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QQ faces raise on flop

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mildo
Joined: 30.10.2011

No Limit Hold'em $0.02/$0.04
PartyPoker
6 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com - Mac OS X hand history analysis and tracking

Stacks:
MP - MP ($1.21)
CO - CO ($8.27)
BTN - BTN ($4.00)
SB - SB ($7.58)
UTG - UTG ($2.15)
BB - Hero ($5.15)

Preflop: ($0.06, 6 players) Hero is BB with Q♦ Q♣
MP calls $0.04, CO calls $0.04, 1 fold, SB calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.24, 1 fold, CO calls $0.20, SB calls $0.20

Flop: 2♣ J♣ 7♣ ($0.76, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.54, CO raises to $1.08, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.54

Turn: 9♠ ($2.92, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $2.08, 1 fold

Total Pot: $5.00

CO wins $4.86

Villain is 43/4 just over 53 hands. Flop looks very nice to me i have overpair and FD but the perspective changed quickly after he min-raise me. It sucks but I though that a cannot fold here. The plan on the turn was to x/f anything that will not complete flush. If the flush hits on the turn i will decide by the size of his bet. Overall i just cannot imagine a hand that i am beating when facing a raise on flop and bet on turn from this passive player. Only hand is maybe AJ with A of clubs. Is this a standard fold or should i stack off on flop?


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3 replies
Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Hi, mildo
43/4 tells me that this guy plays a TON of flush draws, and with stats like that he is probably playing fit-or-fold as well. There aren't too many true maniacs around any more -- they lost all the money _biggrin:

If he is passive, and starts raising, I get out of there.
53 hands is not a lot to go on, either but even against an unknown I think that I get out when the best hand I can make by the river is the 2nd or 3rd nut flush.

Even if you DO have the best hand now, if he has the A♣: or K♣: (or both) you really, really don't want to see an A, K or club OTR.

Here is what Equilab has to say.
I used a fairly artificial range for CO -- no AA, KK or sets

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    31.85%  31.59%   0.26% { AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, AdKc, AhKc, AsKc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQc, AhQc, AsQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdJc, AhJc, AsJc, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AdTc, AhTc, AsTc, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, KdQc, KhQc, KsQc, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdJc, KhJc, KsJc, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, KdTc, KhTc, KsTc, KcTd, KcTh, KcTs }
MP3    68.15%  67.89%   0.26% { QdQc }

So you're a 2:1 favourite based on hole cards alone.

Now add the flop:

Board: 2♣J♣7♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    47.74%  47.74%   0.00% { AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, AdKc, AhKc, AsKc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQc, AhQc, AsQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdJc, AhJc, AsJc, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AdTc, AhTc, AsTc, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, KdQc, KhQc, KsQc, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdJc, KhJc, KsJc, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, KdTc, KhTc, KsTc, KcTd, KcTh, KcTs }
MP3    52.26%  52.26%   0.00% { QdQc }

Now its a flip.

OTT your equity improves slightly, as villain now has only 1 street to hit his outs (assuming you're not beat already)

Even so, I can't fault the fold, since you don't have pot odds to make the call, and you have only marginally correct implied odds <== I didn't calculate this, I just guessed.

Disclaimer: I am NOT a coach!

Best of luck,
VS


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

You can raise even bigger preflop. You can fold even on flop after the raise.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

When oop, preflop I always raise to 4 bb's + 1 bb per limper, so in this case I would raise to $0,28. OTF, I agree that we can fold, since we are not drawing to the nuts, but I would also consider it tough to fold, especially against a minraise. I would then fold the turn.


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