So, I'm not really a blog writer as such. I've really barely written anything on the subject of poker. This is my first time and so we'll break new ground together. I hope, though, that you agree with my musings here.
I best address the question in the title first. No, I don't think online poker is rigged. I don't have any proof as such that can deal with the thousands of conspiracy theories out there but the statistics seem to back up the fact. According to poker tracker, I've been dealt pocket aces about as many times as I can expect to and they seem to win, from an all in pre-flop, about as many times as they should.
I mean I have seen bad beats - we all have - but what really intrigued me was: I seemed to perform far better at poker when I was playing within my bankroll. I've lost my bankroll a couple of times (never ghastly sums but not amounts I need to discuss) and it always seems to happen when I don't follow bank roll management rules.
"HANG ON!" I hear you cry. "So far you've said nothing that I couldn't read in countless other articles."
So I'll make a hypothesis for you:
Poker only appears rigged when following bad bankroll management.
I'd be interested to see whether you agree or disagree but I believe there are a couple of reasons that this is backed up.
1) The obvious; Variance
So I have a $100 bankroll and enter 2 tournaments for a $50 buy-in
In the first one I run well until the later stages I push with Aces and someone else pushes with Jacks - He catches a set and I am busted out.
In the second - I get aces again and once again get it all in pre-flop: this time I go bust against KQ suited that manages a flush.
and yet, If I were playing in $3 MTTs (argue whether this is good or bad BR management amongst yourselves elsewhere), the same thing could happen in the first two tournaments but the next 8 that you get aces in will win for you and suddenly you're up rather than down.
BUT this stuff has been rammed down our throats anyway, it's our own choice if we chose to ignore it.
2) Psychology
Now I suggest you take note of this one, it's less well published. Bad bankroll management WILL throw you onto tilt and will emphatically effect your play. If you were planning on taking a Saturday playing the game and have $10 in your account and start attacking the $3 MTTs you will, more often than not, notice you are not playing optimally. Think about it, we all love aces but as our M-factor or CSI or whatever you call it, get lower - it's common knowledge that we no longer have the comfort of being tight. We have to play the less good hands to stay afloat.
Now! You're sitting there with a marginal hand that has a positive EV push but you are agonising over the decision, which should by rights be trivial.
"It's my last $3 - If I lose now I will go broke" and if you are taking time to consider the trivial push like there is a thought behind it then you are definitely folding too many marginal hands.
I have noticed that when I play with insufficient bankroll, my results are poorer than when I play with a reasonable bankroll. It's just how the psychology will grab you. If you are the sort who will play his last $3 tournament the same way as $3 from a $1K bank roll, then bravo to you to.
This is not meant to be preachy but it is meant to point out that inferior bankroll management may affect play.
In conclusion - Bankroll management doesn't have to be as black and white as some sites will have you believe but it isn't far off. Find out what games you can beat and make sure you have a decent roll for them. You'll find that your graphs look more positive in the long run. Also, remember, bad bankroll management will affect most people in the way they play - don't let this be you.
since i play the $1 sng.
