Villain is a reg 19/12 with AgF 5.0 in 381 hands, with 44% steal from BU in 27 hands. I know by experience playing with him that he has a loose range of steal I think 89s is a hand that plays relatively well against his calling range vs 3bet... or not?
Pushing would be better, to take over 20% ish of my stack in chips?
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $50(BB) Replayer
SB ($1,113)
Hero ($1,306)
UTG ($2,805)
CO ($1,785)
BTN ($1,991)
Dealt to Hero 8♦ 9♦
fold, fold, BTN raises to $125, fold, Hero raises to $299, fold
Hero shows 8♦ 9♦
Hero wins $305
Having the hypotesis of getting all in and if:
Villain calling range vs push = 10% (in a 44% steal), approximately 1/4 times. So I win the pot 3/4 of times = 230 chips.
If he calls me, 89s against his 10% range is approximately 1/3 of victories. When he calls me, if I win the run I get 2090 chips, otherwise I'll loose 1250 chips. I.e., I'd win approximately 3*230+1* 2090 + 2*1250= 660 chips in the long run. Is this calculation correct or not?
Thanks!
