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AQ utg/mp passiv line vs unknown regular

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mysteryman21
Joined: 18.09.2010

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $55.06 (110.1 bb)
BB: $30.63 (61.3 bb)
Hero (UTG): $58.91 (117.8 bb)
MP: $72.32 (144.6 bb)
CO: $62.92 (125.8 bb)
BTN: $61.73 (123.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A Q
Hero raises to $1.25, MP calls $1.25, 4 folds

Flop: ($3.25) 5 K A (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $2, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($7.25) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50

River: ($18.25) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $12.50, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

$18.25 pot ($0.82 rake)
Final Board: 5 K A 9 5
Hero mucked A Q and lost (-$8.75 net)
MP mucked and won $17.43 ($8.68 net)

31/25 over 53h . I am sure I should call river, but gut feeling. He wont bet AQ 3 times, same as AJ. He only has JThh and QJhh flushes.


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2 replies

Hi Mysteryman,

I think that you can look at just cbetting this flop to begin with. Plenty of worse can call you.

Once you give up that initiative villain can do all sorts of things and you are left second guessing every move.

You block NFD and he doesn't have many value hands, let alone strong ones... can we not at least consider bluffing if you can't call?


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Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Hey Mysteryman21,

Flop play is fine. We should obviously be cbetting with a reasonable frequency also unless checking is clearly better exploitatively.

Turn easy check-call especially when we pick up the NFD.

Assuming he doesn't value-bet any worse hands we just have a pure bluffcatcher on the river here. So it purely comes down to his bluffing frequency. Despite our seemingly capped range, the average villain will still have a 3barrel range which is unbalanced towards value meaning we have an exploitative fold with all bluff-catchers. So probably fine to fold here unless we can get more detailed information on what his bluff:value ratio is in this particular situation.


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