going VEGAN, nobody - and I mean nobody had supported me, on the contrary like in your story, I had be pressured emotionally mainly.1. Mother thought I'm being abnormal, All family thought I'm going against them:
Think about that for a moment, there is an aspect of group's defense-mechanism; my change is not just about myself, since I'm part of that group, it impacts them too in different ways, I believe it may have some relevance in your case too and in similar situations.2. Friends perceived me as "Oh he just saw a movie and went crazy and made radical decisions". this may not be the exact case when we dedicate ourselves to poker, but in a way it shares some elements together.
Individuals in groups are very likely to be similar one to another, and sometimes changes individuals make kinda questions and puts others in doubt about US,THEM, THE GROUP.While most friends didn't cut contacts with me, something has changed.
I believe if I started playing poker for living and not making tons of $$$, I would be seen a bit weird, just as I am nowWhat I'm trying to say, lot of times changes and decisions we make in our life, impacts and influences others in our lives.
Today my mother speaks to her friends and says "My boy loves animals and he does that n that, he doesn't eat them because believes that that n that... " something with pride, when it used to be said in a worrisome manner in the past.
Damn, I just did it again... #walloftext
TLDR; Sometimes decisions and changes we make in our lives, may threaten/question or put in doubt other people in our life (Family, friends, colleagues etc..). maybe it's not necessarily that they don't support us cuz they are against us, it may because of them.
* quite hard to explain deepstuff in English ;> I hope it isn't TOO disorganized and confusing .
1. how does it impact them? mine is pretty obvious, they expect me to pay this and that its all about the $$$
i guess the conclusion is that we are very much on our own with the people that are like minded like us.
Hey goldfish,
subbed ur thread, it's awesome! Btw from what I understoon you're playing NL25 cash games and you make enough money for a living by playing that low limits? o.O Like in your interview you mentioned that in some months you make $5k.
Originally posted by arnsaa1
Hey goldfish,subbed ur thread, it's awesome! Btw from what I understoon you're playing NL25 cash games and you make enough money for a living by playing that low limits? o.O Like in your interview you mentioned that in some months you make $5k.
i used to be playing at nl100, but then some personal stuff happened and i spent most of the money. and yes i make enough playing nl25. im taking coaching and my win rate has increased alot.
i thought of some questions i want to revisit, i may have already answered them before, but i want a better understanding
1. compare zoom tables on pokerstars say nl50 zoom to nl50 normal tables, what is the difference?
2. lets say we call a hand like KQo BB vs CO, when CO is opening around 25% of his range. what is our plan here?
70% of the time we will not hit anything and CO is going to barrel. we called 2bb to win 6.5 bb, in essence we are trying to win more than the -1bb in this situation. if we fold here we lose 100bb/100. by caling, if we can achieve say -80bb/100 we should call because thats an additional 20bb/100. against a strong CO range, are we able to actually get a positive win rate on this hand? how about against a CO range was wide as 50%? i still dont think we can get a positive win rate (im not sure).
3. we call 88 vs MP in the SB because BB is a fish, and we want value from BB.
4. fish limps in CO and we are on BU with a weak hand, possibly ahead of CO like A2o
5. same as 4 but we have TJo
6. we have AK on KT9 connected board with flush draw against a tight reg on the flop and face a c/r.
7. we have 67 in a limp pot vs fish, board comes 457r we bet into the fish 3way and face a huge raise
8. we open a hand like AJ AT on the SB and gets 3bet by BB nit.
sup
Originally posted by cutegoldfish
i thought of some questions i want to revisit, i may have already answered them before, but i want a better understanding1. compare zoom tables on pokerstars say nl50 zoom to nl50 normal tables, what is the difference?
I don't care what anyone says. Zoom tables are way harder than regular tables. You don't get to play as many hands witht the weaker players consecutively to learn their weaknesses as fast. So you can't exploit them as hard before they're gone. And the regs don't try and do as much stupid shit and outlevel themselves after they've been 3b 3 times in a row or something, or seen you fold to a few 3bets in a row, etc.
2. lets say we call a hand like KQo BB vs CO, when CO is opening around 25% of his range. what is our plan here?
