AQ versus very aggressive Button

I would just call on the river, i dont think he is calling a 2pair there if you raise.

With your description of said vilian I would reraise, he could have the flush but everything your straight beats is also likely for him to be bolding.

I would have raised OTT. Villain is a maniac with an extremely high VPIP/PFR. I definitely understand the pot control OTF, would have done the same. A lot of villain's hands hit the flop but, indeed as you said, a lot also didn't. By raising OTT you kind of freeze the action and you have many Q's, A's and 10's as outs. Wouldn't be too worried about a flush since it is only a small part of villain's range. Most hands you beat and thus a raise OTT and after that a big value bet OTR would be my strategy in this case. Get as much value as possible from fishes

I don't see the point of raising the turn .As hero is trying to bluff catch essentially.getting rid of his bluffs is not the goal.
I am not sure if villain is paying much attention about your table image at NL5. In most case they will not.
As you said there is a lot of bluffs in his range and you wont get any value from there . what you want is value from his AK, KQ 2 pairs etc...
The flush is there but as said above it is a small portion of his range.
I would just flick it back personally, giving him what will seem a good price to call and giving you an extra 21bb when he calls.

How many hands do we have on villain? Considering he looks like a maniac I think we can raise here. There is plenty of worse hands villain will play like this. Still just calling is fine too imo. I think I would have called this.

Thazar, you may be more right than I am. Thanks and good analysis!

I do not like the idea of raising in this hand. Villain seems active and I do not mind calling him down even on the river.

I agree with nitrol. This guy has AF infinite. If that's really true (and I would also like to know the sample size), it means he will never call a raise: he either folds or reraises. Likely enough we'll just fold out hands we would beat any way or have to fold to a reraise: essentially we give up our showdown value. The only thing which might work would be a small raise OTR to provoke a bluff shove, but I can't see him bluffing that much when flush and straight draws have completed.

Even though he has "infinite aggression", our hand is quite trashy on turn. I'd rather bluff-catch when we have some equity on the pot tbh.

Hmmm, figuring you are a favorite on the turn is a bit of a stretch. You aren't unless he really hates money.

Originally posted by YohanN7
Hmmm, figuring you are a favorite on the turn is a bit of a stretch. You aren't unless he really hates money.

I disagree, you'z got an ace. if he is spewy he can have a lot of hands that did not hit the board, and the K is a great card to barrel

Originally posted by Lathdari
(and I would also like to know the sample size)

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's much closer to 5 hands than 5,000 hands.

Originally posted by MJPerry

Originally posted by Lathdari
(and I would also like to know the sample size)

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's much closer to 5 hands than 5,000 hands.

I will be more precise- it is less than 50.

Too small sample, I think ♦ I still agree with me that this hand is too weak to call on turn.. If he is not ahead of us, he should have a hand that has more outs than us..

Originally posted by CPallo
Too small sample, I think ♦ I still agree with me that this hand is too weak to call on turn.. If he is not ahead of us, he should have a hand that has more outs than us..

I somewhat agree. I know that I sometimes call down similar hands after just seen a few previous hands of a particular player.

I still think that calling down is ok play here.

I checked the number of hands I had for the villian and I had 125 hands on him. I know it's a small sample, but he was playing consistent so I went with that info for my read.

I'll stick out my nose for slapping.

Anyone advocating a turn call with the intention of calling down a reasonable river bet does not understand one of the fundamental principles of NL Hold'em. It is "when you are out of position, you have to release some hands that are probably the best". That's right, if stacks are deep it might be right to release hands as strong as top pair, particularly if the player behind is competent. The reason is the "threat of future bets". A good player will put you in extremely tough spots (because he is good). If there is extremely little money behind (or the game is FL Hold'em), then call turn - call river is reasonable versus the average population.

Once the river card gets there, the opponent will have a pair more often than not. His A♥:3♣: beats your nothing, and if he decides to bluff with that, you will feel pretty stupid calling with a hand that can't beat even a reasonable portion of his bluffs. I also don't give a shit for these range estimates where one tries to put a nearly completely unreadable opponent on a precise range. It is not totally uncommon to have players go wild pre-flop and on flop and then turn very rational on the big bet streets. Calling down with a J could be fine versus a confirmed lunatic. Calling down with nothing is not okay. Where is the evidence that this guy hates money? Hi did bet on flop and turn. This is an indicator of at least some equity in the pot rather than no equity.

To be a bit more precise: If you have 40% equity and the pot odds tell you that you need 30% to call, it may still be a clear fold. (The 58% and 26% you give is just a wet dream.) The last betting round must be taken into account, and there the guy with position has a tremendous advantage. You will never realize your equity, but the opponent will realize his equity and much more.

Had this situation (turn) actually been on the river, the situation changes. The threat of future bets is gone. (But the range estimate is still totally picked out of thin air.)

EDIT: And a check-raise AI is far superior to calling. Now you might beat many of his pairs (unless he really really hates money - even more than you). I'd personally fold on turn.

Originally posted by YohanN7
<insert big lecture on calling turns to fold rivers>

I agree with this.

Originally posted by YohanN7
EDIT: And a check-raise AI is far superior to calling.

I really agree with this.

Originally posted by YohanN7
I'd personally fold on turn.

I disagree with this.