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LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

BB
26/21
AF:2
3b:9
call BBvsBU:26
fold to cb:21
x/raise cb:20(15)
Bet turn after raise flop:100(3)
River Agg%:31
WTSD:36
W$SD:48
766h.

OTF easy call. I think he can x/r w 88/66/Q8/JTs/T9s/J9s/97s/ maybe some Ac8c/Kc8c/Jc8c/Tc8c
OTT one of the worst cards for me, T9 has a straight and JTs/J9s might not bet. So I'm not so sure about the turn.
OTR it's tough, I'm thinking that he might not have enough bluffs in his range to call profitably.

Poker Stars $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2803317
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $17.61
SB: $4.23
BB: $19.32
UTG: $10.82
MP: $16.24
CO: $30.06

Pre Flop: ($0.24) Hero is BTN with A :diamond: Q :spade:
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.32, 1 fold, BB calls $0.16

Flop: ($0.72) Q :club: 6 :club: 8 :spade: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.48, BB raises to $1.57, Hero calls $1.09

Turn: ($3.86) J :diamond: (2 players)
BB bets $2.45, Hero calls $2.45

River: ($8.76) 2 :heart: (2 players)
BB bets $5.57, Hero ???


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8 replies
Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

Well, 3rd club didn't occur otr, I would be inclined to call


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zoty79
Joined: 31.03.2010

OK, lets check at first his BB vs BTN stat. No stat there. You´ ve posted BB vs. SB. Useless at this point :f_drink:
Not let´s check his c/r stat. He has 20% out of 15 situations, that means, he c/r 3 times out of 15. Thats not much.

If he has enough bluff on the river, i would call, that means he has 12 Value hands on the river, and needs to bluff 5 Combos, to make that call for you breakeven.
But, the difference bettween VPIP and PFR is 5%. So heavily pocketpairheavy and his low c/r on the flop would lead me to a tight fold.


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LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

Thanks, zoty79 for finding a mistake:f_thumbsup: I typed it wrong, it's BBvsBU


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zoty79
Joined: 31.03.2010

Welcome! Did you call the river?


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010
thazar
Joined: 14.09.2009

With the range that you have given:


Board: 8♠Q♣6♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    42.41%  42.36%   0.05% { AdQs }
MP3    57.59%  57.55%   0.05% { 88, 66, Q8s, J9s+, T9s, 97s, Ac8c, Kc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, Q8o }

you have to call $1.09 for a pot of $2.77 (39%.) so OTF it is a very close call especially if you add the rake
If you take off Q8o (which i think you can) your call is fine (46%) equity.

On the other hand we are either slightly ahead or way behind and because of this I think a fold OTF is probably nitty but the best option

OTT, if he were to barrel 100% of his range, you need 38.8% equity (not counting the rake) and you have 38.5%. Taking the rake into consideration and the fact that he might drop more draw combo than value if he was to drop anything; therefore the turn, IMO, is a clear fold.

As played, OTR, I think his sizing is representative of value but it doesn't improve his range what so ever, so I think the call OTT, warrants a call OTR.


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LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

Thanks, thazar for deep analysis, I agree with fold OTT and that if I call OTT I should probably call on blank river as well, but I folded OTR.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

River is definately a fold. After the postflop action we should not call there.


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