70% of the time we will not hit anything and CO is going to barrel. we called 2bb to win 6.5 bb, in essence we are trying to win more than the -1bb in this situation. if we fold here we lose 100bb/100. by caling, if we can achieve say -80bb/100 we should call because thats an additional 20bb/100. against a strong CO range, are we able to actually get a positive win rate on this hand? how about against a CO range was wide as 50%? i still dont think we can get a positive win rate (im not sure).
Against 50% we could 3b for value.
Against a 25%, I think it's a pretty straightforward call. We might not hit too often, but CO shouldn't be cbetting and barreling every time we miss. Or else we could just raise any 2 or call the flop and raise any 2 later on. If it's a more reasonable 50% cbet than we can often take the pot down later on. Depending on cbet size, we can float a lot flop bets with backdoor straight draws/overs, bdfd's, dry flops.
3. we call 88 vs MP in the SB because BB is a fish, and we want value from BB.
no question bro4. fish limps in CO and we are on BU with a weak hand, possibly ahead of CO like A2o
I think this depends on fish tendencies and the players behind. We could raise cbet or limp with it, or just fold.
5. same as 4 but we have TJo
same deal as 4, but I think it's a little stronger, coz less likely to be dominated. So I'd be more likely to raise.
6. we have AK on KT9 connected board with flush draw against a tight reg on the flop and face a c/r.
Pretty straight forward call? I wouldn't cbet the flop however.
7. we have 67 in a limp pot vs fish, board comes 457r we bet into the fish 3way and face a huge raise
I often fold. But depends on fish tendencies, raise size and stack depth.
8. we open a hand like AJ AT on the SB and gets 3bet by BB nit.
Depends how nitty, his 3b stats and fold to 4b stats & his postflop play. I'd think against a nit ATo would be a fold and AJo could probably go into 4b range. But really depends on villain.
some thoughts
sales process of direct vs subtle marketing
previously
i tried to use direct sales approach to sell things. this thing is so good and here look this is the 3 great things it can do for u.
then i learnt that the current generation is different from the past generation. and why the previous approach works for the past.
in the past, before google say around 15-20 years ago. information was lacking. so the direct sales approach is educational. it tells you about the new product and what new and good things it can do for you.
currently, with google and the overload of information and the new age thinking. people are adjusting to processing the information, filtering and then drawing their own conclusions (which may be wrong). and then they will defend this conclusion with time and $$$, because its theirs after all. its like defending their children.
lets delve a little deeper into HOW people nowadays are thinking. there are say 100 pieces of information out there about a new product, lets say on how to lose weight. everyone has very different ideas. a quick search on google brings up so many pages, and say this person takes a look at the top 10 and he learns that
a. diet is important
b. exercise is important
c. sleep is important
and then he may speak to his friends which tell him the same thing.
some salesman in the gym comes along but this salesman gets ignored usually, because although this person can give alot of information on exercise, he did not touch on the previously recognized 3 points which are the diet and sleep
and then this person researches more on diet, and finds out what he needs to eat or dont eat, how to control etc and of course about the rest.
of course we are looking at a very resourceful person here that got it right. how about the rest who did not get it right? which represents 95% of the population? they probably speak to their friends (which is not a good source) since they are also not body builders and are fat. and then this person may search google but instead of focusing on the important stuff from the body builders he probably clicks on something more interesting and taking advice from someone who is not a body builder, and end up with a set of conclusions that is wrong but the process is the same although majorly flawed.
the way to sell to the new age, is to present pieces of of information in the places they search, which is google, their friends, trusted sources in this case the body builders, nutrionists etc.
and when this group of people goes about their search, they will gather YOUR information and naturally form the conclusions for themselves which they think originated from them.
i used this method in marketing poker and i realised that more people knew me because where ever they searched, i was there. people i dont know started talking about me on forums and greeting me at meet ups.
the best part? the work is very simple, i would estimate that im doing something close to 20-30% effort wise of what i did last time but the results were very much more.
i like myself mindset - secondary school gathering
previously i was at a school gathering... maybe around 4-5 years back and they were talking about kids and i said that i hope mine will be just like me. and the girls there gave me a solid stare, why are you like that? i felt bad at that time ,as if my kids should not be like me. i was proud of who i am, although i had many flaws i improved along the way and got better year after year. and then i thought about it, dont they want their kids to be like them? they want their kids to be different? better? why dont they change themselves to be better so that their kids can be like them? does their character suck? why are they not doing anything about it?
