Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

AKo

42 Posts
13 Users
0 Reactions
4,910 Views
caltabiano
Joined: 09.03.2007

Originally posted by Castle93

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by Castle93
I could be gone but Cbet turn stat isn't the right stat here. That's only if he checks the flop as the pre flop aggressor?

You can't call the turn and fold to a blank river

Call turn, call river, you could consider folding to a Q river but for 40BB into like 120BB, it's close.

Agree here. Want to add that we cannot fold or our call preflop is worthless.

+1, see my first post πŸ˜‰

+1 agreement here. Either call down or fold pre-flop. Although let us agree that we're either catching something turned into a bluff, or we're splitting with AK, or he does have AA. Come on, he's not 3betting AQ in that situation...

If we call turn and he shoves river, we have to pay about 40 and total pot will be 200, so 20% equity we need. If on the river we're sure he only shoves AK and AA, there's 1 combo of AA and 6 of AK, but we split with AK, meaning our equity against this range will be 3 in 7, or almost 50%, so yeah easy call if he shoves river. And there will be times he shows up with something unexpected and then we win big, right? =)


Reply
Quote
Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

4BB is a fairly standard raise from UTG at FR. If you are sometimes raising a smaller size from the same position with a weaker hand, that's a tell.

SB looks tight/nittish. Before you gave the stats I would have assumed his 3bet vs EP was less than that. Either this is a sample size issue or he is insufficiently adjusting for position (which is likely enough at NL2). A 3% 3bet range should be something like {TT+, AK}. In fact, there's a good chance it's exactly that range. It doesn't include AQ. Therefore AQ isn't in villain's range OTT.

A villain like that will probably only continue with KK+ if you 4bet pre-flop. Card elimination means there are only 6 combos in that range, vs 27 folding combos. I don't have equilab here so I can't do a proper EV calculation, but 4bet should be quite a bit +EV. As has been noted, if you're going to take this line on a dry A-high flop, it's difficult to see how calling can be profitable and 4betting may be better for you. I do not think you can fold this hand pre-flop.

If you do call pre-flop, you do so on the assumption that you will be ahead on any A-high or K-high flop, and you will want to get the chips in. Conversely, you will certainly be behind on any other flop and you can give up the hand relatively cheaply (or, since you're IP, you may be able to take a free card and hope). Because villain is likely to read your hand, it's not really a situation in which you can often bluff profitably. It also has to be said that calling pre-flop only makes sense if you believe that villain can pay you with a worse hand when you hit TPTK.

You can assume that villain will cbet his entire range on that flop, with cbet 71%. At this point you're ahead against 21 combos, tied with 6 combos and beaten by 1 combo. The problem is that villain won't call a raise with second pair (and there are no worse TPs in his range), so you don't get value by raising. So you call. But how do you get value from calling? Only because you hope to induce villain to bet again with a worse hand. If you're convinced he won't do so, you may as well raise and take the pot rather than give him a chance to suck you out.

So the logic of having called the flop implies you have to call OTT.

The cbet turn stat (to answer Castle93) shows how often the villain, having been PFA and having cbet (and been called) OTF makes a further cbet OTT. If he checks the flop, the stat to look at would be "delayed cbet". So we are looking at the right stat here. Because villain is not very aggressive pre-flop, I suspect there will be a sample size issue with the cbet turn oop stat. In fact, there obviously is, because the true value can't be 0. If we really thought this stat was 0 (or close to 0), we shouldn't have called OTF, because we can't get any more money by doing that.

Even if villain's range is {AA,AK} OTT, that's 1 combo which beats us and 6 combos which draw. That gives us 3/7 of the pot, so EV of calling is still +17BB. Likewise, we will also have to call OTR if villain bets again. In some sense, by calling the 3bet pre-flop, we're already committed to calling the villain down on a board like this.


Reply
Quote
Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

Originally posted by caltabiano
let us agree that we're either catching something turned into a bluff, or we're splitting with AK, or he does have AA. Come on, he's not 3betting AQ in that situation...

Exactly this.


Reply
Quote
Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

Originally posted by caltabiano
Either call down or fold pre-flop.

Not this though. We cannot fold AK vs 3bet or we're exploitable. Besides I calculate that even 4bet/fold is EV +8BB just from the FE. So the choice is call down or 4bet pre-flop.


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by Lathdari

Originally posted by caltabiano
Either call down or fold pre-flop.

Not this though. We cannot fold AK vs 3bet or we're exploitable. Besides I calculate that even 4bet/fold is EV +8BB just from the FE. So the choice is call down or 4bet pre-flop.

But you cannot foldon flop either as you will fold top of your range and you willbe exploitable too.


