Isn't it more logical to just call those weak flushes and see the showdown. With raising he will get calls only from better hands...
I do not agree that he will raise weaker hands.
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I think it's fine to go check-raise for value even with smaller bdflush here heads up, late positions, these stacks, this run out and action. His value-range (nor your calling range) cannot be just nuts here.
Originally posted by SeagalSteven
I think it's fine to go check-raise for value even with smaller bdflush here heads up, late positions, these stacks, this run out and action. His value-range (nor your calling range) cannot be just nuts here.
Seagal you're wrong.
We're never ahead here.
Filter your database for river raises on 3 to a flush and check yourself.
Originally posted by DecMate
We're never ahead here.
I think this is not true. At least it should not be true.
It might be a bit more accurate at NL2.
I think overall this hand was played fine. When we consider general tendencies (villains probably are not bluffing enough here) I think calling is close. I wouldn't say it is bad to call because villain should have some bluffs and he can also be raising with weaker value hands since our runner runner flush is quite disguised.
However when something is close between folding or calling, I think folding is the better option.
What bluffs are you dreaming about?
We make a solid 3/4 bet and villain pushes for 4x... I am not sure he will do this with Kx flush and you keep talking about bluffs...
Originally posted by la55i
Originally posted by DecMate
We're never ahead here.I think this is not true. At least it should not be true.
It might be a bit more accurate at NL2.
I wasn't being completely literal. Obviously not EVERY single time someone raises on the river in this spot they have the nuts. But the jist of what i'm saying is 9 out of 10 times we're behind (aka always) so folding is optimal.
@Seagul
what limits do you play?:f_cool:
IMO the villain could have some sort of A-high fd (hearts), trips, or basicly hitting a straight on the river doing this. Its hard to put Hero at DiamondFD at this spot. He could ofc. also have flush with A/K-high. I find it to be a tough spot vs unknown, but I would also probably call. Not sure about the flop c-bet though.
I think some aggro guys could easily try to rep a flush here. This really doesn't look like hero has a flush. Especially if villain would only one diamond, Ad, in his hand. That would be perfect to rep a flush and bluff because he blocks nut flushes.
Because hero's flush is a bit disguised I could see villain also raising with some weaker flushes or sets as value. That would be maybe quite stupid of him but hey this is NL5.
I agree that this is a very strong line from villain and it is too rarely a bluff. Population tendencies show that most of the guys at the micros are not balanced when raising rivers. But from the theoretical point of view we should include at least some bluffs in his range.
All that I'm saying is that we should consider that 1) villain might be a good player and be raising balanced 2) he could be a total fish and raise with J high flush.
Theoretically this would be a call (I believe) but because the population tendencies are so strong we can make an exploitative fold.
I can agree with folding, but I don't agree with your thinking. Calling can't be terribly wrong if it is theoretically correct. And we can not say that thinking about villains bluffs is dreaming.
My thinking is that in theory lots of things apply to the hand. In practicality (the hand we're talking about), they don't.
We have no stats/reads on the villian, we therefore lean towards population tendencies, which is the correct thinking in this situation.
Which dictates a fold.
Which is what i said originally.
@nitrol and @SeagalSteven I partialy agree with both of you. As nitrol said ppl at NL5 just don't bluff shove river nearly enough that you can put them on bluff. They always have it. That said, he can have many worse flushes on river and I don't see why wouldn't he shove it. We can have so many overpairs, two pairs and sets that it would be wrong if he is not shoving here. All in all I think with 3rd nuts call should be standard. Now if it's one card flush, I'm more likely to fold then to call, but 2 card Q high backdoor flush is never a fold in my eyes.