TT - $11 The Bigger

Yes. That's a typical spot where we want to protect our hand OTT vs overcards and occasionally get called by worse. OTR it's very close because his line looks like he was checking a) sth like 9x for potcontrol, or b) he's suffering under fancy play syndrom and wanted to trap with QQ+ - Without any reads that he's a maniac I'd probably lay it down for that size, simply because I can't see him having 30% bluffs here (or hands that we beat). Maybe 77-88 but questionable if he would use that sizing then.. maybe the others agree / know better than me

Preflop: 3bet bigger ~2,1k
(you are playing ~40bb effective, and you don't have a hand where you just want to isolate villain with, such as KTs-QTs, or a suited wheel, to play headsup, you want value as well -> he can/will even flat you with all his pocket pairs either way)

Post flop:
Fire flop and turn to check back river, as mentioned above - protect against broadway cards (A/K/Q most likely ~ 12 outs).

After checking the turn river becomes a quessing game:

I assume he plays this way with:
- JJ, occasionally QQ ( ~lets say total 8 combo's)
- T9s (2 combo's), occasionally A9s ( ~lets say total 3 combo's),
- 99 1 combo, 66 (3 combo's), 22 (3 combo's)
- 88-77 makes sense, although river action does not follow with his line so I would most likely discount these
- 87s (4 combo's)
- Random AQ/AJ ( ~likely about 12 combo's)

Of his most likely range you win against 16 of his 36 combo's , i.e. about 40% of the time. ->

You'll need about 30% equity pure pot-odds wise, however his sizing also shows strength making me fold fairly happy