villain's stats over 437 hands: VPIP 46 | PFR 32 | 3bet 8,9 | AF 2,7 | Fold2Cbet 64% | x/r Cbet 15%
$0.02/$0.05 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
PokerStars
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($10.93) 219bb
mejdja (CO) ($5.13) 103bb
BTN ($7) 140bb
SB ($3.68) 74bb
BB ($5) 100bb
Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 5 players) mejdja is CO 10:diamond: 6♠ A♦ K♠
UTG raises to $0.17, mejdja raises to $0.53, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.36
Flop: 4♠ 8♦ 3♠ ($1.13, 2 players)
UTG checks, mejdja bets $0.71, UTG raises to $1.85, mejdja calls $1.14
Turn: 8♠ ($4.83, 2 players)
UTG bets $3.20, mejdja calls $2.75
River: K♥ ($10.33, 2 players)
Spoiler
Final Pot: $10.33
mejdja shows
10:diamond: 6♠ A♦ K♠
UTG shows
Q♦ 3♦ 3♥ Q♣
UTG wins $10.83 (net +$5.25)
mejdja lost $5.13
[P] i think i dominate quite some of villains hands and i probably get a lot of folds otf when we both miss (64% Fold2Cbet) and hence 3bet even though my hand does well multiway (also i dont mind pushing out the BTN)
[F] this flop probably hits villains range more often than mine and i think that checking back would be best here. yet, i still think i have a lot of immediate fold equity and decide to cbet.
i need 23.6% equity to call his raise and im confident i have that against his range. still, i have quite some reversed implied odds and folding might be best here (?)
[T] my initial plan was to call any spade, any diamond, any pair but im really not sure what to do here. maybe some1 can help with a pokerjuice analysis? i need to be "right" about 26.6% of the time. so he has to have a worse flush or some sort of wrap or 43 26.6% of the time. does that seem reasonable?
furthermore, i think his flop raise size indicates way more made hands than draws, so i guess its probably a fold (?)