and then i happened to have a new group of friends and i think they are very happy with who they are, and they seek to be better every day and i believe they should also be happy if their kids turn out like them. looks like i previously mixed with the wrong group, and its possible to find people who actually like themselves, want to improve and dont mind their kids turning out just like them.
hello jules, thank you for your response, here are some thoughts
1. yea zoom are way harder. my win rates on zoom are like 1bb/100 while on normal tables easily 5bb/100. add the rakeback it becomes like 1.5bb/100 on zoom and 5.5bb/100 on normal tables. i happen to be playing normal tables at the same speed i play zoom so this is an easy comparison. but lets say zoom tables were 2x faster, we discount 5.5bb/100 win rates to 2.75bb/100 and that still beats zoom at 1.5bb/100. and i thought this was another interesting thought process which was lets say the win rates at normal tables were just slightly better than zoom, what now? zoom start-up and end is very fast, probably less than 1min. while normal tables start up takes an average of around 10 mins for me for 12 tables and ending takes around 3-4 minutes (i close the last 3-4 tables without waiting for BB sit out). i will still choose normal tables because the variance is lower. higher win rates gives lower variance, and that helps the mindset alot. we see alot more fishes in the normal tables that will spew off or stack off light and very few of them in zoom. seeing them other than being profitable gives us confidence that the poker game is still profitable.
like what you mentioned, being at a normal table allows you to sit in position of the fish and learn his tendencies and have him there for a while. some people complain they dont extract value from the fish enough because other regs got it. but if u consider the alternative which is zoom, no fish to extract value from or the fish is there maybe once or twice, clearly having just 10-20 hands on a fish is better than 2-3. what should we expect? the fish to be there and call everything and stack off everytime to give us his stack? i think getting something like half his stack 20-30% of the time sounds reasonable. dont forget the fish hits too, in fact i just lost 400bb to a fish that hit the board. thats the reason why he plays, because he actually has a chance to hit or have a hand and win against a professional player. without that chance he would never deposit on the site.
2. i think the main point here is that we are not actually going to win often. the point of the call here is so that we lose less than -100bb/100. -80bb/100 is good enough. which means the plan here is to check/fold many boards and continue only when we have some sort of a hand. while check/raising as an adjustment might be more profitable. check/folding most boards and playing your hand normally is sufficient to be better than folding.
wont discuss 3betting vs calling and entire range here because that would be another 300-500 words to explain entire range defence. in essence sometimes we call a hand like KQo even though 3betting that particular hand can be more profitable (or less losing) because it allows other hands to be defended and a higher overall win rate in the BB vs CO position.
3. the issue here is that many times when BB calls and the flop comes, there will be overcards to our 88, and MP is not betting into the fish unless he has a hand. i am not sure what to do here. if we check and MP checks back without a hand its dangerous because half the deck is overcards, we are OOP and against 2 players.
i think if the board comes favorable we can donk out like J72 Q62 where we have 2nd pair and the high card does not neccesary hit his A K heavy range.
but how about A72 K94 boards? i guess check/fold is better. MP is seldom betting without a hand and our hand is too weak to call. we could have avoided this situation with a 3bet pre flop, but i think its worth risking such situations where we give up our hand, for the more profitable ones where we hit a set or 2nd pair and get value from the fish
4. yea im not sure too. obvious situations where he calls and folds flop or just folds his limp makes it easy for us to raise a wide range even maybe 89o. but what if he calls and floats flops and turns alot? how wide can we raise for value? what shall we bet flop and turn knowing he calls wide?
just a guess maybe we expand our isolating range to A8? while A2 will be a fold in this case. and we expand our value betting range on the flop to any pair, A high? and expand turn value betting range to 2nd pair or better, and chk back OESD GS FD since their fold equity is almost non-existent?
5. with TJo here against a fish that limp/calls and floats alot i think this hand would be a call, with the intention of folding to any aggression, calling bets with draws and checking back and then potting big if we hit something strong. we dont have fold equity, yet have good implied odds. a top pair like J is strong enough to raise for value sometimes against a super wide range.
6. yea maybe we should not be betting here. but again he is not raising bluffs so often? i think its a fold here. but again if we cant call a bet maybe we should check? and if we think his range is wide enough for us to value bet then maybe we should call unless his raising range is like 5% over large sample sizes.
