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Equity postflop in a 3 bet pot IP raise-pushing Villain cbet.

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rvnikauj
Joined: 03.02.2017

Edit: Messed up the formulas. Will repost soon!


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Could you explain the formula a bit?
What does the stack/cbet mean there? Is it our effective stack size? And how about those %? Are those the size of villains donk?

I made an example calculation: Villain opens 3bb, hero 3bets to 9bb and villain calls -> pot will be about 20bb. Villain donks 1/2pot so the pot is about 30bb.
If hero shoves the rest of his stack to 30bb pot, he needs 45% equity if we assume he doesn't have any fold equity. Still I don't see any percentage below 50% in your graph and that cannot be true because when there is dead money in the pot we can shove with less than 50% equity.

So your required equities seem high? But still you say you would raise shove with a gutshot that has less than 20% equity?
I think raising a donk is a bad strategy anyway. Those donks can be strong too. If villain decides to stack off, you will usually face sets and have very little equity.
I would say you usually have only about 20% equity vs villains donk calling range there, so that means villain would have to fold about 65% vs your raise shove.


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rvnikauj
Joined: 03.02.2017

Originally posted by la55i
Could you explain the formula a bit?
What does the stack/cbet mean there? Is it our effective stack size? And how about those %? Are those the size of villains donk?

I made an example calculation: Villain opens 3bb, hero 3bets to 9bb and villain calls -> pot will be about 20bb. Villain donks 1/2pot so the pot is about 30bb.
If hero shoves the rest of his stack to 30bb pot, he needs 45% equity if we assume he doesn't have any fold equity. Still I don't see any percentage below 50% in your graph and that cannot be true because when there is dead money in the pot we can shove with less than 50% equity.

So your required equities seem high? But still you say you would raise shove with a gutshot that has less than 20% equity?
I think raising a donk is a bad strategy anyway. Those donks can be strong too. If villain decides to stack off, you will usually face sets and have very little equity.
I would say you usually have only about 20% equity vs villains donk calling range there, so that means villain would have to fold about 65% vs your raise shove.

Yeah you are right, I messed up the formulas. I have to build them up again.


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