Reply
Quote
Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

I think that's the same as what I said?


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Why do you want to 4 bet if you are not ready to call down with a TPTK?


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by Lathdari
I think that's the same as what I said?

not at all, m8.


Reply
Quote
Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

As you've said, we can't not call down with TPTK if we call PF (at least not on this board) because then we'd be folding our entire range at some point, which would be exploitable. So if we aren't willing to call down, we have to 4bet PF.


Reply
Quote
Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by Lathdari
I think that's the same as what I said?

not at all, m8.

Nah, I clearly said in my comment timed at 16:40 that we should call the flop.


Reply
Quote
Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

To be completely clear, I, Lathdari, call this pre-flop because I am ready to call down with TPTK. OP is not ready to do this, as we can see. So he would be better 4betting pre-flop.


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by Lathdari
As you've said, we can't not call down with TPTK if we call PF (at least not on this board) because then we'd be folding our entire range at some point, which would be exploitable. So if we aren't willing to call down, we have to 4bet PF.

I said I like to call down...


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by Lathdari

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by Lathdari
I think that's the same as what I said?

not at all, m8.

Nah, I clearly said in my comment timed at 16:40 that we should call the flop.

There is difference between 4 bet and fold...


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by Lathdari
To be completely clear, I, Lathdari, call this pre-flop because I am ready to call down with TPTK. OP is not ready to do this, as we can see. So he would be better 4betting pre-flop.

Still one and the same... As I've already told you I like to call down here too.


Reply
Quote
caltabiano
Joined: 09.03.2007

What's he folding to our 4bet anyway? If he's 3betting for value there, he's definitely ready to stack off. I mean, his 3betting range is pretty fricking strong imo. It's SB vs UTG. Depending on villain, we can probably fold pre-flop... I really wouldn't worry about being exploitable on NL2. I don't think we're gonna build enough history with the regs for them to exploit our fold to 3bets pre-flop in such a situation. So I really wonder if a bluff 4bet is worth it...

i doubt he's 3betting TT and JJ in a SB vs UTG situation. But then again haven't been around the FR tables for long. But it seems pretty loose and extremely non-profitable to do that. The crappy thing about calling pre-flop is that we're hardly every getting paid when we hit.. we're either gonna be dominated by KK+, split against AK or get folds from QQ. Call it weak, but I think that against a reg, this could even be a fold pre-flop. IMO, the value of AK in UTG is to extract value from AQ/AJ/KQ calls pre-flop.

Again, I really don't worry about being expolitable in NL2. THEY should be calling us with AK in this situation, and then we show up with KK, AA and 67s =) Then we get paid for our weak fold pre-flop


Reply
Quote

I doubt this reg is exploiting anyone. He got tagged as bad reg, means I've seen him probably call a 4b or what not. I think I'm okay with the hand now, thanks for the input guys..


Reply
Quote
Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

Originally posted by caltabiano
What's he folding to our 4bet anyway? If he's 3betting for value there, he's definitely ready to stack off. I mean, his 3betting range is pretty fricking strong imo. It's SB vs UTG. Depending on villain, we can probably fold pre-flop... I really wouldn't worry about being exploitable on NL2. I don't think we're gonna build enough history with the regs for them to exploit our fold to 3bets pre-flop in such a situation. So I really wonder if a bluff 4bet is worth it...

i doubt he's 3betting TT and JJ in a SB vs UTG situation. But then again haven't been around the FR tables for long. But it seems pretty loose and extremely non-profitable to do that. The crappy thing about calling pre-flop is that we're hardly every getting paid when we hit.. we're either gonna be dominated by KK+, split against AK or get folds from QQ.

What you say makes perfect sense, but it doesn't match the stats provided. Villain is a bad reg, so although he's 3betting tight, he isn't adjusting his 3bet range properly according to position, so he's actually looser than you think vs UTG. My guess is that he's read some sort of poker 101 guide which says that {TT+, AK} is a good 3bet range and he uses that against all positions except steals. His poker 101 guide will also tell him to get up all hands except KK+ when he gets 4bet, so I think he'll fold plenty. Obviously we can confirm this by checking the relevant stat first. For the same reason, I think we're getting more value from calling than you imagine.


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

How did you decide that villain is a bad reg?


Reply
Quote
Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

OP has tagged him as a bad reg. But that isn't really the point, the point is he has overall 3B 4.56 and 3BetVSPosition against EP raise 3%. As I said above, it could be a sample size issue, but it's common enough at NL2 that villains lack positional awareness, so I'm prepared to believe it.


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I would not believe much on the note. Many players tag villains as "fish" even not knowing what it means...
Villain is tight.


Reply
Quote