7. yep i just faced this and i called and i realised it was a mistake. the fish has a really strong hand here most of the time and will pay off when we hit, but we dont have the odds to hit. and sometimes they raise here with hands like JJ QQ which is ready to stack off but when an K or A comes they might shut down lowering the implied odds. im guessing the maths will involve the fish stacking off by the river around 70% of the time and we need to hit something strong, so we probably call something like 69 here for the nut straight when we hit. and we need the fish to be deeper, maybe even 200bb might not be enough, we might need closer to 300bb for the odds to be right. but again will the fish stack off 300bb?
8. yep this is a dependant situation. if hes wide enough and checks flop often we can call wider. if folds to 4bets alot we can throw more hands into our 4betbluff range. and if hes really tight we can even fold AJo here maybe even AJs because his range is just only AK QQ+ and maybe at worse AQ which all crushes us.
just some reflections on poker vs internet marketing
competition
where is the $$$ coming from???
poker - the money comes from the fishes, the people that do not know how to play poker properly. but like any other game, people start to learn the rules and even the worst informed at least can tell he MIGHT have a flush or a straight. as we proceed to higher income levels, the competition gets much tougher as everyone already knows the rules and strategies etc etc. we are talking about being the top 10k poker players in the world and ONLY having a x,xxx income.
internet marketing - the money comes from the advertisers or the consumers. either ways it depends on whether the consumers actually buy and continue to use the product, so the focus is on the consumer. consumers are usually UNAWARE of what is happening. they also gain knowledge of the product pretty slowly and at a low level. how much do you really know about the products you use daily? maybe some information, but definitely a whole lot lesser than what the professionals at the higher levels know about poker. the competition comes from other advertisers but really the market is so big that the net increase in competition is not as much as in poker (i think?)
transferability
poker - there is alot of maths, and its well used. while other people think there is not much else, i think there is alot more, just that its very little when compared to internet marketing. i used the way ahead/way behind concept in life, only choosing to act when it actually makes a difference in the end result. i have to delve into the thinking my opponent, this is very general, but i never had anything else that made me do this. most of the things learnt in poker like the card math and reading is not exactly applicable in real life, though it gives the idea that we should delve into our opponents thinking.
internet marketing - really i dont know but as of now i think i learnt many skills that are very useful such as photoshop, making a simple lander, ripping banners, understanding a little code in order to set up tracking.
people
poker - the people here are mostly highly intelligent and emotionally mature, i want to identify myself like that but maybe im still far from it. they are not always willing to help, but more willing to help than the people in my country
internet marketing - the people i have seen so far are actually fairly normal and yet they are making more than the people i thought had better character??? and they are mostly willing to help, and their learning attitude is fantastic, i think its better than the poker players.
prospects/problems
poker - the prospects for poker are pretty limited, u move up to high stakes, and maybe u start coaching people. the problem is that the skills required to TEACH and play is different. and u need to promote your services, again a different set of skill from playing poker. lets say i mess up something and get my account banned, i lose alot alot of privileges that takes time to set up, maybe a year. gambling has compliance issues with many countries and difficult to raise capital
internet marketing - u learn to sell, selling anything is the same u just sell it according to a certain set of rules, if you notice the ads are actually pretty similar. when i mess up and get my account banned, it probably takes 1-2 months to get everything back to shape(i think). there are less compliance issues compared to gambling and its easier to raise capital. this makes alot of difference to a company. the ability to raise capital increases a company's worth by 10-20x.
what i learnt today
fear as a motivator >>>
ego >>>
abercrombie and fitch ads at orchard naked guys
perfume with hot looking women and men
imagery-- product and advert is not related, its an implied thinking based on hardwiring
credibility by osmosis >>> using a credible organisation/person makes others thing you are credible.
men in white coats (looking like doctors)
bandwagon effect>>>
concluding thoughts, the final copy that results is unconvincingly simple and easy to dismiss.
This is one of the best-written blogs I have come across on this site. Good luck to you!
Hey man! How its going? I see there are some missing posts lately ♦
I have overcome my laziness and mental problems so back to the tables again 
Hi there cutegoldfish. have not seen your posts for quite a while (although I just joined, but the last you posted even on EDMW was like 2 months back). you did really well with all the explanations, and am keen to learn poker from you. hope to cya back soon
