Preflop okey.
Raise flop imo. Turnraise is optimistic. Just call.
As played, easy fold on river.
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Originally posted by VaskataBuci
I would raise flop here and pray he has decent hand. With all hands mentioned above + many more I expect him to go AI. This is not the hand and the villain to slowplay.
Totally agree. There are a lot action killers and bad cards for us and we should try to put money in while we are ahead.
Originally posted by kriko92
Originally posted by MJPerry
Originally posted by kriko92
You are absolutely right that we want to put our opponents on reasonable ranges. How do we do that? Start with the hands that make sense on all streets. By making sense I mean that most people will take this line with those hands, the standard line. When we are finished with those (as I said, only JJ here for me), we can start thinking about other hands he might have.I don't understand why he can't have AsQs, 99, 66 here?
It's possible for him to have such hands but there are two more likely lines with them - one is to shove turn and the other is to call turn and check river. These hands are what I meant when I said in my first post that the next hands that we can add after JJ with low probabilities still beat us.
Most players won't 3bet the turn with the effective nuts. People love to slowplay.
In fact, it's WAY more likely that he'd bet/call 99 or 66 than a pair of jacks.
Originally posted by nitrol
Yohan, we cannot call with flush and pair on board, no matter how you try to convince the field about that.
I am not trying to convince the field to call. I am trying to convince (part of) the field that their method of "reading hands", which amounts mostly to "putting villain on a hand" and then follow that "read" slavishly, ignoring everything else, has serious flaws. Then the standard assumption that "he NEVER bluffs here" is added to make things fool proof ...
I have already admitted that my original quantitative assessment was not spot on. I admit now it is downright wrong, in particular because I totally forgot about flopped sets (either because I was tired or because I have beginning Altzheimer's). I am talking about qualitative aspects of assessing a situation.
I agree with you on the part that we should not play vs a hand but try to play vs a range.
It is good that you changed your view on the hand as your first opinion made me feel uncomfortable. 
Originally posted by MJPerry
...Originally posted by nitrol
Yohan, we cannot call with flush and pair on board, no matter how you try to convince the field about that.Yeah we literally beat only bluffs.
... and mistaken value bets with 6X. He is erratic.
But see post above. I admit that I calculated wrongly, forgot totally flopped sets.
Originally posted by nitrol
I agree with you on the part that we should not play vs a hand but try to play vs a range.
It is good that you changed your view on the hand as your first opinion made me feel uncomfortable.
I apologize for that. It was me who was seriously flawed in execution of math, not anyone else.You know, I thought about the hand when I was falling asleep last night, and THEN my blunder struck me. I think I then dreamt about it:D
Originally posted by YohanN7
Originally posted by MJPerry
...Originally posted by nitrol
Yohan, we cannot call with flush and pair on board, no matter how you try to convince the field about that.Yeah we literally beat only bluffs.
... and mistaken value bets with 6X. He is erratic.
We can't say that after only 7 hands. Any solid player could be 54/42 after just 7 hands at a 6-max table.
Originally posted by MJPerry
Originally posted by YohanN7
Originally posted by MJPerry
...Originally posted by nitrol
Yohan, we cannot call with flush and pair on board, no matter how you try to convince the field about that.Yeah we literally beat only bluffs.
... and mistaken value bets with 6X. He is erratic.
We can't say that after only 7 hands. Any solid player could be 54/42 after just 7 hands at a 6-max table.
Lol, not my most brilliant thread I see:D
I was relying on the comment "Player was playing bad but winning, a lot somehow." in the OP.
Originally posted by MJPerry
Originally posted by YohanN7
Originally posted by MJPerry
...Originally posted by nitrol
Yohan, we cannot call with flush and pair on board, no matter how you try to convince the field about that.Yeah we literally beat only bluffs.
... and mistaken value bets with 6X. He is erratic.
We can't say that after only 7 hands. Any solid player could be 54/42 after just 7 hands at a 6-max table.
I am also opponent to reading stats for 7 hand sample...
I can have 54/42 if I hot lucky to have playable hands.
Oh wow, it must be said (again). Nobody will ever be able to compete with nitrol when it comes to post count.
Originally posted by YohanN7
Oh wow, it must be said (again). Nobody will ever be able to compete with nitrol when it comes to post count.
Yeah. He must be millionaire already ♦
Originally posted by YohanN7
Oh wow, it must be said (again). Nobody will ever be able to compete with nitrol when it comes to post count.
At least he usually gives decent advice. Imagine that level of spam if it were total bullshit 24/7!
Originally posted by MJPerry
Originally posted by YohanN7
Oh wow, it must be said (again). Nobody will ever be able to compete with nitrol when it comes to post count.At least he usually gives decent advice. Imagine that level of spam if it were total bullshit 24/7!
You know that I love you!
This hand is kind an easy one it surprises me a lots seeing people saying that river is a call. It's an easy fold!!
The standart gameplan against an unknown NL5 player in a bvb spot in that runout will be:
PReflop - With reads 8To bb vs sb can be either fold call or 3bet. In that situation 3betting is risky and loose with no info but either calling or folding is fine
Postflop - The main mistake was calling that flop bet in such wet board, raise there is a MUST! You protect, extract value and in blindwars people don't respect raises that much and that makes his calling and some possible bluff 3bet ranges larger. After raise we would bet turn shove river if bricks comeout or pot control if the runout is bad( spade / paired board). In that specific scenario i would bet turn and cbh river AFTER raising the flop.
As played you can't call the river. You did show a lot of strenght raising turn and even thought villain donks river. Even for weak flushes that situation would be bad. Straight is an easy fold.
Originally posted by ovatsuG21
This hand is kind an easy one it surprises me a lots seeing people saying that river is a call. It's an easy fold!!
The standart gameplan against an unknown NL5 player in a bvb spot in that runout will be:
PReflop - With reads 8To bb vs sb can be either fold call or 3bet. In that situation 3betting is risky and loose with no info but either calling or folding is fine
Postflop - The main mistake was calling that flop bet in such wet board, raise there is a MUST! You protect, extract value and in blindwars people don't respect raises that much and that makes his calling and some possible bluff 3bet ranges larger. After raise we would bet turn shove river if bricks comeout or pot control if the runout is bad( spade / paired board). In that specific scenario i would bet turn and cbh river AFTER raising the flop.
As played you can't call the river. You did show a lot of strenght raising turn and even thought villain donks river. Even for weak flushes that situation would be bad. Straight is an easy fold.
Agree. What I tried to explain.